Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - James_Quinn
3.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - Rambus_Chartology
6.Global Currency Reserve At Risk - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - The_Gold_Report
8.Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - Graham_Summers
9.Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - Rambus_Chartology
10.Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - Harry_Dent
Last 7 days
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil - 19th Aug 17
4 Insights for Adjusting Your Portfolio in a Rate-hike Environment - 19th Aug 17
Gold Direction Indicator - 19th Aug 17
Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership - 19th Aug 17
You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand - 19th Aug 17
This is Why Cocoa's Crash Was a Perfect Setup - 19th Aug 17
Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - 19th Aug 17
North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan - 18th Aug 17
US Civil War - FUNCTIONAL ILLITERATES TRYING TO ERASE HISTORY - 18th Aug 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Over $4,400 As It Catches Paypal In Total Market Cap - 17th Aug 17
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - 12th Aug 17
Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - 12th Aug 17
How to Alton Towers Half Price Discount Entry 2017 and 2018, Any Time, No Pre-Booking! - 12th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI) - 11th Aug 17
What Makes Women Better Investors - 11th Aug 17
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - 11th Aug 17
Influencer Marketing Predictions All Businesses Should Take Into Account - 11th Aug 17
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt - 10th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 24, 2016 - 01:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Results at 1am BST are reversing the REMAIN camps earlier complacency that following the polls closing had many congratulating themselves after YouGov's 10pm poll that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE. We even even saw Nigel Farage effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.


Now as the actual results are starting to come in, LEAVE is doing far better than so called experts expectations most notable of which were the results from Sunderland and Newcastle Upon Tyne, that were far stronger leaning towards LEAVE than the experts had modeled them to be, which now throws into doubt REMAINs earlier complacency and YouGov's poll.

The immediate market reaction was for sterling (GBP) to plunge from just over £/$1.50 to a low of 1.43 recovering to 1.45

As things stand LEAVE leads REMAIN by just 7,000 votes, with the LEAVE total so far 266,721 and REMAIN on 258,790. So it should be noted that it is still very early in the count as only just over 1/2 million votes have been counted thus far out of a turnout of at least 35 million.

Here is a summary of the how things stood at the time the polls closed 10pm Thursday in terms of EU Referendum expectations -

Financial Markets - REMAIN

Stocks and sterling had literally soared in advance of the voting day, effectively discounting a strong REMAIN victory i.e. between 55% and 60% for REMAIN.

Betting Markets - REMAIN

Similarly the bookmaker odds were discounting a large REMAIN victory, as evidenced by early Thursdays Betfair exchange market odds of LEAVE on 7.1 against REMAIN on 1.1, which converted into an implied probability of 90% for a REMAIN win. However on release of YouGov's 10pm poll effectively giving the EU Referendum to REMAN, Betfair odds shot higher to put LEAVE on 14! Which means £10 bet would have resulted in a £140 win! Better than any odds of the whole of this year, that until Thursday had not seen LEAVE odds widen to much over 6 at best.

My Forecast - LEAVE

Against this is my forecast as of 12th of June, a conclusion based on year long analysis that includes more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos for a LEAVE victory on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7% (12th June 16 - EU Referendum Forecast)

Therefore as things stood just after the polls had closed then on one side of the scale were the bookmakers, financial markets and pollsters all signaling a REMAIN outcome. Whilst tipped up in the air was my forecast for a LEAVE win.

We'll, now those scales have tipped back firmly in favour of LEAVE as the actual votes are being counted. Whilst the count has a long way to go. However as I was voicing Wednesday that MOMENTUM was in LEAVES favour going into voting day which apparently did not register in any of the models that so called experts have been relying upon.

For more see my last two videos -

Trading BrExit
BrExit / LEAVE Set to Win EU Referendum

 

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife