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Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally - Which Direction Next?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 May 21, 2015 - 12:53 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish


The U.S. stock market indexes were virtually flat on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following recent move up. The S&P 500 index has managed to reach yet another new all-time high at the level of 2,134.72, before closing down 0.1%. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,130-2,135. On the other hand, support level is at 2,115-2,120, marked by previous resistance level. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly negative, with index futures currently down 0.1-0.3%. The main European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed number, Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades within an intraday consolidation, following yesterday's move down. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,110-2,115, marked by recent local lows. On the other hand, resistance level remains at 2,125-2,130, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows a similar path, as it fluctuates along the level of 4,490. The nearest important level of support is at around 4,480, and resistance level is at 4,500-4,520, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its fluctuations along its record highs yesterday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (2,098.27, S&P 500 index), as we expect a downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,140, and potential profit target is at 1,980. You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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