Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Nothing From Nothing.... Headaches Still Out... Bears Still Not Getting It Done.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Mar 28, 2015 - 05:28 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Logic. The one thing you should never apply to the stock market. Play what you see, as I always say, not what logic dictates. We can say logically that all the headaches we know exist from froth to negative divergences should be killing this market. P/E's alone enough to get the job done. That doesn't mean it's what we will actually see. Logic says one thing. Price is saying another for now. It's why I always say don't let emotion make you force trades that aren't there. It's so tempting to short this market with aggression. Part of me wants to do that but price action just isn't occurring in a way that says it's safe to do just that. I only play what the market tells me, but right now the market isn't telling me anything at all worthwhile.


There's not anything to trade on with safety. Cash to me is the best position, but that doesn't mean it really is. If you individually can find trades that make sense I wouldn't blame you one bit for going in to that trade, whether it be long or short. Just keep stops tight enough. Don't do what I did with Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) thinking a great company can't sell too hard. It can and does. Don't be me. Keep those stops appropriate. So for now we're nowhere. The bears have done nothing significant, but cause a minor pullback, which has the market flat for the year. Technically they've done nothing to turn things bearish. No gaps lower either. Just nothing from nothing overall. We're in no man's land for now. No fun. but it is what it is.

If we break down the market more from sector to sector and even stock to stock there are some bearish signs, but nothing definitive, yet, since this has happened before only to see miraculous recoveries out of the blue. Many leaders throughout the market world in varying sectors have broken down through 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages only to back test, but then fail and head back down. That's becoming more normal than we've seen in many months if not years. Somehow the market still hasn't broken, yet, but we are seeing more of that from individual stocks. If that trend continues maybe, just maybe the bears will celebrate down the road. I wouldn't hold my breath. They haven't celebrated in so long they may have forgotten how.

We are seeing more and more bad earnings reports and more and more poor economic reports. The market finds a way around it by saying it's the weather. Why not. Everyone blames the weatherman. Why should that be any exception for the stock market. We saw some bad, pre-report warnings this week, but none worse than the one we heard from semiconductor leader Sandisk Corp. (SDNK). The stock was taken apart, and that's the problem with individual stocks for the moment. No one knows when an unexpected announcement will take place from any individual stock, making it easier on the soul, if you have to buy, to buy ETF's. At least there's a measure of safety about how much you can lose.

The SPY, or the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), or the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ), seem to me to be the best way to be long if you must own something, or the itch to be in overwhelms you. With the economy clearly on the decline, weather related, or not, it seems the risk has moved up the ladder once again. Be careful what you get involved with. If you do own stocks, try to get one that has already reported and said things were fine. Also, avoiding froth stocks seems best, not because of their overall health, but because if a froth stock warns, you better look out below. No mercy on anything that's frothy and says things are deteriorating. This is a very risky environment, and, thus, you should treat it that way. Nothing is safe. Nothing is bearish either at this point in time. Go slow and be smart. Keep those stops tight.

Have a nice weekend.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in