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Fed Dovish Again... Stock Market Froth Coming In.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jun 18, 2015 - 07:03 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market waited patiently for four and a half hours to hear the words of wisdom from our Fed leader, Janet Yellen. What would she say regarding rates in the moment, and for the future was all anyone cared about. She said no rate hikes for now. When grilled in her conference she said she would raise rates soon, but that she had no intentions of raising too quickly under any circumstances, and that a rate-hike cycle was not in the cards. The market always likes hearing that rates will remain low, and although the market knows a rate will likely come this year, it knows it's safe for the foreseeable future.

Nothing in terms of too much too fast. The market was in the red before the news came out. It then moved up some only to come right back down before trying higher yet again. The bears are having a tough time keeping the bulls from getting a bit happy. Nothing ridiculous on the bull's happy meter, but there's enough to keep the chances of an eventual breakout alive. It may be a dream to think it can actually take place, but the bulls did enough work this afternoon to keep some hopes alive. Overall, it was a solid day for the bulls. Again, nothing to get too excited about but a good day nonetheless.

We finally got a number we can talk about with a little joy here in terms of how froth is moving along. It's finally coming in a bit as the bull-bear spread went down to 29%. The third reading below 30% is well over a year and the first since last October. This number has been a thorn in the side of the bulls for quite some time, and I believe a major reason for why this market has gone lateral for nearly six months. The one not-so-great aspect of the report was that all the good news came from bulls pulling in. No decline in bears, but we are seeing more bulls turn agnostic. It's a start, but not what I'd truly like to see in a perfect world. Bears still only barely above 16%.

I want well over 20%, but you can't always get what you won't. At least the Stones think so. That said we have to be happy to see a number below 30%, even if it only lasts for one week. I'm not greedy when it comes to declining froth. I'll take what I can be happy about. It really gets old seeing the number over 30% EVERY week. To be honest, I am a bit disappointed. I was hoping for 27-28%, but it is what it is, and not seeing a 3 or a 4 as the first number works for me. Froth is starting to pull in as folks get more and more frustrated by the lateral handle that's nearly six-months old and showing no signs of letting up.

So, with today's market being what it was, it's no reason to get overly bullish. Not by any means, and it certainly is telling us not to get overly bearish. There is nothing to celebrate for either side. 2134 to 2040 is the range on the S&P 500, and again, anything, and I mean anything, in between is noise to nowhere. If you're long or short it's a matter of luck as much as anything else. Nothing is easy here, nor will it be as time moves onward until we get the directional move that only comes with the break of one of those two key levels. Buying weakness is best. Not getting overly involved is best as well, but, of course, do what feels right to you. Market remains overall without a clear trend.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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