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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, Gold and Currencies Weekly Views

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Feb 19, 2016 - 12:47 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.


We update charts like these every week in NFTRH , but I have done relatively few for public review. So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.

US Stock Market

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support. Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (). The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.

S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow Weekly Charts

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish. Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted.

Wilshire 5000, Dow Transports, Mid Caps, Small Caps and NYSE Composite Weekly Charts

Global Stock Markets

Every week we review a broad global landscape, but for the purposes of this post we narrow it down to Europe, Toronto and Japan. Each market is in an intermediate downtrend. TSX is working on a cyclical bear. They are all trying to bounce from support areas and they are all bearish until they break those trends.

Euro STOXX 50, Toronto Stock Exchange and Nikkei Weekly Charts

Commodities

This chart is so simple. Commodities are bearish and have been for years.

CRB Weekly Chart

Despite the hype that crops up occasionally in these two headline commodities, they are marching along in bearish trends. We have had a technical target on Doctor Copper of $1.50/lb. going back years now (by monthly charts).

Crude Oil and Copper Weekly Charts

Bonds

We had a nice NFTRH+ trade on TLT prior to its pattern breakout and also highlighted TIP from a technical standpoint as it settled to support. This goes with some worthwhile fundamental analysis on these bonds by Michael Ashton: No Strategic Reason to Own Nominal Bonds Now .

TLT and TIP Weekly Charts

Long-term bonds are rising (yields tanking) even as T Bills continue to reflect the 'Fed Funds' rate hike stance.

TNX Weekly Chart

It's a low interest rate world and NIRP hysterics are in full swing.

US Treasury 10-Year Weekly Chart

Junk bonds, which people flocked to during the risk 'on' phase that ended in 2015, remain very bearish and a risk 'off' stance is appropriate.

Junk versus Investment Grade Weekly Charts


Precious Metals

We use many different charts over different time frames to look at this now-favored (risk 'off'/counter-cyclical) sector. Here is the simplest chart of gold I can imagine. The EMA 75 was our guide saying "BEAR" for years. Hence, that is very important support now (coinciding with a 38% Fib retrace level), eh?

Gold Weekly Chart

Silver however, is still dealing with its comparable resistance in the form of the EMA 55 and the October 2015 high.

Silver Weekly Chart

HUI, like gold, made an important move above the moving average that defined its bear market (EMA 55). It also popped above the October 2015 highs. As you can see, 140 is very important support for Huey now. It has already been tested once.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

Currencies

We review currency pairs on occasion even though FOREX is not something I am much interested in. I am interested in what is going on with USD-Yen, however. Yen is now the risk 'off' currency on the other side of the global trade. This is a notable breakdown.

USDJPY Weekly Chart

Note: Several 'USD vs.' pairs were updated yesterday .

Here is the cavalcade of currencies chart we often use in NFTRH . The chart does the talking.

USD Weekly Chart

Within the currency realm, we have been following risk 'off' gold vs. relative risk 'off' currency, Swiss Franc, to gauge the market's confidence in currencies overall. Gold broke out vs. Swissy and that confidence has taken a hit.

Gold:XSF Weekly Chart

Bottom Line

Okay, so there were a couple indicator(ish) items included. If I were to put a 'bottom line' on a world of asset markets I'd call it a risk 'off' global backdrop. Stock markets are bearish but bouncing, commodities are bearish (in the absence of overt inflation signals), bonds still see deflation, but we can anticipate a change to an inflationary issue out on the horizon. The gold sector is doing exactly what it should do in this environment; getting bullish. Currencies are reflecting a global waning of confidence in policy makers.

For reference see Gold's Macrocosm: The Planets Align .

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2016 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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