Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Was The Safe Haven This Week

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Dec 12, 2014 - 03:03 PM GMT

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Commodities

This week precious metals continued their recovery, with gold up $35 at $1220 and silver up about $1 at $17 this morning, thus building on the improved trend since gold bottomed nearly $90 lower at $1132 on 7 November.

Gold seems to be finding support at the 50-day moving average (MA), which currently stands at $1198 and now rising. The 200-day MA is at $1246, which suggests supply at this level could cap the rise for the moment: these levels matter to technical traders. On Comex there is evidence of some buying of gold futures, as opposed to bear closing, which is reflected in the rise in net contracts for the managed Money category shown in the chart below.


Managed Money net positions

This net long position at the 2nd December is still on the low side, compared with an average of 115,000 contracts net long over the last eight years, telling us that despite a rise of $90 in five weeks, there are still buyers out there yet to buy. Silver tells a similar story.

Market attention was not so much on precious metals this week, but on volatile markets nearly everywhere else: oil, currencies, stocks and bonds. Oil is a disaster, Brent having fallen over 9% on the week. In currencies the Japanese yen weakened to just under 122 to the US dollar, close to the ¥123 level some major traders think the yen's collapse could become unstoppable. Instead, probably with official intervention it strengthened on Wednesday and Thursday by over 3.5%, a big move for a major currency.

China decided to rein in interbank lending to stop banks circumventing credit controls, which hit Chinese equity markets hard, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 8% on Monday and Tuesday before recovering somewhat. And the Athens stock market suffered its biggest fall since 1987, falling 20% after a snap presidential election was called that could threaten EU unity. Volatility in other equity markets has been high as well, with big falls from Monday to Wednesday being partially retraced subsequently.

It is worth mentioning these moves, because until recently capital markets would have marked gold and silver down on the pretext that bonds are the preferred safe haven. Gold is now performing well at a time of exceptional dollar strength, which is the opposite of how the relationship has worked for some considerable time and bodes well for a rally into the New Year, so long as it doesn't get knocked for year-end valuations.

In other news, Chinese wholesale demand last week was 38.36 tonnes, down from 53 tonnes the week before. This may have been due to the tightness of supply in London when gold forward rates were negative.

Next week

Monday. UK: CBI Industrial Trends. US: Empire State Survey, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, NAHB Builders Survey, Net Long-Term TICS flows.
Tuesday. Eurozone: Flash Composite PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment. UK: CPI, Input Prices, ONS House Prices, Output Prices. US: Building Permits
Wednesday. UK: Average Earnings, BoE MPC Minutes, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate. Eurozone: HICP, Labour Cost Index. US: CPI, Current Account, FOMC Fed Funds Rate
Thursday. UK: Retail Sales. US: Initial Claims, Leading Indicator, Philadelphia Fed Survey.
Friday. Japan: All Industry Activity Index, Leading Indicator (Final). Eurozone: Current Account. UK: Public Sector Borrowing, CBI Distributive Trades.

Alasdair Macleod

Head of research, GoldMoney

Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com

Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online.

© 2014 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Alasdair Macleod Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules