Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
How to Protect Your Site from Bots & Spam? - 21st Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? - 21st Aug 19
Gold and the Cracks in the U.S., Japan and Germany’s Economic Data - 21st Aug 19
The Gold Rush of 2019 - 21st Aug 19
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate - 21st Aug 19
Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold - 21st Aug 19
Top 6 Tips to Attract Followers On SoundCloud - 21st Aug 19
WAYS TO SECURE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE - 21st Aug 19
Holiday Nightmares - Your Caravan is Missing! - 21st Aug 19
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast - 20th Aug 19
The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup - 20th Aug 19
5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker - 20th Aug 19
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Gold Sector Inputs That Actually Matter and Stock Market Refugees

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Dec 12, 2015 - 10:34 AM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

The word play in the title is in reference to the ridiculous fuss over COMEX gold inventory and other promotions masquerading as fundamentals put out by cartoons masquerading as analysis.

30 year divided by, and 30 year minus 5 year are neutral at best.  Yield spreads would be rising in a gold-positive environment.  As a side note, this spread also tends to bring trouble for the stock market during its initial stages of rising.


Gold vs. Crude Oil is getting bullisher and bullisher for the gold mining industry.

Gold vs. Broad Commodities is also looking bullish.

Gold vs. Industrial Metals is a little wobbly, but in an uptrend for months now.

Gold is still not preferred for safety in relation to Uncle Sam himself.  The implication is that confidence is intact in government, in policy makers, in the whole ball of wax.  That’s okay, we’ve got time (and patience).

Gold is once again bouncing in SPX units.  When this trend changes a major macro fundamental underpinning will be in place for the gold stock sector.  This is at this point a bounce, not an uptrend.

Gold vs. Euro-hedged European stocks is the kind of chart that makes me think ‘hmmm, a trend change has got to start somewhere…’, but as yet, no trend change.

Gold vs. un-hedged Canada is better still.

GLD vs. Yen-hedged Japan is bouncing.

Gold vs. a currency that is actually under attack by the ECB, is bearish.  Imagine that, this chart would tell Europeans to own the currency that is being devalued by policy makers instead of owning gold.

Canadian gold owners are once again bouncing vs. Canadian dollar owners.

Gold vs. Aussie, not so much.

Gold vs. Yen has Japanese saying “buy Japanese stocks, I’m not going to help you”.  Oh wait, Japanese stocks are correcting a bit as well.

Maybe Japanese might just want to hold Yen for a while until the dust settles.

Bottom Line

Gold funda are on another bounce but when stock markets (including and especially US markets) crack, policy makers are not so firmly revered (and obeyed) and risk ‘off’ becomes more prevalent, confirmations will start coming in.

Gold is in a bear market, technically.  That is indisputable.  Gold may have ended its bear market as well, with no technical parameters yet confirming.  But I do believe that the above represent on balance, a long, slow march toward change.

Meanwhile, the general game plan is for the gold-silver ratio (GSR) to indicate systemic stress as it rises (we noted a fledgling breakout in GSR a few days ago in an NFTRH update) and today, in-day, we have a resumed breakout.  That would be bad chicken.

Click the pic, laugh and consider that the GSR has to top out and silver then needs to indicate a new inflation phase out there somewhere on the horizon.  As is happening today, the gold sector can rise with a rising GSR (as fundamentals grind out improvement), but if silver takes over later on, watch out.  That would be the momo time when casino patrons (AKA stock market refugees) start paying attention to the sector.

“That’s not gonna be good for anybody…”

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2015 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules