Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Nov 17, 2014 - 09:56 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold moved substantially higher on Friday and the volume was huge. The session was both significant and bullish, but the question remains if such show of strength can be a start of the next big move. As we promised in Friday's second alert, we analyzed the situation thoroughly over the weekend and are reporting to you today.


Let's jump right into charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

First of all, let's take a look at something that didn't change - the situation in the USD Index.

$USD US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ICE

The Index remains in the triangle pattern. The important thing to keep in mind is the intra-day attempt to break above the upper border of the pattern, which was invalidated shortly thereafter.

If the USD Index breaks down from the triangle patter, it's not likely to fall much further - there are short-term support levels at the Oct. high and the rising black support line. We don't expect the USD Index to move visibly below the 86.4 - 87 area. We would expect the rally to resume after this area is reached.

On the other hand, if the USD Index does indeed rally right away, then it could move much higher before it really tops (above 89).

Theoretically, this means that gold has limited short-term upside and bigger downside. Does it?

The significant downside is definitely present, as there was no move above the declining (red, dashed) resistance line and gold didn't close the week above the previous 2013 low (in terms of weekly closing prices).

On the short-term chart we see that gold corrected to another important retracement level - the 50% one. Is it enough to stop the rally? It's certainly possible, but after such a sizable daily rally on strong volume, we can expect some more strength in the coming day(s). So, how high can gold go? To the following resistance levels, of course. The next one is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and a bit higher we have the declining short-term resistance line. It seems likely to us that one of them will stop the rally, as they more or less correspond to the support levels in the USD Index. Which of them is more likely? It's a touch call at this time - it seems that focusing on other markets / ratios and waiting for a confirmation is a good idea at this time.

Speaking of ratios - can the gold:USD Index ratio tell us something?

Yes, but that's generally a confirmation of what we've already written above - that gold could move a bit higher before it continues to slide. In this case, we would see a move back to the previously broken horizontal support and then a continuation of the decline.

$GOLD:UDN Gold (EOD) / PS DB US$ Bearish CME/NYSE

From the non-USD perspective, we have no decisive signal. On one hand we've just seen a weekly reversal on strong volume, which is a bullish sign, but on the other hand we've just seen another move back to the previously broken rising support/resistance line (the breakdown was not invalidated, so the implications remain bearish).

Let's move to silver.

From the long-term perspective, the consolidation seems to continue, which is in tune with what we saw in April 2013. The analogy to this month has bearish implications as back then declines followed. Please note that silver spent a few weeks trading back and forth before its decline continued, so just because silver is not moving lower again is not concerning.

SLV iShares Silver Trust NYSE

In Friday's first alert, we wrote the following:

By opening short positions now, we would risk being thrown out of them if PMs rallied temporarily and sharply before declining again. Please recall that silver has been known for such counter-trend rallies right before plunging.

On the short-term SLV ETF chart we see that the rally was very significant on a daily basis. It was definitely good to watch this from the sidelines instead of keeping a short position open. Silver moved to the 20-day moving average, but does it mean that silver can't move higher? It could - it's currently correcting a huge decline, so we wouldn't be surprised to see a move even higher - to the declining resistance line - before the upswing is over. Please note that in October silver also moved temporarily above the 20-day moving average only to decline shortly thereafter.

$SILVER:UDN Silver (EOD) / PS DB US$ Bearish CME/NYSE

Examining silver from the non-USD perspective provides us with the same outcome as the analysis of the gold charts. Namely, the corrective upswing is likely not over yet, but it's not likely to take metals much higher either.

Let's take a look at gold stocks.

Gold miners have their resistance level relatively high, but since they are ones that have recently dropped particularly significantly, it's no wonder that the correction is also big. Our comments from the Nov. 10 alert remain up-to-date:

Gold stocks moved higher last week after reaching our initial target area but that's no proof that the decline is completely over. During the 2008 decline there were sharp corrective upswings as well, but they didn't mean that the decline was over. The current decline has been significant, so a corrective upswing (a pause within the decline) would be something normal.

How high could gold stocks go before the decline is resumed? It's a tough call as the market has been very volatile lately, but at this time we wouldn't rule out a move back to the previously broken support at the 2013 low. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent decline is very close to it, so it seems quite likely that the 185-190 level would stop a rally.

Junior miners can also tell us something (more precisely, their performance relative to other stocks).

GDXJ:SPY Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners / S&P 500 SPDRs NYSE

The above chart features the GDXJ to SPY ratio, which means that it will move higher when juniors rally faster than the general stock market. The volume is actually the ratio of volumes. The things that are particularly interesting are situations when we see sudden spikes in the volume (a ratio of volumes). This is when juniors are a particularly "hot topic" - of course on a relative basis. The useful tendency is that these times very often precede or mark important price tops in the precious metals sector. The spikes that we saw in the last 2 weeks were historically high. They were so huge that they made the spikes seen before 2013 barely visible on the above chart. Consequently, the bearish medium-term implications are clearly in place and based on them we could expect another downswing soon, but not necessarily right away. This is in tune with what we concluded based on the analysis of the previous charts.

Summing up, the precious metals sector continues to correct its recent downswing, while remaining in the medium-term downtrend, and it seems that it will move a bit higher before turning south again.

As always, we will continue to monitor the situation and report to you - our subscribers - accordingly. We will aim to multiply the recent profits and will quite likely open another trading position shortly - stay tuned.

To summarize:

Trading capital (our opinion): No positions
Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

We were bullish on gold as far medium-term is concerned for the vast majority of the time until April 2013. After that we have generally been expecting lower prices. Are we gold bears? No - we view this decline as lengthy, but temporary. We expect gold to rally in the coming years, but instead of following the buy-and-hold approach, we exit the long-term precious investments at the most unfavorable times and re-enter when things look good again, thus saving a lot of money. Additionally, our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts help you profit from the short-term price swings. We invite you to examine our premium services and encourage you to sign up for our free mailing list today.

You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today.

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in