Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bull Market Hanging By A Thread.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 12, 2016 - 11:51 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The S&P 500 uptrend line from 2009 is hanging on by a thread. During the day it went far below only to take it back late but barely. 1925 the level, and with a close at 1923 that's a hold. You need a strong, powerful close below to get the market to fail fully. We are close, but no cigar yet. In time I do believe the market will lose this key level with force, but we may be too oversold short-term, although that is by no means a guarantee. Bear market stays oversold, but the levels of oversold here are unusual. Near zero stochastic's on many index charts. Some as low as 0.59 today.


That was reached on the small caps chart. RSI's are all sub-30 on many key time frames along with all oscillators deeply compressed. It's now or never for the bulls as they fight a level they desperately don't want to see disappear. If 1925 does go away with force, there is no way short-term to measure how far down it goes since we haven't traded below the long-term uptrend line in nearly seven years.

The market would start creating its own, new support zones. They would probably coincide with deeply oversold conditions. The bears were enjoying last night's futures, but they recovered by the open allowing for a move higher that failed badly as the day went along before we rallied decently end of day to keep the bulls alive for another day. These are very interesting times for sure as the market may soon send the official we are in a bear shot that no bull wants to deal with. We are due for a rally short-term, but we have no idea if that'll come to fruition. The bulls better hope something good comes out of China this evening. It would help their cause short-term.

The Titanic is turning slowly, but more gradually now folks. It took a year plus of spinning ever so slowly, but now it's making its move. Those long-term monthly charts playing out for sure. I have never witnessed charts that appeared more bearish, thus, we can't be shocked if we do enter a bear market with some gusto fairly soon. Once the ship makes the turn you need to get out its way. Don't ignore what you see. Don't deny what's obvious because you'd like a different outcome. This is where both sides get hurt. They don't want to deal with the market going against their belief system, and, thus, they pay a terrible price for their denial. The best advice is to keep it very light and to keep stops tight. This market is getting extremely volatile. The bulls fight, but the bears take it back rather quickly. Sector after sector is breaking down and that's never a good thing for anyone who wants only upside action.

Lots of big rallies will definitely occur over time and can hit on any given day but you need to keep things in perspective and recognize the bigger picture trend taking over. We'll see where we are at the end of the week, and if that weekly candle is on breakdown, then you'll need to make some adjustments to your market thinking over the next several months to come at least. One day at a time here. Nothing is easy.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in