Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17
Bitcoin PullBack Is Over (For Now): Cryptocurrencies Gain Nearly A 50% In Last 48 Hours - 19th Jul 17
AAPL's 6% June slide - When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most - 19th Jul 17
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - 19th Jul 17
iGaming – Stock Prices - 19th Jul 17
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert Prechter - Book Review - 18th Jul 17
Ethereum Versus Bitcoin – Which Cryptocurrency Will Win The War? - 18th Jul 17
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny - 18th Jul 17
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 - 18th Jul 17
Why & How to Hedge the Growing Risks of Holding Stocks - 18th Jul 17
Relocation: Everything You Need to do for a Smooth Transition Abroad - 17th Jul 17
A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: It’s Time To Buy Brick And Mortar Retailers - 17th Jul 17
Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Price “Deja Vu” Corrective Sequence - 17th Jul 17
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? - 17th Jul 17
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario - 17th Jul 17
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - 17th Jul 17
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - 17th Jul 17
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices - 17th Jul 17
Stock Market More to Go - 17th Jul 17
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - 16th Jul 17
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction - 15th Jul 17
Global Currency Reserve At Risk - 14th Jul 17
Picking Great Gold Stocks - 14th Jul 17
BBC Tree Expert's Verdict on Sheffield Amey / Labour City Council Tree Felling's - 14th Jul 17
SPX Cycles, Fed Funds and Gold - 14th Jul 17
Should Platinum Be More Expensive Than Gold? - 14th Jul 17
What's Next for US Dollar, Stocks, Bonds and Gold? - 13th Jul 17
India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone - 13th Jul 17
Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - 13th Jul 17
Gold Industry Is In A Deep State Of Dysfunction, Delusion And Denial - 13th Jul 17
Cryptocurrency Bloodbath! Sell Everything We Were Totally Wrong! - 12th Jul 17
Gold to Silver Ratio - Preparing for THE Bottom - 12th Jul 17
Iran and North Korea: Brothers in Nuclear Arms - 12th Jul 17
Down Dollar Down: Time for "UP"? - 12th Jul 17
Most Tech People Are Too Young To Remember That Silicon Valley Hasn’t Had A Real Crisis In 17 Years - 11th Jul 17
Stock Market Rally May be Over - 11th Jul 17
Silver Price Plunge Is Nearing Completion - 11th Jul 17
Soaring Global Demand for Lithium Presents Triple-Digit Profit Scenario - 11th Jul 17
Gold Price Outlook Increasingly Bullish - 11th Jul 17
Sheffield Street Tree Protestors / Campaigners vs Amey Labour City Council 2017 - 11th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

7 Market Predictions for 2016: Gold, Energy, Stocks, Bitcoin

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Jan 02, 2016 - 01:37 PM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

Stock-Markets

Despite my hesitation in writing another piece like this, people seem to love prediction articles. It used to be an easier task to simply identify and go with the trends, but so much is now up to the whims of central planners that it is nearly impossible to have much accuracy. These are just my best guesses and I will make sure to revisit them in another 12 months to see how well they held up. Here are my seven predictions for 2016:


#1) The stock market corrects sharply from overbought levels, driven partly by increasing interest rates. The S&P 500 will drop by 25% or more during 2016 as a global recession unfolds. Economic data shows patterns similar to what was witnessed right before the last recession. The FED has little wiggle room to prop it up like they did last time around, but may be forced to reverse course on rates and introduce a new stimulus program by year end.

#2) The USD continues to strengthen versus other currencies, as the FED raises rates and other central banks continue to cut their rates. Our fractional reserve fiat monetary system is a great scourge on the world in my view. It enriches the few at the expense of the many and must be enforced at the barrel of a gun. We will likely see an increased trend of de-dollarization during 2016, particularly as the BRICS nations move away from using the USD in trade. Nevertheless, the USD remains the best of the fiat currencies and it will likely benefit from its perception as a safe haven when investors begin to flee stocks en masse.

#3) The unemployment rate reverses course and moves higher during 2016. The official unemployment rate (U3) has been cut in half since the financial crisis unfolded in 2008. It spiked to 10% during 2009, but has since dropped to just 5% in late 2015. Of course, a large portion of this decline was driven by a lower participation rate, sacrificing quality for quantity, more part-time jobs and BLS manipulation of data to brighten the overall jobs landscape. Alternative calculations of true unemployment remain near all-time highs around 24%. In 2016, the U3 unemployment number will stop falling and eventually begin to move higher for the first time in years.

#4) Home prices flatline and begin to trend lower during the second half of the year. Home prices have put in an impressive rebound over the past five years, but the rally is losing steam. During 2016, I expect a continuation of modest price gains in the first half of the year, then flatlining price growth and an eventual drop in home prices by the end of the year. This trend will be driven by rising interest rates that make homes less affordable, an increasing supply of new homes hitting the market and another peak in the median home price/median income ratio.

#5) Gold will finally carve out a base and bottom in the $950 to $1,050 range. The gold price will show a high level of volatility and ultimately close out 2016 with a gain of 20% or more. The silver price will follow gold, with a higher level of volatility in both directions. Precious metals will likely get dragged down initially in any economic crisis, but the monetary will bounce back quickly and re-assert themselves as true safe haven assets. With such a small level of investor participation in gold and silver currently, it will not take much a shift of funds into this relatively tiny market to move the prices significantly higher.

#6) Energy prices will continue to dip in the first half of 2016, but will eventually find a bottom and trend higher. The price of oil will test $30/barrel and dip as low as $25/barrel, but will bounce sharply and end the year closer to $50/barrel.

#7) The price of bitcoin will rocket to a new high above $1,200 during 2016. Bitcoin will gain greater acceptance in the mainstream financial world and the blockchain technology will flourish as it finds a variety of new uses. As the global recession intensifies and currency wars continue, people around the world will turn to bitcoin as a means of protecting their wealth and transferring it across borders.

#Bonus Predictions: Increased tensions with Russia in the Middle East, thousands of U.S. boots on the ground, ISIS is effectively wiped out, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders giving Clinton a close race for the Democratic nomination, more domestic terrorism and mass shootings in the election year, executive action by Obama to increase gun control, unusual weather patterns causing a spike in natural disasters, a big earthquake hits California, Golden State beats the Cavs in the NBA finals, marijuana legalization sweeps the nation.

We will be positioning the Gold Stock Bull portfolio to take advantage of these trends in 2016. If you aren’t already a premium member, you can sign up here to receive the newsletter, model portfolio and trade alerts. Enter the coupon code 2016GO for 20% OFF any membership if you sign up today. Happy new year!

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a monthly contrarian newsletter that contains in-depth research into the markets with a focus on finding undervalued gold and silver mining companies. The Premium Membership includes the newsletter, real-time access to the model portfolio and email trade alerts whenever Jason is buying or selling. Click here for instant access!

Copyright © 2015 Gold Stock Bull - All Rights Reserved

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife