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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Is Stock Market SPX Topping?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 22, 2016 - 05:18 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

SPX jumped in the overnight markets and it appears that Wave (i) of [c] may be complete. Thus far it has retraced 35% of the decline. Should SPX reach 1914.75 (the 38.2% retracement) in only one continuous impulse from [b], I suggest your longs be taken off the table.

Should SPX retrace modestly, then go higher, I suggest that it may reach its 50% Fib level at 1946.50 yet today. That would be the second level at which to take profits, since things may become dicey over the weekend.


It doesn’t hurt to take profits, while losses are harder to swallow.

VIX appears to have only one probe lower to go. Its target may be either the bottom of (a) or mid-Cycle support at 20.97.

The Hi-Lo Index may have reached its peak, or nearly so. A drop beneath this morning’s open at -92.00 may signal the rally is over. Of course, confirmation will come from the mid-Cycle support at -214.61.

TNX has already made a 38.86% retracement. A decline form here may already indicate that selling of equities may be happening and short positions may be taken again.

This exit may not be perfect, but I am erring on the side of caution and showing what I see to support that thesis.

Topping it all off, the SPX daily shows the retracement at its Cycle Bottom at 1904.34. This may be the ultimate resistance.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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