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US Presidential Election Betting Markets Odds Now Forecast Trump Could WIN - BrExit Factor!

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 09, 2016 - 02:11 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Observing extreme volatility on Election night as we countdown to the critical too close to call Florida result! For instance the betting markets an hour before the US polls closed had Trump trading at 6.6 - That's at about 11pm UK Time.


Then by 1am the betting market was virtually discounting a Trump election win and the odds for Trump extended to a high of 15! As illustrated by the 1am price of 12 which translates into a £100 bet converting into a £1,100 profit! Against a £100 bet for Hillary converting into a £10 profit!

Whilst the price for 2am was 5.4.

And the last price is 3.8 - Trump appears to be marching towards VICTORY AS FORECAST! So much for the likes of Nate Silver, the New York Times and the hundreds of clueless academics and professors who I am going to enjoy tearing to pieces in a series of articles. But first - FLORIDA BECKONS!

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

My most recent video analysis pointed out that in this election the critical factor was what was happening in Florida:

The bottom line is that the BrExit Factor WARNED that the polls are wrong to the degree of between 3-4%. Which meant whilst Hillary was +3.2% ahead before the polls closed. Trump could STILL WIN which has been the message of EVERY article and video I have posted for the past 2 months!

Meanwhile the wall street backers of Hillary Clinton are marking down stock futures with the Dow trading 300 points lower as I write.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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