Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

US Equity Uptrend Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jun 11, 2016 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started off at SPX 2099. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday the market moved higher, without dropping below SPX 2099, and hit SPX 2121. Then on Thursday and Friday the market pulled back to SPX 2090, before ending the week at 2096. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.0%. Economic reports for the week were light and mixed. On the downtick: investor holdings, consumer credit/sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, and Industrial production.


LONG TERM: neutral

Last weekend we presented our opinion of the bifurcation between the futures driven and cash driven US indices. The SPX/DOW/NDX all appear to be in a bear market rally, while the NYSE appears to be in a Primary wave V. The latter count is probably the most popular among in the EW world. As a result of this bifurcation we shifted our long term view to neutral.

While it is easy to look at a chart, after a market has progressed, and label it with what appears to be the most obvious count. We do not have that option with medium and long term trends. The OEW model quantifies these trends, and we are forced to label waves where they have actually began and ended. As a result, our labeling is not always what appears to be the most obvious count. Sometimes a potential count arises that few, if any, have even considered. We currently have such a count, but will not present it at this time as we await additional market data. All we will say is that it is more bullish than either of the two counts presented above.

Currently the P5 scenario for the NYSE is progressing positively. As that index moved above the Major 1 high just this week, in Major 3, before the late week pullback. Potential upside P5 targets are posted on the chart: starting with a marginal new high, then NYSE 11,740 and NYSE 11,930.

Should any of these targets be reached, this would of course suggest new all time highs in the SPX. Whenever the SPX makes new highs the bear market rally count will have to be updated. The February SPX 1810 low would be relabeled Primary A, and the advance from that low an ongoing Primary B. When P5 in the NYSE completes, Primary wave C in the SPX and, a bear market in the NYSE would soon be underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend, from the recent SPX 2026 downtrend low, made a new high this week and a new high for the rally from the February SPX 1810 low. This suggests, like the NYSE, the overall market is currently in its third wave up from the February low. And, is likely to continue to move higher.

The internal count for the February to April uptrend has come under some scrutiny lately. We have been presenting it as a double three corrective advance. For a corrective bear market rally this seems appropriate. However, after a closer look, it is possible to count this uptrend as impulsive by adding just one small wave that we may have overlooked. While OEW does consistently quantify medium/long term trends. It does not consistently quantify small waves within medium term trends. Bull/bear market characteristics are different, due to volatility. Therefore, one must know exactly which is unfolding to apply the proper short term metric.

Currently we are watching the recent pullback with interest. As we think it will clear up the corrective/impulsive medium term question. For now we will leave the short term counts as presented, subject to change. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.

SHORT TERM

As noted above there are two possible short term counts within the last uptrend, and this uptrend as well. Putting the last uptrend aside, we look at the current uptrend. We have been counting this uptrend, from SPX 2026, as an a-b-c. Yet when we include a small overlooked wave, using a bullish metric, we arrive at five waves up to SPX 2121: 2056-2047-2103-2085-2121. Which count is correct, the corrective or implusive? The current pullback, from SPX 2121, should provide the answer.

Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2121 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold during Friday’s pullback. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week for a gain of 0.3%.

European markets were all lower for a loss of 2.9%.

Commodity equity indices were mixed for a loss of 0.2%.

The DJ World index is in an uptrend but lost 0.8% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend, big volume Friday, and gained 0.4% on the week.

Gold looks like it is in an uptrend and gained 2.4% on the week.

The USD is also in an uptrend and gained 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: export/import prices, retail sales and business inventories. Wednesday: the PPI, NY FED, industrial production, and the FOMC meeting ends. Thursday: the CPI, weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and the NAHB. Friday: building permits, housing starts and options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2016 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules