Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales - 8th Dec 18
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill - 8th Dec 18
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold - 8th Dec 18
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? - 7th Dec 18
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - 7th Dec 18
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - 7th Dec 18
The Secret Weapon for Getting America 5G Ready - 7th Dec 18
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb - 7th Dec 18
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - 7th Dec 18
How easy is it to find a job in the UK iGaming industry? - 6th Dec 18
Curry's vs Jessops - Buying an Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera - 5th Dec 18
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - 5th Dec 18
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - 5th Dec 18
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution - 5th Dec 18
Profit from the Global Cannabis Boom by Investing in the Beverage Industry - 4th Dec 18
MP's Vote UK Government Behaving like a Dictatorship, in Contempt of Parliament - 4th Dec 18
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? - 4th Dec 18
Best Christmas LED String and Projector Lights for 2018 - Review - 4th Dec 18
The "Special 38" Markets You Should Trade ebook - 4th Dec 18
Subverting BrExit - AG Confirms May Backstop Deal Means UK Can NEVER LEAVE the EU! - 3rd Dec 18
The Bottled Water Bamboozle - 3rd Dec 18
Crude Oil After November’s Declines - 3rd Dec 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks - 3rd Dec 18
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities - 3rd Dec 18
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - 3rd Dec 18
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds - 3rd Dec 18
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process - 3rd Dec 18
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - 3rd Dec 18
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold - 2nd Dec 18
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon - 2nd Dec 18
Junior Gold Stocks Q3’18 Fundamentals - 1st Dec 18
Little-Known BDC Stocks Thrive Amid Rising Rates and Earn Investors +7% Yields - 1st Dec 18
Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - 1st Dec 18
Bank of England Warns UK House Prices 30% BrExit Crash! - 1st Dec 18
Gold Fundamentals Improving but Not Bullish Yet - 30th Nov 18
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - 30th Nov 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market - 30th Nov 18
The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks - 30th Nov 18
Trailblazers Leading the Way in Online Reputation Management - 30th Nov 18
The Shift in Trend from Physical Printers to Online Printers - 30th Nov 18
UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - 30th Nov 18
Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? - 29th Nov 18
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks - 29th Nov 18
Love. Fear. Inflation. A Precious Metals' Trifecta - 29th Nov 18
GBP/USD – Double Bottom or Further Declines? - 29th Nov 18
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? - 29th Nov 18
UK Government and Bank of England BrExit Economic Armageddon Propaganda - 29th Nov 18
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 - 28th Nov 18
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking - 28th Nov 18
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall - 28th Nov 18
GE’s Stock Price Crash Holds an Important Lesson About Investing - 28th Nov 18
5 Rules for Successful Trading - 28th Nov 18
Dollar Trend Imposes: EURUSD to Fall to 1.11 - 28th Nov 18
Gold, Original Money, Fiat Money - 28th Nov 18
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? - 28th Nov 18
Looking ahead: Why the Smart Money is Investing in Green Energy - 28th Nov 18
The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market - 27th Nov 18
Silver Trading and the Hands of a Broken Clock - 27th Nov 18
What's Inside SMIGGLE Christmas Advent Calender 2018 - 27th Nov 18
Investing in Recession Proof Trailer Parks - 27th Nov 18
The Advantages and Disadvantages of Debt Consolidation - 27th Nov 18
GDX, This Most-Hated Stock Could Return You 140% in Just a Few Months - 27th Nov 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

Hillary Clinton Wins US Election 2016 According to Pollsters, Bookies and Stock Market, BrExit?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 08, 2016 - 11:05 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

As we count down the close of the polls virtually every opinion pollster analyst, book makers and the financial markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton election win. So is America ripe for its very own BrExit moment? When the polls turn out to be WRONG as they were for Brexit.


Stock Market

The Dow closed sharply higher for a second day as Hillary's Wall Street backers discount the victory of their bought and paid for candidate for President

Pollsters

Today Hillary Clinton further pulled away by standing at +3.2%, against +1.8% yesterday and +1.7% the day before.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Pollster Analysts

The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead is reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which currently forecasts a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% yesterday, against Trump trailing on 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Though Nate's forecast is at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times are giving Hillary a 85% probability of winning -

New York Times (8th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 323, Trump 215 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 49.2%, Trump 45.8%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (8th Nov 2016) - Clinton 84c, Trump 20c ($1 winner).

Betting Markets

As for the betting markets, well after crashing yesterday to 6 from a peak of 3.45 of just a few days ago, earlier today the price had bounced to 5.4, but now has worsened again to now stand at a new low of 6.6! What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £560 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £16 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton win, which if does not happen would represent a huge shock result.

Therefore at this point in time everything is STRONGLY pointing to a Hillary Clinton Win.

BrExit Factor

The 'BrExit Factor' allows for a 3-4% swing AGAINST the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and the betting markets all got that result very badly wrong.

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

My most recent video analysis pointed out that in this election the critical factor is the Latino vote in Florida, a vote that Trump has done is utmost to put off from voting from him, hence the collapse of the Republican Latino vote that my most recent video analysis covers:

As things stand with Hillary Clinton at +3.2%, which is against +1.3% just a few days ago means its going to be tough for the BrExit factor to overcome the FBI's political intervention on Sunday, +3.2% is literally in the Brexit critical zone of 3-4% of where Hillary has to be for a chance of winning. Which means the FBI's political intervention Sunday afternoon feeds into Donald Trumps narrative of this election being rigged, for it is THAT announcement that resulted in turning Hillary's +1.3% poll lead into today's +3.2%, which I am sure Trump will rage against over the coming days and weeks IF he loses.

The bottom line is that election is NOT over! Whilst Hillary on +3.2% is bad for Trump, but it is STILL within the BrExit range of 3% to 4% as being the probable swing zone AGAINST the opinion polls. This election night is likely to turn out to be nail biting stuff! For you, me, EVERYONE, hopefully by 4am UK time we will know the outcome.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules