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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Hillary Clinton Wins US Election 2016 According to Pollsters, Bookies and Stock Market, BrExit?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 08, 2016 - 11:05 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

As we count down the close of the polls virtually every opinion pollster analyst, book makers and the financial markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton election win. So is America ripe for its very own BrExit moment? When the polls turn out to be WRONG as they were for Brexit.


Stock Market

The Dow closed sharply higher for a second day as Hillary's Wall Street backers discount the victory of their bought and paid for candidate for President

Pollsters

Today Hillary Clinton further pulled away by standing at +3.2%, against +1.8% yesterday and +1.7% the day before.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Pollster Analysts

The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead is reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which currently forecasts a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% yesterday, against Trump trailing on 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Though Nate's forecast is at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times are giving Hillary a 85% probability of winning -

New York Times (8th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 323, Trump 215 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 49.2%, Trump 45.8%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (8th Nov 2016) - Clinton 84c, Trump 20c ($1 winner).

Betting Markets

As for the betting markets, well after crashing yesterday to 6 from a peak of 3.45 of just a few days ago, earlier today the price had bounced to 5.4, but now has worsened again to now stand at a new low of 6.6! What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £560 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £16 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton win, which if does not happen would represent a huge shock result.

Therefore at this point in time everything is STRONGLY pointing to a Hillary Clinton Win.

BrExit Factor

The 'BrExit Factor' allows for a 3-4% swing AGAINST the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and the betting markets all got that result very badly wrong.

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

My most recent video analysis pointed out that in this election the critical factor is the Latino vote in Florida, a vote that Trump has done is utmost to put off from voting from him, hence the collapse of the Republican Latino vote that my most recent video analysis covers:

As things stand with Hillary Clinton at +3.2%, which is against +1.3% just a few days ago means its going to be tough for the BrExit factor to overcome the FBI's political intervention on Sunday, +3.2% is literally in the Brexit critical zone of 3-4% of where Hillary has to be for a chance of winning. Which means the FBI's political intervention Sunday afternoon feeds into Donald Trumps narrative of this election being rigged, for it is THAT announcement that resulted in turning Hillary's +1.3% poll lead into today's +3.2%, which I am sure Trump will rage against over the coming days and weeks IF he loses.

The bottom line is that election is NOT over! Whilst Hillary on +3.2% is bad for Trump, but it is STILL within the BrExit range of 3% to 4% as being the probable swing zone AGAINST the opinion polls. This election night is likely to turn out to be nail biting stuff! For you, me, EVERYONE, hopefully by 4am UK time we will know the outcome.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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