Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors - 28th Jul 21
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class - 28th Jul 21
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? - 28th Jul 21
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? - 28th Jul 21
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders - 28th Jul 21
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis - 18th Jul 21
Dell S3220DGF Unboxing and Stand Assembly - 32 Inch 165hz Curved Gaming Monitor Amazon Discount - 18th Jul 21
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? - 18th Jul 21
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? - 18th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halving's Price Projection Forecasts Trend Trajectory - 18th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Has Hispanic / Latino Vote Won US Election for Hillary Clinton in Florida and Beyond?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 08, 2016 - 02:29 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Trump started off his election campaign by denigrating latino's, and thus it looks like Trump has achieved what no democrat has achieved to such great extent which is galvanise the Latino vote in unprecedented numbers to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate and thus it will be the estimated 6.5 million Latino's in Florida who could win Hillary Clinton the state and US Presidential election of 2016.


To illustrate the Latino factor at work and how they are playing a critical role in this election then the following table of the breakdown of the Latino vote over recent presidential elections illustrates the huge disadvantage that Donald Trump now stands at in terms of the critical Latino vote.

Hispanic / Latino Vote

Year Democrat Republican Spread
2000 62% 35% +27
2004 58% 40% +18
2008 67% 31% +36
2012 71% 27% +44
2016 79% 19% +60

What's worse for Trump then the share of the vote is the fact that a record number of Latinos are coming out to vote for Hillary in this election. For instance in the critical state of Florida, early voting is up by 87% to +453.8k on the numbers for 2012. This definitely looks likely to be the last US presidential election when white voters will be in the majority, and so Trump effectively represents a reaction against the process of America becoming a majority non white country.

So if Hillary wins tomorrow then it will be because the Latino's have won the election for her, and for that the only person Trump has to blame is himself, which I warned of in my following video of 2nd October, that he needs to STOP attacking minorities!


So as things stand tonight then it does look like that Trump has lost the US presidential election as a direct consequence of the huge surge in the Latino vote.

In terms of the polls, Hillary continues to benefit from the FBI's abrupt u-turn, with Hillary Clinton further pulling away by today standing on +2.9%, against +1.8% yesterday and +1.7% the day before.

Source: Real Clear Politics

The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead is reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which now forecasts a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% yesterday, against Trump trailing on 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Though Nate's forecast is at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times are giving Hillary a 85% probability of winning -

New York Times (4th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 317, Trump 209 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (3rd Nov 2016) - Hillary 48.5%, Trump 46.5%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (4th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (4th Nov 2016) - Clinton 71c, Trump 34c ($1 winner).

As for the betting markets, well after crashing yesterday to 6 again from a peak of 3.45 just a few days ago are currently trading better at 5.4. What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £440 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £22 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton win, which if does not happen would represent a huge shock result.

However the national polls don't accurately represent the real election battle which is taking place amongst some 9 BrExit swing states totaling 108 electoral college votes. Presently, based on a minimum 4% polls advantage the electoral college map breaks down into a tally for Hillary Clinton of 239 votes thus requiring just 31 to win, whilst Donald Trump based on the state polls has 191 electoral votes in the bag though still requiring a sizeable 79 to win.

However, what the pollsters are missing is what I termed as the 'BrExit Factor' that allows for a 3-4% swing AGAINST the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and the betting markets all got that result very badly wrong. So instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people raging against the establishment elite, the bankster crime syndicate and giving them a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election when Americans have an opportunity to give americas banking crime syndicate that owns most politicians a bloody nose.

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

Therefore whilst a 3-4% Brexit swing is unlikely to make much difference to those states standing on a 4% or greater poll lead for Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless implies that the 9 swing state listed are BrExit swing states that could go for Trump including the important state of Florida which TRUMP HAS to win to win the election.

So when one factors in the BrExit factor then despite the surge in the Latino vote to well beyond that of the last election, then this election is still not quite over yet and Trump could still win, albeit the last 48 hours have definitely NOT been good for Trump that has seen Hillary's national and state polls lead move by +1.2% in her favour! A huge and potentially election changing last minute move largely as a consequence of the FBI's political intervention Sunday afternoon that feeds into Donald Trumps narrative of the election being rigged.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in