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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Trump Converging Towards BrExit Factor Election WIN, Opinion Polls are WRONG Again!

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 03, 2016 - 08:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With just 4 full days to go until the polls open Tuesday 8th, Trump continues to bounce in the polls and betting markets that has resulted in near panic in the Democrat camp that less than a week ago were seen relaxing on expectations for a Hillary landslide election victory. But now, after last Fridays FBI bombshell all that has changed and the Clinton clan are busy crisscrossing the swing states, mainly attempting to bolster the lack lustre black vote that despite fearing Trumps rhetoric nevertheless are unable to find much incentive to get out and vote for the ultimate washington insider Hillary.


The opinion polls continue to show a shrinking lead for Hillary that now stands at just 1.7%, down form 2.2% yesterday her lowest polls lead since Mid September, with momentum still on Trumps side as the polls trend trajectory implies convergence by election day.

As for the betting markets, they continue to show Trump gaining ground as his odds of winning narrow from 3.75 yesterday to 3.5 today, still a long way to go to reach Hillary who now stands on 1.41, but at least the trend is finally in the right direction.

However, things are much worse for Hillary than her poll lead and the betting odds markets imply, as my analysis has consistently iterated that Trump does not actually ever need to be in the lead in the opinion polls to actually WIN the election due to the BrExit factor that allows for a 3-4% swing against the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being the first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps at least the past 40 years who I expected would capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and betting markets all getting the result very badly wrong, so instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people giving the establishment elite a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And since which all of my articles and videos have tended to conclude that Donald Trump still stood a chance of winning regardless of what the polls and the betting markets have been stating. However, I did say that I would revisit my forecast of September 25th much closer to election day just as I had done for my forecast for BrExit ahead of the June 23rd EU Referendum vote. And so here is my final look at the prospects for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election 2016 posted on 2nd November -

The bottom line is that the POLLS are WRONG, the BOOKIES are WRONG, JUST as they were WRONG for BREXIT, Just as they were WRONG for the May 2015 UK General Election and just as they were WRONG for the Scottish Sept 2014 Referendum, and now will be found to be WRONG for the US Presidential Election 2016!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

despe906
03 Nov 16, 19:03
AI

An article about a possible Trump win :

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/10/28/Algorithm-Solid-Track-Record-Predicting-Trump-Win?utm_source=talkmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange_module


Nadeem_Walayat
03 Nov 16, 19:48
Best AI

At this point in time the Best AI is that which is between your ears.

Being a programmer, I know its all about weighting of the factors, so in reality its not an AI forecasting anything but the programmer skewing the results in that which he wants to happen. As is the case with the polls.

The only REAL mechanism for arriving at the most probable is to put ones own money on the line.

Best

NW


despe906
03 Nov 16, 22:03
computer trader

Yeah, I have heard that a human trader can beat the black boxes as he is more nimble be being able to adapt to changing market conditions. But when one day we get computers that learn to adapt and adopt...

I regularly see setups in some type of intraday markets that are precise up to one tick, so I am more than sure that it's me versus the AI :)


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