Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Volatility Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jul 02, 2016 - 12:35 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2037. After a gap down opening to start the week, and a decline to SPX 1992, the market reversed and rallied quite strongly for the rest of the week. The two day post Br-exit decline from SPX 2113-1992, was nearly fully retraced when the market hit SPX 2109 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 3.4%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the downtick: pending home sales, construction spending, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: Q1 GDP, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls and the FOMC minutes.


LONG TERM: neutral

Took a look at the history of the DOW from 1900-present. Found two periods when the DOW confirmed a bear market, then spent over one year flirting with potential new highs. The two instances are of different wave degrees, but are similar to the current market we have been experiencing since the May 2015 high.

The first one is the 1956-1957 bear market. After a three year bull market in which the DOW doubled, the market spent 15 months attempting to make new highs. Notice it had four uptrends during that period, and all failed to make new highs. Then after failing on its last, and strongest, attempt it broke to lower lows.

The second one is the 2000-2002 bear market. This bear market followed an extraordinary, record breaking, 13-year bull market when the DOW rose from 1,616 – 11,750. Notice after the top it had five uptrends during the following 16 month period, and all failed to make new highs as well. Then after failing on its last attempt, and strongest, it broke to lower lows.

Our current market has done something quite similar. After a six year bull market in which the SPX tripled, the market has spent the last 13 months attempting to make new highs. Notice since the May 2015 high at SPX 2135 the market has had four uptrend attempts to make new highs and all have fallen short: 2133, 2116, 2111 and 2121. Until the market breaks through to new highs we remain long term neutral.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

This weeks activity generated a WROC signal. These signals usually occur before OEW confirms and uptrend, and are 96% accurate during bull markets. During bear markets the accuracy drops to about 75%, as some bear market rallies can trigger WROC signals. As a result probabilities suggest an uptrend is now underway.

We continue to count the three wave advance from SPX 1810-2121 as an a-b-c Major wave B. The recent decline to SPX 1992 should have started Major wave C. But the market rallied strongly this week, nearly retracing that entire decline. Should the market confirm an uptrend, and exceed the actual SPX 2135 all time high, then Major wave B is probably subdividing and extending. This would also suggest Primary wave V is underway in the NYSE index.

As we have been noting for a couple of months now. A Primary V in the NYSE to new highs, and an irregular Major wave B in the four major indices, would put all five of these indices back in alignment. Even though the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ would be labeled B wave advances. The NAZ daily chart is carrying this potential subdividing/extending Major wave B count. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.

SHORT TERM

The market has been quite volatile since the June uptrend high at SPX 2121. The market first declined to SPX 2050, rallied all the way back to SPX 2113, then declined to SPX 1992 just this Monday. We labeled that decline with three Minor waves creating Intermediate wave A. Then from Monday’s low to Friday the market rallied back to SPX 2109. We had anticipated an Intermediate wave B rally if the market cleared the 2043 pivot. But thought the rally would be limited to the 2085 pivot range. When there wasn’t even a notable pullback at that area we knew the market was heading higher.

Thus far we can count four waves up from the SPX 1992 low: 2027-2016-2109-2099. Should the market rally back to SPX 2109, or higher, then the entire rally would look impulsive. If not, then it is just another corrective rally in this ongoing choppy market. With US markets closed on Monday anything is possible by time it opens again on Tuesday. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance SPX 2113 and SPX 2121. Short term momentum ended the week declining from an extremely over bought condition.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher gaining 3.3% on the week.

European markets were also all higher and gained 4.2% on the week.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.6% on the week.

The DJ World index gained 3.5% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week.

Crude still looks like it is entering a downtrend but gained 3.0%.

Gold continues to uptrend and gained 1.5%.

The USD is also uptrending and gained 0.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: holiday. Tuesday: Factory orders. Wednesday: ISM services, the FOMC minutes, and FED governor Tarullo gives a speech. Thursday: the ADP and weekly jobless claims. Friday: monthly Payrolls and consumer credit. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2016 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules