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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

The Presidential Election and What the Gold Price is Saying?

Politics / US Politics Jul 02, 2008 - 02:20 AM GMT

By: David_Vaughn


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWho is Going to be the Next President of the United States ?

Beats me. But I do know that both runners up, Republican and Democrat scare the fool out of me. Bring back the good old days. Reagan was a good president, a motivator and an excellent orator. Clinton was always entertaining. You woke up in the morning just to see what mischief he had gotten into the day before. Actually, I believe its going to be fun watching both Obama and McCain duke it out against one another. And whoever wins will still bring a witches brew of political excitement.

Obama and McCain? I find them both amusing. But seriously folks…Is Obama our savior? Let's read on and find out.

RUSH -  Ladies and gentlemen, what you just heard was the presumptive Democrat presidential nominee wandering aimlessly in desperate hope for a cogent thought.  His point was, he was trying to tell these people in his audience in Cape Girardeau yesterday that our foreign policy is all screwed up because every asset that we need to actually win the war against Islamofascists is in Iraq, and that's a phony war, it shouldn't have happened, we don't even have any Arabic translators for Afghanistan.  And then he quickly realized, wait a minute, they don't speak Arabic there, oh, God, what am I going to do…”

Obama - "I will veto every single beer, um, bill with earmarks." --speaking at the National Small Business Summit , Washington , D.C.” June 10, 2008, politicalhumor

Well then, what about John McCain?

“Among McCain's first unguarded words that morning were, "Where's the !@#% doughnuts?" Before long, he had insulted the French, teased his wife Cindy about a former boyfriend and flogged Democrats and Republicans alike for being bought and paid for by one shameless lobby or another. And it was only 10 a.m. ”

“McCain in the Wall Street Journal and on the campaign trail: "I'm going to be honest; I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated....”

Reading here about these two candidates, do we even have a prayer? We may be doomed regardless of who wins this fall. But what impact will they have on the economy when one of them eventually moves into the White House? Don't know about you, but I'm movin' out to the mountains some where out west. Might be the safest place to be.

“Tax and fiscal policy will loom large in the next president's domestic policy agenda. Nearly all of the tax cuts enacted since 2001 expire at the end of 2010 and the individual alternative minimum tax (AMT) threatens to ensnare tens of millions of Americans. While a permanent fix palatable to both political parties has proven elusive, both candidates have proposed major tax changes.” “Fundamental reform of our tax system is one way to resolve these problems, but because reform creates both winners and losers, the leading presidential candidates have not addressed it seriously. Nonetheless, both candidates have proposed major changes to the nation's tax laws.” “…each candidate promises to broaden the tax base…” “Both candidates have proposed to change the tax treatment of health insurance in important ways.”

And the economy continues to go down, down, down. Along with the US dollar of course.

“Billionaire Warren Buffett has already said he thinks the U.S. economy is in a recession by his definition, and now he said the economy is getting worse. Buffett said all the data he see from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. subsidiaries shows the economy weakening. He said businesses that depend on construction or consumer spending are faring the worst. Buffett also said he thinks inflation is picking up and should be a concern for the Federal Reserve. Earlier this spring, Buffett said he defined a recession as a time when most people and businesses are not doing as well as they were three, six or nine months ago.”

Don't you miss the old days with …what's his name? The previous Fed Chief. Give me a moment…I've got it! Alan Greenspan! Those days seemed so much simpler. Rising stock market, rising house prices. Pump, pump, pump. Those old printing presses were operational 24 hours a day kicking out new money to solve the world's problems. And Greenspan brought his own style of humor. Remember the bubble baths he would take in preparation for a press event?

“Why it will be a long wait for the tide to turn” “The three sectors fundamental to our wellbeing - property, retail and banking - are still falling fast. The economic tide is still ebbing and it will be a long while before it turns.” Dominic Frisby, MoneyWeek

But we are straying from our subject. We were discussing the two bright individuals we have as choice for present this next year. Do I endorse Obama? Do I endorse McCain? Who will help this economy the most when they are elected? Regardless of who wins the next presidential election changes are guaranteed to be in the works.

A new world for America's next president” “ Whoever moves into the Oval Office in January 2009 will have to deal with a significantly different global economy from the one George W. Bush inherited just eight years earlier – and will need to forge a very different set of policies to address it.” “The dollar now has a world-class competitor, the Euro, which accounts for nearly 30 per cent of all international currency reserves, a proportion rising fast.” “First, America's political leaders must recognize that, unless recent improvements in the country's trade balance can be sustained and accelerated, and domestic savings rise sharply, the US will remain heavily dependent on foreign capital in the form of purchases of government or corporate bonds, stocks and direct investment.” 6-26-2008 , Robert Hormats, Jim O'Neill,

The major themes for 2008 appear to be once again taxes and the illegal immigration issue. The United States is at a crossroads and in the middle of a weakening economy. Along with that weakening economy is a lowering of the standard of living. Debt is a central theme as so many are in debt up to their ears and sinking in their over financed homes. Will the election of 2008 represent an opportunity for real change and a new direction? Personally, I believe if either candidate wins the economy is not going to be miraculously made healthier over night. Night continues to fall on this nation with each passing day.

David, - And gold? “Well, while useful in certain industrial applications, gold as a commodity has a unique utility – it is considered as tangible money the world over. It is portable, easily divisible, durable and unquestionably accepted around the world. In an environment of a global crisis in confidence in fiat money, gold will provide a critical function that will only grow in importance in the months and years just ahead. In short, the occasional corrections aside, this show is far from over. How do you protect your assets in times of economic decline? Which investments provide safety when blue-chip stocks, government bonds and mutual funds do not?” D.G.

A new direction and new ideas? I doubt it. Just increased taxation and a furthering of the separation of the classes in this country. The rich as always will become wealthier and the numbers of poor and financially destitute will grow. But have you noticed that neither of the two major candidates has put together and presented a real program that will solve the major crises affecting the U.S. today? Much of the new and growing global economy we see today is merely enriching the wealthiest classes even more and bringing the poor to new levels. The beneficiaries today in this new era are the rich financiers and powerful industrialists. If there is a major shifting of the class that represents Middle America it is the slow and growing transfer of wealth to Asia . The Reagan and both Bush eras have largely succeeded in shifting much of the nation's wealth to the upper income brackets. Today it is the banking class that accounts for the tremendous economic and political power. Lend money at extreme rates of interest? What better way to make money and get the greater return for your assets.

“Gold Futures Surge Most in 16 Months on Inflation Concerns” “June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold surged the most in 16 months on speculation the Federal Reserve won't rush to raise borrowing costs to curb inflation.” “An OPEC official said crude oil may reach $170 a barrel soon.” ``The Fed said that inflation is a major concern, but they're not going to do anything about it, which made gold go ballistic…'' ``The Fed seems to have decided to protect growth by holding rates low and to accept the fact that this period of inflation is inevitable and unstoppable,'' said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Inflation is the lesser of two evils. Investors will increase their positions in gold, and it's likely to continue upward.'' “The Europeans and other central banks seem keenly aware that inflation is a major problem.''

Today in our consumer based economy those with the best paying jobs and prosperous business owners experience the good life. And the rest of society? Let them eat beans. The 1970s saw the real dismantling of economic institutions in the country and catastrophic economic developments. What helped this process along was the removal of the gold-peg to the dollar in 1971. And since then we have become permanently mortgaged to imported Middle East oil. Consumerism is what drives our economy today. And a constant cash flow must be maintained to keep the US economy from collapsing. The process of lending ever greater amounts of money in recent decades was helped along by the buyout, merger and acquisition mania of the 1980s. Now this lending has created disastrous proporations through the creation of equity and hedge funds.

“Can China save America ? Hardly. Economies such as China's and India's are growing fast, but they are still much too small to pull giants such as the United States or Europe out of a swamp, say most economists. For the first time, though, developing countries – now accounting for more than half of global economic growth – could probably ride out the storm afflicting richer nations.” “The U.S. dollar is standing at the edge of a cliff, and most people don't even know it.” “…top Beijing officials have been signaling for at least two years that dollar sales are increasingly imminent.”

Using a credit card often means that a person cannot afford to buy it at the present moment. This act represents a gamble that he or she will be able to pay in the future. Don't you find it puzzling that here in the country of plenty and what is considered the wealthiest country in the world that most people are so poor they cannot afford to buy the things they need and instead have to constantly use credit cards? Banks have created the semblance of prosperity even as inflation grows and the middle class dies. Total debt including all parties now is over 50 trillion dollars. Today we have a monetary system that is entirely propped up by high levels of debt. And how about those gas prices? Oil just hit a record of 142 per barrel.

Oil hits record above $142 a barrel. Oil prices surged to a record above $142 a barrel, driven higher by a cocktail of supply concerns, dollar weakness, inflation fears and fresh turmoil in equity markets - Jun 27 2008,

We are living in the last days of cheap resources and cheap commodities. Gold Letter, Inc. reviews undervalued gold stocks poised to rise in this time of increasing demand.

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By David Vaughn
Gold Letter, Inc.

© Copyright 2008, Gold Letter Inc.

“The Worldwatch Institute, an organization that focuses on environmental, social and economic trends, says the current rate of global demand for resources is unsustainable.”  

The publisher and its affiliates, officers, directors and owner may actively trade in investments discussed in this newsletter. They may have positions in the securities recommended and may increase or decrease such positions without notice. The publisher is not a registered investment advisor. Subscribers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal, tax, accounting or investment-related advice. The news and editorial viewpoints, and other information on the investments discussed herein are obtained from sources deemed reliable, but their accuracy is not guaranteed. © Copyright 2008, Gold Letter Inc.

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