Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Beware the Stocks Bear Market Dividend Trap

Companies / Dividends Jul 24, 2008 - 05:26 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlexander Green writes: For years, investors have bemoaned the low dividend yield on stocks. But with the market down roughly 20%, the yield on the S&P 500 Index is up to 2.25%. That doesn't sound terribly rich, I know, but it is only slightly less than the average money market is paying right now. 

In the short term, you may sleep a lot better with a big chunk of money tucked safely away in cash.  But in the long run, you may lose sleep. After all, your biggest risk as an investor is not market risk - the inevitable rise and fall of your stock portfolio from week to week - but shortfall risk, the possibility that good health and steady inflation may cause you to outlive your investment portfolio.

Knowing this, many investors have been searching for higher dividends in the beaten down financial sector. This makes sense at first blush since bank stocks have fallen so far that many sport double-digit yields.

But beware. Many of these dividends will be cut sharply. Some will be eliminated altogether.

That doesn't mean that banks aren't a decent Contrarian's buy right now. But tread carefully.

Reeling from the rise in foreclosures and the ensuing credit crunch, earnings at many banks are quickly evaporating and, in many cases, disappearing. For example, Citigroup Inc. ( C ) has already lopped its dividend by 41%. National City Corp. ( NCC ), a major regional bank, cut its payout in half. And Washington Mutual Inc. ( WM ) slashed its quarterly dividend to a mere penny.

Seventeen of 20 financial companies in the S&P 500 have cut their dividends so far this year, more than in the past five years combined. 

These banks didn't take this step lightly. Most blue-chip banks have a long history of not cutting dividends. Management wants to keep shareholders happy. But if the money isn't there to cover the dividend, it will not be maintained. It doesn't make sense to borrow money - or dilute equity holders - to continue a payout.

Still, you can get a good idea which financial stocks will maintain or increase their dividends - and which ones will not - by taking a close look at the underlying business. 

Consider Bank of America Corp. ( BAC ), for example. Here's one of the nation's top banks, down so far that it is yielding a mouthwatering 7.7%.

Is this dividend secure? Almost certainly not. Quarterly revenue is down 35%. Earnings have slumped 77%.  And analysts have slashed future earnings estimates 20% over the last 90 days. It's just a matter of time before this dividend gets whacked.

On the other hand, there are some choice income picks overseas . Take a look at Spain's biggest bank, Banco Santander SA (ADR: STD ). 

The bank has more than 13,000 branches worldwide, the most of any bank. It has virtually no exposure to subprime mortgages. 

First-quarter profit rose 37% on revenue of $11.63 billion. And while many major banks are reporting record losses, Santander just reported its tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth. Management is sticking to its forecast of 15% annual earnings growth over the next two years.

This bank's 4.4% yield will almost certainly rise over the next two years. Banco Santander is a far superior choice for the dividend-oriented investor. 

To enjoy high total returns, you need only know where to look. 

[ Editor's Note : Alexander Green is Investment Director of The Oxford Club and Chairman of Investment U . To get Green's actionable investment ideas three times a week - at no charge - sign up for the Investment U e-letter. If you join for free today, they'll send you their latest special commodities research report: "Five Million Reasons to Load Up On Coal Now - and Three Easy Ways to do it." You'll find out why the standardized shipping container is driving coal demand through the roof -and how that's delivering literal "boatloads" of profits to three companies. Just click here to have your report delivered in less than two minutes. Again, the report, and the service, both are free of charge.]

News and Related Story Links:

By Alexander Green
Guest Columnist

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2008 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email:

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules