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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Getting Extremely Overbought.....After Extremely Oversold.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jul 02, 2016 - 07:14 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market spent days wondering what would happen with Brexit. Would Britain leave or stay was the big question. A surprise vote of leave had the global markets heading south in a very big way. Our markets took quite a powerful, two-day hit, which allowed the short-term sixty-minute RSI's reach extremely oversold at 15 on the key index charts. After two days of downside, the markets reversed without warning and headed straight north, which allowed the RSI's to approach 80. An over 100-point turn-around occurred on the RSI in roughly three and a half days. That's amazing. Truly unheard of. Things went from intense fear and panic to complete froth, and the need to be in at any cost. Emotional swings like that is something you really never see in such a short period of time. The market is acting more and more like this as time moves along.


The market is changing on so many levels from technical to fundamentals to emotional. It's hard to understand, and I'm not sure why things are going in this direction, but clearly they are moving upward. No sign of this trend ending any time soon. The higher we go, the more of a disconnect we see, while also seeing a big change in emotional responses to the moves in both directions. That said, the trend is higher and heading towards the old highs at 2134 in to the teeth of all the froth. Earnings are rapidly on the decline, while we experience an historically high P/E on the S&P 500 at 24. It makes absolutely no sense. All we can do is adapt to the new market as it moves along. Risk remains extreme, but price speaks and price is bullish, even though we have yet to make the ultimate breakout. This market has saved itself more times than I can count. The bulls have to feel beyond lucky and blessed. It seems to be their time.

With all that has taken place in terms of the problems facing this market, and where we are on price, it seems inevitable that a breakout over 2134 is imminent. It's never a guarantee, until we actually see it, but the market has had everything thrown at it, and it won't fall. I don't get it, and neither do any of you unless you lie to yourself. That said, price talks loudly. Now, it seems the market has its head down and is readying itself for the big one. The bulls are gathering their party hats, while the bears are bracing for yet another dark time in this never-ending, low interest rate, bullied-bull market. Can't fight the fed Yellen seems to be a story that won't go away. She knew what she was doing when she created this environment, and it appears she wants to keep it going for the longer-term. Rate hikes for the rest of this year are likely off the table, and who knows, maybe even for 2017. We shall see, but the low-rate environment isn't going away any time soon. Sorry bears, it is what it is. Maybe there will come a time when the market doesn't care for the low-rate environment any longer, but for years it has worked for the bulls. The onus is on the giving up bears to change things.

When trying to understand a market we can look at those key, weekly candle sticks, and they are speaking volumes. The reversals from early this week are powerful, and quite bullish in nature. What looked hopeless on Monday for the bulls now looks hopeless for the bears. They really don't have any hope. But you never know when some event out there will save them. Based on the weekly reversals it seems the breakout over 2134 is very close at hand. Maybe the market will wait for the Jobs Report on Friday, but whether it does or doesn't shouldn't matter. See the breakout over 2134 on a closing basis and respond accordingly. 2458 is the longer-term measurement, if this insanity continues.

Have a great, and safe 3-day weekend.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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