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US Jobs Disappoint... Nothing Terrible...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 03, 2016 - 04:58 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market had two reports it was focusing on this week. The ISM Manufacturing Report that was to come out on Thursday and the Jobs Report that would come out today. The first one laid an egg. Huge disappointment. Market fell, but then came back strong. Bad news wasn't bad news for the market. Today the Jobs Report missed, but not as bad as yesterday's miss. That said, still a miss by between 25/50k jobs depending on who you listen to. The market blinked lower on the futures for a moment but then recovered. It's almost as if the market reacted as if was a stock market still. It had a forgetful moment. It immediately then realized that it's now a fed market and fed markets work on rates and basically nothing else.

The bad reports almost guarantee we won't be seeing anything on the rate hike front for some time to come. The fed market naturally reacted positively. The market has been bullied in to a bull for a long time now and there's still no sign of that going away any time soon. At some point maybe froth or something else will hit but bad news on the economy can be justified as bullish simply because the fed is making sure there aren't any other instruments folks will want to run into. Rates are too low for most people to put their dollars in to. The market offers up the best opportunity for higher gains and let's face it folks, people are always looking to get the highest possible returns. So today we saw where once again bad news was treated kindly. A very weird environment that most simply are not used to. Being a bear in bearish times while being in a fed market is just not working. It makes no sense but when you think about it you can grasp it. Folks want to go where returns of more than basically zero percent are possible.

There is one thing that can be said with certainty. The market is trading in an ever annoying range of three percent. The range being S&P 500 2134 to S&P 500 2194 or the double top printed in August. 2134 of course massive support or the breakout level that took forever to occur. The bears are fighting harder now any time the market gets close to 2194, while the bulls put their foot down on the gas any time we head or drift back towards the 2134 level. Back and forth with no one winning the battle short term. The problem is short-term is starting to morph in to medium-term. It's getting more and more boring which means it's getting more and more emotional. Understanding the why of it all is nearly impossible. Froth? Valuations? Who knows. Bottom line is that this range is extending into months and driving traders nuts.

I have no idea what catalyst will come along that will allow for a directional move above 2194 or below 2134, but it has to be out there. You can't trade this thinly forever. Until we get that move it's best to keep things quiet. Other than that there really isn't much to add to the picture here folks. We're in a different era than we've ever been before and we're all still learning as things move along.

Have a great weekend.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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