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EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 24, 2016 - 01:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Results at 1am BST are reversing the REMAIN camps earlier complacency that following the polls closing had many congratulating themselves after YouGov's 10pm poll that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE. We even even saw Nigel Farage effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.


Now as the actual results are starting to come in, LEAVE is doing far better than so called experts expectations most notable of which were the results from Sunderland and Newcastle Upon Tyne, that were far stronger leaning towards LEAVE than the experts had modeled them to be, which now throws into doubt REMAINs earlier complacency and YouGov's poll.

The immediate market reaction was for sterling (GBP) to plunge from just over £/$1.50 to a low of 1.43 recovering to 1.45

As things stand LEAVE leads REMAIN by just 7,000 votes, with the LEAVE total so far 266,721 and REMAIN on 258,790. So it should be noted that it is still very early in the count as only just over 1/2 million votes have been counted thus far out of a turnout of at least 35 million.

Here is a summary of the how things stood at the time the polls closed 10pm Thursday in terms of EU Referendum expectations -

Financial Markets - REMAIN

Stocks and sterling had literally soared in advance of the voting day, effectively discounting a strong REMAIN victory i.e. between 55% and 60% for REMAIN.

Betting Markets - REMAIN

Similarly the bookmaker odds were discounting a large REMAIN victory, as evidenced by early Thursdays Betfair exchange market odds of LEAVE on 7.1 against REMAIN on 1.1, which converted into an implied probability of 90% for a REMAIN win. However on release of YouGov's 10pm poll effectively giving the EU Referendum to REMAN, Betfair odds shot higher to put LEAVE on 14! Which means £10 bet would have resulted in a £140 win! Better than any odds of the whole of this year, that until Thursday had not seen LEAVE odds widen to much over 6 at best.

My Forecast - LEAVE

Against this is my forecast as of 12th of June, a conclusion based on year long analysis that includes more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos for a LEAVE victory on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7% (12th June 16 - EU Referendum Forecast)

Therefore as things stood just after the polls had closed then on one side of the scale were the bookmakers, financial markets and pollsters all signaling a REMAIN outcome. Whilst tipped up in the air was my forecast for a LEAVE win.

We'll, now those scales have tipped back firmly in favour of LEAVE as the actual votes are being counted. Whilst the count has a long way to go. However as I was voicing Wednesday that MOMENTUM was in LEAVES favour going into voting day which apparently did not register in any of the models that so called experts have been relying upon.

For more see my last two videos -

Trading BrExit
BrExit / LEAVE Set to Win EU Referendum

 

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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