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Trading Lessons

Euro Crisis and Contagion Almost Certain In 2017

Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis Dec 12, 2016 - 01:08 PM GMT

By: GoldCore

Currencies

A euro crisis and contagion is almost certain in 2017, Irish economist and writer David McWilliams has warned:

“It is almost certain that there will be another euro crisis in 2017. The last time we had a euro crisis, the focus of attention was Greece; today the vortex is Italy.


Italy is not Greece. Italy is the third-largest economy in the Eurozone. Italy is the second-largest manufacturing nation in the EU after Germany. Italy is the largest debtor in Europe.

The third-largest Italian bank is irredeemably bankrupt. Italy has no government and the people who are likely to win the next election want to take Italy out of the euro and replace the euro with their own currency, the lira.

Gold in EUR (YTD 2016)

These are the facts.

Our Finance Minister has said there is no problem in the Eurozone. I really don’t know what planet he is living on.

Unfortunately for the EU, if Greece was a tricky issue to deal with, Italy is — in economic terms — a massive Greece …”  See article here

Despite the recent sell off in gold prices, gold remains 12% higher in euro terms in 2016 – from €974/oz to €1,092/oz.

Gold is 10% higher in U.S. dollars and 30% higher in pounds.

The bout of euro strength we have seen in recent months is unsustainable and will in time give way to the euro weakening against gold. Gold will again hedge and protect investors and savers in the EU from euro weakness as it did during the financial crisis.

The dollar has had a massive rally and looks overvalued versus most currencies and indeed gold. U.S. assets have increasingly poor fundamentals and both U.S. stocks and bonds look vulnerable to sharp corrections and new bear markets.

The panacea of massive bailouts, bail-ins and massive currency printing by the ECB as announced last Thursday, may or may not prove effective at containing the crisis in 2017. However, investors with a more long term horizon are diversifying and looking to the inflation protecting and systemic hedging  qualities of gold.

The most effective hedging instrument and safe haven asset remains gold bullion. This is only the case if investors own allocated and segregated gold and silver coins and bars in the safest vaults, in the safest jurisdictions in the world.

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

12 Dec: USD 1,154.40, GBP 916.82 & EUR 1,089.41 per ounce
09 Dec: USD 1,168.90, GBP 927.64 & EUR 1,100.75 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 1,174.75, GBP 925.47 & EUR 1,088.64 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,171.25, GBP 929.62 & EUR 1,092.19 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 1,171.15, GBP 918.18 & EUR 1,086.94 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 1,164.90, GBP 915.84 & EUR 1,095.36 per ounce
02 Dec: USD 1,171.65, GBP 929.00 & EUR 1,100.88 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

12 Dec: USD 16.86, GBP 13.34 & EUR 15.90 per ounce
09 Dec: USD 16.95, GBP 13.45 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 17.13, GBP 13.50 & EUR 15.88 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 16.77, GBP 13.32 & EUR 15.64 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 16.79, GBP 13.17 & EUR 15.63 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 16.62, GBP 13.05 & EUR 15.54 per ounce

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

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Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

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