Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Oversold Bounce...Big Picture Still Nowhere...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jun 11, 2015 - 10:05 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Yes, today was great for the market. A nice healthy move higher after we double tapped at oversold on the short-term, sixty-minute index charts. A rally was due, and we certainly got one today, but you have to ask yourself if the bounce is truly relevant or not. It may be over time, but, for now, all it did was put us back a little over the middle of the range that we've traded in most recently, which has been 2070 and 2134, although big-picture the level is 2040 to 2134. So we're mostly in the middle now of the most recent range. We saved ourselves from dropping down and testing the dreaded 2040 level, which the bulls want no part of having to deal with. A loss of 2040 would be bearish, so now they can relax a bit, but still there is nothing to celebrate other than the save.


Today is not bullish nor bearish. None of the action we've seen over the past five plus months is anything worth talking about. Just meandering about to nowhere with emotions getting thrown all over the place. Over time, if we do get one more pullback, we should see strong, positive divergences form on the key sixty-minute index charts which would set things up quite nicely for the bulls. The daily charts clearly unwound enough to allow a breakout over 2134 in time if we do indeed get those positive divergences on the next move lower. So celebrate if you're bullish today but don't overdo it as we're still not in the best place technically.

We started with the gap up this morning and after a few attempts by the bear to bring it down, the bulls took full control and enjoyed the type of candle stick that gives the market hope down the road but clearly offers up no guarantees. The candles large enough to take out a few of the most recent selling days. Most importantly, we saw the oscillators on all the critical time frames impulse upward, which verified the price action. Having weak oscillators with strong price action is a major league red flag but that was not the case at all today. Very confirming meaning any move down from here will set things up nicely. One thing that often gets over looked is how oscillators move with price since folks are always so focused ONLY on price movement. The oscillators tell us a lot about the potential for future confirmation.

Whether a given day has hope for further similar action in the days and weeks ahead. Today has to leave the bulls feeling pretty good but that does not mean some tough days can still occur without warning. If we do get one more selling episode with a little force behind it, the daily charts are basically very unwound and thus could make the breakout move due to having loots of room on those key oscillators. You prefer to have things unwound so we're not dealing with having to get very overbought to complete a breakout move. That will not be the case here if the market decides it's time to get up and go. Interesting times the way things are setting up here but there are absolutely no guarantees of anything in this environment.

The weakest sectors are remaining so. Banks the best for now. Rails the worst along with the transports in general, although there's hope there. Try to avoid playing the worst sectors in the hope of catching the big bounce. They're just not cooperating. Why bother with the weak in the hope of something changing when you can go the areas of the market that are showing true strength. 2040 is massive support. 2134 is massive resistance. We're in between and could stay that way for longer than any of us would like. It's already testing us emotionally, so if you play, stay with strength and avoid the bear market areas of the market. Do what feels best to you, of course, but that's how I would approach things. Don't get over extended, but keep some scratch in the game.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in