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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

U.S. Housing Market Strong Numbers in Perspective

Housing-Market / US Housing May 20, 2015 - 12:29 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Housing-Market

Following today's better than expected housing numbers (See Housing Starts and Permits Surge Most in Seven Years) Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives pinged me with these comments.

Mish - I started tracking these for the first time today - complete historical data. These are two of the noisiest series of all time.


Take a look at the charts, especially the population-adjusted versions. You'll see why you need at least a 3-month moving average to get an idea of the real trend direction and slope. And check out where the latest data points put us relative to the total series.

Starts: New Residential Housing Starts Surge in April
Permits: New Residential Building Permits Rise 10.1% in April

Bottom line: take the April data with a grain of salt ... maybe a tablespoon full.

Privately Owned Housing Starts

New Privately Owned Housing Units Started

Housing Starts as Percent of Population

Housing Starts as a Percent of the Population
above from Doug Short

Here is a chart and comment I posted yesterday in Home Builders Optimistic Despite Decline in Traffic; Housing Market Index Declines.

NAHB Housing Market Index

Housing Market Index through April 2015)

If you ask the builders, sales conditions are very good with a score of 59. Sales expectations rose to an excellent score of 64. Meanwhile, actual lookers score a very poor 39.

Average it all together and you get the totally useless chart above.

Housing Market Index Components

Yesterday afternoon I asked the NAHB for the subcomponent data. Here is a chart I put together today from that data.

NAHB HMI

Note the actual traffic of prospective buyers vs. sales expectations six months out.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2015 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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