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Fed...See You Later QE...Hello Forever Low Rates......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 30, 2014 - 06:43 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Wow. An interesting day. Really, really interesting. Why? Because the Fed Yellen took away QE, but did not promise more. Of course, that will change if the market falls hard over time. She'll use QE again only if there's an emergency. Her emergency is a falling stock market. Morgan Stanley (MS). Yellen also did what made the most sense of all. She once again promised to keep rates near or at zero "for a considerable period of time". That basically means until we see the economy truly recover, which also coincides with global economic situations away from home. China, Japan, and the entire Euro Zone, on some level, is struggling and she knows this has an adverse affect on our economy.

When she feels the rest of the world has their act together she will then begin to remove the zero interest rate environment. Then the market can truly fall. When the Fed makes these comments, especially when the world was wondering if she would really pull the plug on QE, the market reacts quite violently. Today was no different once she made her comments. We fell a ten handle on the S&P 500, only to see it get mostly recovered before falling one more time, and then recovering once again. When all was said and done we had some red arrows but nothing terrible. Let's face it, the market has known this was coming for quite some time, and that's why it didn't crater out the way many expected. In the end it was all nothing from nothing. She let everyone know for several months this was coming by the level from which she was cutting back. Ten billion monthly overall. So now we know her intentions. The market's reaction was seen for the short term, but now we have to see how things follow through in the next few days.

It's back folks. Froth at its best. The bull-bear spread at 30.7%, which is a bad number, but if we look underneath the surface it's worse, much worse since the bears are down to 16.3%. Horrific. This normally means that the bulls need to be taught another bad lesson. That would normally be the case, but you have to ask yourself if that's the case now, since rates seem to be the king of all things related to stock market growth. The Fed is protecting with rates as we know, so you have to wonder if the froth is going to knock the bulls down, or whether the rate situation will hold things up longer than they normally would or should.

It does tell us that you should never let your guard down. It says don't get carried away with complacency. It doesn't mean you can't find good plays, but it also says to make sure you don't over play and that you should always keep tight stops on anything you do to the long side. It didn't take long to ramp froth back up. We were down to the 23% area before ramping back up to the first red flag number of 30%. After this week, if the market holds up, and that's a big if, the number will be back well in to the 30's once again, and that's just not the best of news for the bulls. Bottom line is froth is back. Bears are hard to find, and that's a warning flag to not get too optimistic with too many long set-ups. Pick a spot here and there, but be careful and appropriate.

The S&P 500 is playing on either side of 1975, or the critical long-term up-trend line. No blow out above, which is what the bulls want to see. No crash out, which is what the bears want to see. The futures are down this evening, but who knows where they'll be in the morning. QE is over, but rates will stay down there. Anything goes here folks.

Don't marry yourself to any one way of thinking. Let's take it a day at a time, until this market makes a clear move, and, even then, you may not be able to trust it. There's a lot going on out there from froth to rates, and this makes the environment difficult to say the least. Lots of whipsaw, and that's never too much fun, nor is that easy to trade. Earnings aren't bad this evening with financial stocks holding well after hours with earnings from V. Hard to kill a market that has good news from those financial stocks. Anything truly goes here. Take it slow.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2014

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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