Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Soybean Price Hits 9 Year Low Due to Trade War - 24th Jun 18
Small Cap Stocks, Technology and Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally - 24th Jun 18
Gerald Celente: Why You Still Need Guns, Gold, and a Getaway Plan... - 23rd Jun 18
Cheap Gold Stocks Bottom Basing - 23rd Jun 18
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar - 23rd Jun 18
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Trump Converging Towards BrExit Factor Election WIN, Opinion Polls are WRONG Again!

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 03, 2016 - 08:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With just 4 full days to go until the polls open Tuesday 8th, Trump continues to bounce in the polls and betting markets that has resulted in near panic in the Democrat camp that less than a week ago were seen relaxing on expectations for a Hillary landslide election victory. But now, after last Fridays FBI bombshell all that has changed and the Clinton clan are busy crisscrossing the swing states, mainly attempting to bolster the lack lustre black vote that despite fearing Trumps rhetoric nevertheless are unable to find much incentive to get out and vote for the ultimate washington insider Hillary.


The opinion polls continue to show a shrinking lead for Hillary that now stands at just 1.7%, down form 2.2% yesterday her lowest polls lead since Mid September, with momentum still on Trumps side as the polls trend trajectory implies convergence by election day.

As for the betting markets, they continue to show Trump gaining ground as his odds of winning narrow from 3.75 yesterday to 3.5 today, still a long way to go to reach Hillary who now stands on 1.41, but at least the trend is finally in the right direction.

However, things are much worse for Hillary than her poll lead and the betting odds markets imply, as my analysis has consistently iterated that Trump does not actually ever need to be in the lead in the opinion polls to actually WIN the election due to the BrExit factor that allows for a 3-4% swing against the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being the first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps at least the past 40 years who I expected would capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and betting markets all getting the result very badly wrong, so instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people giving the establishment elite a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And since which all of my articles and videos have tended to conclude that Donald Trump still stood a chance of winning regardless of what the polls and the betting markets have been stating. However, I did say that I would revisit my forecast of September 25th much closer to election day just as I had done for my forecast for BrExit ahead of the June 23rd EU Referendum vote. And so here is my final look at the prospects for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election 2016 posted on 2nd November -

The bottom line is that the POLLS are WRONG, the BOOKIES are WRONG, JUST as they were WRONG for BREXIT, Just as they were WRONG for the May 2015 UK General Election and just as they were WRONG for the Scottish Sept 2014 Referendum, and now will be found to be WRONG for the US Presidential Election 2016!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

despe906
03 Nov 16, 19:03
AI

An article about a possible Trump win :

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/10/28/Algorithm-Solid-Track-Record-Predicting-Trump-Win?utm_source=talkmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange_module


Nadeem_Walayat
03 Nov 16, 19:48
Best AI

At this point in time the Best AI is that which is between your ears.

Being a programmer, I know its all about weighting of the factors, so in reality its not an AI forecasting anything but the programmer skewing the results in that which he wants to happen. As is the case with the polls.

The only REAL mechanism for arriving at the most probable is to put ones own money on the line.

Best

NW


despe906
03 Nov 16, 22:03
computer trader

Yeah, I have heard that a human trader can beat the black boxes as he is more nimble be being able to adapt to changing market conditions. But when one day we get computers that learn to adapt and adopt...

I regularly see setups in some type of intraday markets that are precise up to one tick, so I am more than sure that it's me versus the AI :)


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules