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Oil Prices And The Waziristan Republic - BEWARE OF THE AKOND OF SWOT

Politics / GeoPolitics Dec 17, 2014 - 05:13 PM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop


Does He Beat His Wife With a Gold-topped Cane?
When she lets the gooseberries grow too ripe – or rot? The rot accelerated in royal (or caliph) fashion  on 16th of December. Financial markets were in something of a profitable tizwas for short sellers of oil futures and Russian rouble futures – a money now AKA as Russian Rubble – but the sheer horror of the Pakistani school atrocity trumped the financial massacre.

Strangely or not, the Swat or Swot Valley crisis still swirls in Paistani politics. Incredibly or not, Pakistani political if not public reaction to the primitive and brutal massacre of about 130 children and 9 teachers in a Pakistan Army school by the Pakistani "wing" of the Taliban, has frequently included "so what?".Epic battles in 2009 between Taliban fighters and the Pakistan Army for control of Swat's largest town, Mingora, resulted in a de facto reinforcement of the Taliban;claim that it is a military as well as political or ethnic and religious organization, using terror. As a military organization, it is engaged in a war to the finish with the Pakistani state.

Plenty of political forces in Pakistan will say the school massacre was "in fact" caused by India, Israel or the USA. Which is Taliban propaganda. The only goal of these Dark Forces, goes the propaganda,  is to destroy the Pakistani nation – which is the Taliban goal! Pakistan is almost exactly the same age as Israel or India, but somewhat younger than the breakaway ex-British colony called the USA. The "so what?" wing of Pakistani political forces, spanning a surprisingly huge range, can be given our suggestion that Pakistan isn't much younger or older than the "failed states" of Libya, Iraq and Syria. How are they doing today? We didn't even mention Somalia!

For sure and certain, the Taliban, in its present format and life-and-deathstyle is also a young thing – which can also go down the drain of History, rather easily. In other words, taking only "the failed states", do they exist as realistic and credible nation states? If not, Pakistan can go down the same one-way drain they got sucked into. Inch'allah.

Telescoping Time
One theory we can suggest is that in the space of around 15 years since about year 2000, the world has changed more than in the previous 50 years. Or longer. All kinds of questions and theories which would have been impossible and laughable around the year 2000, and instantly dismissed, are realistic today. For example and rather clearly – and rathe hard to deny – the Russian ruble's collapse on Dec 16th 2014 time traveled Russia back to the year 1998 and dumped it there.

Check up what happened then. The 11th of Sept 2001 was not so far ahead and was coming! The Russian and Asian financial-economic crises were major events.

All private sector investment in Russia, henceforth, is basically impossible with bank base rates at 17% and effectibe "high street bank" rates north of 22% a year. Unsurprisingly, on 17 December, the Russian finance ministry denied this simple fact. The USA and its EU28 allies decided the currency war against Russia, rather certainly, but then "the markets" ran out of control, driven by that traditional driver of Purr Greed.

Putin will decide the sequels and will not have the time to "hang in and sit it out". Concerning oil prices, we can suggest here and now that Putin does have the theoretical Zero Option – or a total cutoff of oil and gas exports to Europe. Let 'em freeze their butts while they gloat about destroying the Russian economy!. Also known as Mutually Assured Destruction, this would also avoid moving up to the nuclear military stage of MAD. The sweet spot that the Taliban and its lookalikes have for Apocalypse could play out in the financial-economic arena. The Akond of Swot was "rather severe" about how we should respond to aggression.

Selling that "MAD economics strategy" to the Russian people, especially the Twitter-using consumerist middle classes might be hard to manage, we can concede.

Oil Prices and the Waziristan Republic
Why do oil prices fall even faster and lower, when the Russian ruble tanks? We could ask Goldman Sachs and the State Dept about that, but we don't need to talk about oil prices/, We only have to note that in 1998, with oil prices rarely hitting $15 a barrel, plenty of wiseakers including editorialists at "The Economist" forecast oil prices by 2005 at around $5 a barrel. How could Saudi Arabia finance terror war in Syria and Iraq, with prices that low? That would be fantastic!

As an aside, we can forecast that natural gas prices in Asia and Europe have quite a long way, down, to tank. The upside, except for gold, does not exist!

John Kerry has been especially stern about the Taliban bloodletting, tearing himself away from being happy that "lethal military aid" will be supplied by the US to the Kiev government (of Flash Mob fame), to tell the world that the Taliban massacre of schoolchildren of Dec 16th marks "a low point for Humanity". Jumping back a little more than 15 years, in 1998 Naweez Sharif said that Pakistanis "would eat grass" rather than stop the national nuclear weapons program, in response to the Clinton administration threatening sanctions against Pakistan for its "test explosions', exactly coinciding with India's "test explosions". Israel's "tests" were somewhat earlier, and North Korea's were somewhat later.

The western mainstream media, on a regular basis whenever Pakistan shows signs of melt down into warring internal repiblics such as Waziristan and Baluchistan, and its disappearance as a nation state, carries somber reports and editorials about the Taliban getting its hands on nucleae weapons. To be sure this is rather certainly more of a threat to regional and world peace, than Iran getting its hands on nuclear weapons, by producing them itself.

What's the linkage? Producing nuclear weapons obligatorily needs nuclear reactors. Producing electricity for citizens and the eocnomy does not obligatorily need NPPs. As simple as that and as complicated as that. Due to the double legacy of nuclear power and nuclear weapons, Pakiston "cannot fall apart". The same applies to North Korea and Iran, for example, also for India and Israel, or the USA and Russia.

One of the more strident bits of lying propaganda from the Nuclear Lobby is that "nuclear power saves oil" – coal for sure, natural gas also, but producing electricity from oil is Sotheby's technology – the  antiques business! However, when oil prices are kept up to the "nice price" set by Goldman Sachs and the IEA – over $100 a barrel – the Nuclear Lobby propaganda "seems to make sense".

Unconventional Weapons and Tactics
UWAT deserves to be as well known as SWAT, which were used in the Swat or Swot War, or the First War of Swot. Reports by a former Nato director of CBW (chemical and biological weapons), Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, says that ISIS is launching bombs containing live scorpions as their latest terror weapon in Iraq. Canisters of the creatures are blasted into towns and villages using mortar-type launch tubes. The very simple-minded desire to do the maximum harm possible is clearly on view, meaning that nuclear weapons are surely and certainly on the Dream List of Must Have's of the Islamic terror "community", fraternity, or conspiracy.

Obviously the easiest way to acquire the "N" to include with the "CB"- and avoiding the hard work of developing and using the science and technology – is to steal the State which owns them. As we know from ISIS antics in Syria and Iraq, the Youth Jihadis or Punk Killers are only good for pillage, murder, and theft – so anything to do with hard work is Ungodly, for them.

This may or may not be a racial trait or characteristic, or simple laziness and stupidity, but we can be rather sure that in the short term, the Islamic terrorists are able to "acquire" live scorpions to use as anti-civilian weapons! Bed bugs next!  As already proven in Syria by al Nusra (and probably other rebels, as well as Damascus' armed forces), if they have chemical weapons put in their hands, or they steal them, they can kill civilians with them.  But anythig more than that exceeds their small mental capacities.

This of course suggests the best way to cleanse the world of Punk Killers – which will be through the use of UWAT. It is not for me to suggest which might be the best – the urgency is to start trying them out on the ground!

By Andrew McKillop


Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2014 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

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