Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17
Subversion And Constructive Synthesis Of Capitalism And Socialism - 18th May 17
Silver: Train Leaving Station Soon! - 18th May 17
Credit and Volatility Signal That Financial Conditions Are Very Overheated - 18th May 17
Another Stock Market "Minsky Moment" or Will the Markets Calm Down? - 18th May 17
WannaCry Ransomware Virus Is a Globalist False Flag Attack On Bitcoin - 18th May 17
Euro, Stocks, Gold Momentum Extremes All Round! - 18th May 17
US Stock Market Slumps on Establishment / CIA Trump Impeachment Coup Plan - 18th May 17
Tory Landslide, Labour Bloodbath - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get a UK Election Right? - 17th May 17
The stock market sectors which are breaking out in 2017 - 17th May 17
A ‘Must-See’ Chart for Gold and Silver Aficionados  - 17th May 17
Will the SPX Stock Market Final Surge Fail to Appear? - 16th May 17
Claim your FREE copy of Jim Rickards’ explosive book - 16th May 17
GOP Establishment Elite Plots Trump Removal - 16th May 17
Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Cheats, Shoplifters and Staff Conning Customers - 16th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 24, 2016 - 01:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Results at 1am BST are reversing the REMAIN camps earlier complacency that following the polls closing had many congratulating themselves after YouGov's 10pm poll that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE. We even even saw Nigel Farage effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.


Now as the actual results are starting to come in, LEAVE is doing far better than so called experts expectations most notable of which were the results from Sunderland and Newcastle Upon Tyne, that were far stronger leaning towards LEAVE than the experts had modeled them to be, which now throws into doubt REMAINs earlier complacency and YouGov's poll.

The immediate market reaction was for sterling (GBP) to plunge from just over £/$1.50 to a low of 1.43 recovering to 1.45

As things stand LEAVE leads REMAIN by just 7,000 votes, with the LEAVE total so far 266,721 and REMAIN on 258,790. So it should be noted that it is still very early in the count as only just over 1/2 million votes have been counted thus far out of a turnout of at least 35 million.

Here is a summary of the how things stood at the time the polls closed 10pm Thursday in terms of EU Referendum expectations -

Financial Markets - REMAIN

Stocks and sterling had literally soared in advance of the voting day, effectively discounting a strong REMAIN victory i.e. between 55% and 60% for REMAIN.

Betting Markets - REMAIN

Similarly the bookmaker odds were discounting a large REMAIN victory, as evidenced by early Thursdays Betfair exchange market odds of LEAVE on 7.1 against REMAIN on 1.1, which converted into an implied probability of 90% for a REMAIN win. However on release of YouGov's 10pm poll effectively giving the EU Referendum to REMAN, Betfair odds shot higher to put LEAVE on 14! Which means £10 bet would have resulted in a £140 win! Better than any odds of the whole of this year, that until Thursday had not seen LEAVE odds widen to much over 6 at best.

My Forecast - LEAVE

Against this is my forecast as of 12th of June, a conclusion based on year long analysis that includes more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos for a LEAVE victory on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7% (12th June 16 - EU Referendum Forecast)

Therefore as things stood just after the polls had closed then on one side of the scale were the bookmakers, financial markets and pollsters all signaling a REMAIN outcome. Whilst tipped up in the air was my forecast for a LEAVE win.

We'll, now those scales have tipped back firmly in favour of LEAVE as the actual votes are being counted. Whilst the count has a long way to go. However as I was voicing Wednesday that MOMENTUM was in LEAVES favour going into voting day which apparently did not register in any of the models that so called experts have been relying upon.

For more see my last two videos -

Trading BrExit
BrExit / LEAVE Set to Win EU Referendum

 

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife