Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Odds of Winning Walkers Crisps Spell & Go olidays K, C and D Letters - Sami_Walayat
3.Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse - Hubert_Moolman
4.Pope Francis Calls For Worldwide Communist Government - Jeff_Berwick
5.EU Referendum Opinion Polls Neck and Neck Despite Operation Fear, Support BrExit Campaign - Nadeem_Walayat
6.David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - Mike Gleason
7.British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - Bob_Loukas
9.The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - Michael_Swanson
10.Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
Free Silver
Last 7 days
EU REMAIN Population Forecasts - England 4.1 million Explosion, London Migration Crisis - 28th May 16
A Guide to the Trump-Sanders Debate - 28th May 16
Gold And Silver – At Significant Support. New “Story” Developing - 28th May 16
The Next Systemic Lehman Event - New Scheiss Dollar & Gold Trade Standard - 27th May 16
Energy and Debt Crisis Point to Much Higher Silver, Metals Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q1 2016 Fundamentals - 27th May 16
These Crisis Markets Are Primed to Deliver Big Gains, Platinum Never Cheaper! - 27th May 16
Operation Black Vote BrExit Warning for the Wrong EU Referendum - 27th May 16
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme, Catastrophic ONS Migration Stats Ahead of EU Referendum - 27th May 16
Many of the World’s Best Investors Made Their Fortunes This Way…And You Can Too - 27th May 16
The Ugly Truth About Stock Market Manipulation and Gold Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Price Looking Vulnerable While Gold Stocks Correct - 27th May 16
The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading - 27th May 16
The Next Big Crash Of The U.S. Economy Is Coming, Here’s Why - 27th May 16
A New Golden Bull or Has the Market Gone Too Far Too Fast? - 27th May 16
It Feels Like Inflation - 26th May 16
Negative Interest Rates Set to Propel the Dow Jones to the Stratosphere? - 26th May 16
S&P Significant Low has Occurred – Not Likely! - 26th May 16
Statistics for Funeral Planning in UK Grave - 26th May 16
Think Beyond Oil And Gold: Interview With Mike 'Mish' Shedlock - 26th May 16
Hard Times and False Mainstream Media Narratives - 26th May 16
Will The Swiss Guarantee 75,000 CHF For Every Family? - 26th May 16
Is There A Stocks Bear Market in Progress? - 26th May 16
Billionaires Are Wrong on Gold - 26th May 16
How NOT to Invest in the Gold Market - 26th May 16
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas - 26th May 16
U.S. Household Debt Still Below 2008 Peak - 25th May 16
Brexit: Wrong Discussion, Wrong People, Wrong Arguments - 25th May 16
SPX is at Strong Resistance - 25th May 16
US Dollar, Back From the Grave? - 25th May 16
Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am - 25th May 16
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us - 24th May 16
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals - 24th May 16
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 - 24th May 16
Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails - 23rd May 16
Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold - 23rd May 16
Stocks Extended Their Rebound On Friday - Will They Continue Higher? - 23rd May 16
UK Treasury Propaganda Warns of 3.6% Brexit Recession, the £64 Billion Question? - 23rd May 16
Stock Market Support Breached, But Not Broken! - 23rd May 16
George Osborne Warns of 18% Cheaper House Prices - BrExit for First Time Buyers - 22nd May 16
Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) - 22nd May 16 r
Avoiding a War in Space - 22nd May 16
Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the US Dollar? - 21st May 16
Danish Central Bank Stumbles with Its Currency Peg to the Euro - 21st May 16
SPX Downtrend Underway - 21st May 16
George Osborne Warns of More Affordable UK Housing Market if BrExit Happens - 21st May 16
Gold And Silver 11th Hour: Globalists 10 v People 0 - 21st May 16
David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - 21st May 16
Gold Stocks Following Bull Analogs - 20th May 16
The Gold Chart That Has Central Banks Extremely Worried - 20th May 16
Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - 20th May 16
Stock Market Rally At the End of the Road? - 20th May 16
British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - 20th May 16
NASDAQ 100, FTSE, and British Pound - When Rare Market Data Screams, Listen  - 20th May 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Betrayed By The Gold Silver Ratio ? Gold Bug heresy? 

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Jan 12, 2016 - 12:03 PM GMT

By: Denali_Guide

Commodities

“ET TU BRUTE ?” “Cuo Bono ?”

         “It's a long time from now to never....” Says 'John Snow' in Game of Thrones. In my opinion, probably as far as from here / now to “It must go back to....” uttered so much in  the worship of the Gold Silver Ratio (GSR).   And yet it doesn't, at least not until you suffer your stops being run and a loss of capital, or worse.  Your Capital was just betrayed at the hands of The GSR.


 And it was supposed help you, yet it stabbed you in the back.  I guess that is a lesson you shouldn't fool around with a naked Gold Silver ratio, no ?  I can talk later about how a “gussied-up GSR might work.

         In my experience far more tears than dollars came from using the GSR.

         Yes it betrayed you and your capital too.  Like the YouTube video,

 “Its GONE”!

         The Gold Silver(GSR) ratio has run from Negative numbers, to triple digits.  But  no matter what formation it is, nothing MUST Happen by virtue of its appearance on a chart.   Over time, some over/under shoots of mean measures, may return to the area of the mean, but that does not specify when or for how long.  Its easy to point to the historical extremes and say because its a “coiling formation”, it MUST return to the mean.  I don't think anything could logically be further from the truth.  The measure, in this case, the GSR, may run in that direction but is compelled by NOTHING to move that way.  After experimenting with the GSR(Gold Silver Ratio), I cannot ascertain any “force” that would make the GSR return to any particular level.  I know it is a warmly held belief amongst us Gold Bugz, but I can't hold onto it anymore.

        SPREAD TRADERS can profit using The GSR as a rough guide to timing,  ultra long term or very short term.  Gold Bug style Investors capital, get either a figurative death or dismemberment using GSR.  Think the last time you had your stops run out from under you while you were sure either Gold or Silver “Had To” run wild based on a very distorted GSR.   I bet no one wants that outcome again, except whomever was running your stops.

         Please Google “Images” under the “Gold Silver Ratio” heading if you want a good picture of what I find an inaccurate and confusing measure for GoldBug Investors to attempt to use. 

         What the heck are we supposed to do now if we cannot trust the GSR to help us profit ?   Stop using the GSR naked  !!  Like when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging yourself deeper !!  The second part of this, the Real Answer,

was so succinctly put by a not-famous but successful  acquaintance who has a way of summing up, in this case “I am always more interested in getting the direction correct than trying to decipher the extent of the move. “.  So if you want to get a bit more deeply into now to use a “Gussied-Up” GSR, instead of a naked GSR, THE REAL ANSWER,  get the full story on my blog: http://www.denaliguidesummit.blogspot.com/  where we start on how to actually use GSR data to your advantage.  -> ET TU BRUTE ? By Denali Guide

http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.ca

To the the charts involved, go here, to my Public Stock Charts Portfolio, and go to the last section.  All charts update automatically. http://stockcharts.com/public/1398475/tenpp/1

© 2016 Copyright Denali Guide - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife