Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.BrExit House Prices Crash, Flat or Rally? UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Stocks Bull Market Climbs Wall of Worry, Bubble? When Will it End? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs - Hubert_Moolman
4.Deutche Bank Stock Price Crash - The EU Has Problems Far Beyond the Brexit - Harry_Dent
5.UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold and Silver Bull Phase 1 : Final Impulse Dead Ahead - Plunger
7.Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown - Gordon_T_Long
8.Putin Hacking Hillary for Trump, Russia's Manchurian Candidate? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Stock Market Insiders Are Secretly Selling, Cycle Top Next Month - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Gold Sector - Is it time to Back up the Truck? – Mortgage the Farm? - Peter_Degraaf
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Gold’s strong summer may be harbinger of things to come - 31st Aug 16
A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups - 31st Aug 16
GDX Gold Stocks Update…The First Consolidation Pattern - 31st Aug 16
Unknown Voluntary Servitude and the Creature from Jekyll Island - 31st Aug 16
It’s Official: The Global Real Estate Bubble is Finally Bursting! - 30th Aug 16
7 Things to Remember When Inflation Returns - 30th Aug 16
The Pro Hillary Supporter Challenge - 30th Aug 16
Semiconductor Stocks Sector, Updated - 30th Aug 16
Stagflation to Force People into Gold - 30th Aug 16
Late-August Calm a Breeding Ground for Gold Bullion Bank Shenanigans - 30th Aug 16
Stock Market Long View - 30th Aug 16
Fundamentals for Uranium look great; is the Uranium Market ready to soar? - 29th Aug 16
3 Ways to Profit from the Stressed-Out American Consumer - 29th Aug 16
Have The Markets Become Too Big to Fail? - 29th Aug 16
Pakistan Booming House Prices Housing Market Mania Kabza Mafia Warning! - 29th Aug 16
Post Yellen = Market Confusion - 28th Aug 16
Theresa May Instructs Police, NHS Gp's, Public Sector To Stop Racial Discrimination in Service Delivery - 28th Aug 16
Ignore Yellen and Buy the Dip in Precious Metals - 27th Aug 16
SPX Downtrend Should be Underway - 27th Aug 16
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story - 27th Aug 16
The Precious Metals Sector and the Fed. . . - 27th Aug 16
Stock Market - All Is Calm, All Is Not Right - 27th Aug 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Aug 16
Buy Gold’s August Dip? Gold’s Monthly Sweet Spot In September - 26th Aug 16
The IMF’s Internal Audit Reveals Its Incompetence and Massive Rule Breaking - 26th Aug 16
Commodities Are the Best Bargain Now—Here’s What to Buy - 26th Aug 16
Why I Left Canada and Became A Citizen of the Dominican Republic - 26th Aug 16
The GLD vs GOLD - 26th Aug 16
Can Stocks Survive Without Stimulus? - 25th Aug 16
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out - 25th Aug 16
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime - 25th Aug 16
A Zombie Financial System, Black Swans and a Gold Share Correction - 25th Aug 16
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? - 25th Aug 16
Merkel Prepares For a Deliberate Crisis While White House Plans For a Disastrous Succession - 24th Aug 16
Suspicious Reversal in Gold Price - 23rd Aug 16
If Trump Can’t Pull Off a Victory, Expect a Civil War - 23rd Aug 16
Ceding ICANN and Internet Control to Globalists - 23rd Aug 16
How to Spot an Oversold Stock Market - 23rd Aug 16
Gerald Celente Sees Worst Market Crash, New Military Conflict, Gold Spike to $2,000/oz - 23rd Aug 16
EU Olympics Medals Table Propaganda Includes BrExit Britain - 22nd Aug 16
BrExit Win's Britain Olympics Success Freedom Dividend, Economy Next - 22nd Aug 16
Stock Market Top Forming, but Slowly - 22nd Aug 16
(Really) Alternative Banking Systems - 22nd Aug 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy - 3 Secret Charts

Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, Gold and Currencies Weekly Views

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Feb 19, 2016 - 12:47 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.


We update charts like these every week in NFTRH , but I have done relatively few for public review. So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.

US Stock Market

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support. Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (). The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.

S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow Weekly Charts

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish. Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted.

Wilshire 5000, Dow Transports, Mid Caps, Small Caps and NYSE Composite Weekly Charts

Global Stock Markets

Every week we review a broad global landscape, but for the purposes of this post we narrow it down to Europe, Toronto and Japan. Each market is in an intermediate downtrend. TSX is working on a cyclical bear. They are all trying to bounce from support areas and they are all bearish until they break those trends.

Euro STOXX 50, Toronto Stock Exchange and Nikkei Weekly Charts

Commodities

This chart is so simple. Commodities are bearish and have been for years.

CRB Weekly Chart

Despite the hype that crops up occasionally in these two headline commodities, they are marching along in bearish trends. We have had a technical target on Doctor Copper of $1.50/lb. going back years now (by monthly charts).

Crude Oil and Copper Weekly Charts

Bonds

We had a nice NFTRH+ trade on TLT prior to its pattern breakout and also highlighted TIP from a technical standpoint as it settled to support. This goes with some worthwhile fundamental analysis on these bonds by Michael Ashton: No Strategic Reason to Own Nominal Bonds Now .

TLT and TIP Weekly Charts

Long-term bonds are rising (yields tanking) even as T Bills continue to reflect the 'Fed Funds' rate hike stance.

TNX Weekly Chart

It's a low interest rate world and NIRP hysterics are in full swing.

US Treasury 10-Year Weekly Chart

Junk bonds, which people flocked to during the risk 'on' phase that ended in 2015, remain very bearish and a risk 'off' stance is appropriate.

Junk versus Investment Grade Weekly Charts


Precious Metals

We use many different charts over different time frames to look at this now-favored (risk 'off'/counter-cyclical) sector. Here is the simplest chart of gold I can imagine. The EMA 75 was our guide saying "BEAR" for years. Hence, that is very important support now (coinciding with a 38% Fib retrace level), eh?

Gold Weekly Chart

Silver however, is still dealing with its comparable resistance in the form of the EMA 55 and the October 2015 high.

Silver Weekly Chart

HUI, like gold, made an important move above the moving average that defined its bear market (EMA 55). It also popped above the October 2015 highs. As you can see, 140 is very important support for Huey now. It has already been tested once.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

Currencies

We review currency pairs on occasion even though FOREX is not something I am much interested in. I am interested in what is going on with USD-Yen, however. Yen is now the risk 'off' currency on the other side of the global trade. This is a notable breakdown.

USDJPY Weekly Chart

Note: Several 'USD vs.' pairs were updated yesterday .

Here is the cavalcade of currencies chart we often use in NFTRH . The chart does the talking.

USD Weekly Chart

Within the currency realm, we have been following risk 'off' gold vs. relative risk 'off' currency, Swiss Franc, to gauge the market's confidence in currencies overall. Gold broke out vs. Swissy and that confidence has taken a hit.

Gold:XSF Weekly Chart

Bottom Line

Okay, so there were a couple indicator(ish) items included. If I were to put a 'bottom line' on a world of asset markets I'd call it a risk 'off' global backdrop. Stock markets are bearish but bouncing, commodities are bearish (in the absence of overt inflation signals), bonds still see deflation, but we can anticipate a change to an inflationary issue out on the horizon. The gold sector is doing exactly what it should do in this environment; getting bullish. Currencies are reflecting a global waning of confidence in policy makers.

For reference see Gold's Macrocosm: The Planets Align .

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2016 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife