Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Handy Ways to Boost Your Home Income - 26th Mar 19
US Treasury Bond Yield Inversion and Political Fed Cycles - 26th Mar 19
Golan Heights Oil all about the Shekels - 26th Mar 19
Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst - 26th Mar 19
Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? - 25th Mar 19
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion - 25th Mar 19
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 25th Mar 19
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

The Recent Up-Trend in Gold Price is Temporary… Overall Trend is Still Down for 2017

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Jan 11, 2017 - 04:30 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Commodities Twenty-two radio interviews for the new book, 10 of them live.

At this point, my voice is tired. So are gold sellers.

Gold peaked at $1,934 in September of 2011 – the last major commodity to peak in the 30-year cycle that first peaked in mid-2008.


Silver peaked in late April 2011, after retesting its dramatic bubble peak in 1980, at $48. That’s when we gave our first and biggest sell signal for gold and silver.

After gold’s peak in September 2011, its first wave down ended up in a two-year-long trading range that vacillated between $1,525 and $1,800. During that time, I warned that when gold broke below that $1,525 level it was toast… and its major crash from $1,800 in late 2012 to $1,050 in late 2015 was indeed devastating.

Well, there’s likely another wave of that magnitude starting this year… As I’ve said all along, the next major target in gold is its 2008 low of around $700. To get technical with Elliott Wave Theory, that would retest the 4th-wave correction before the largest 5th-wave bubble run into $1,934. I still see gold landing somewhere between $650 and $750 in the next year or so, likely by the end of 2017.

But we’ll only see this after a significant bounce ahead…

At the beginning of 2016, I forecast that gold was very oversold. It was at $1,050 per ounce in late 2015 and so due for a major bear market rally back up to as high as $1,400. As I said it would, gold did bounce and got to $1,373 per ounce in early July 2016, at which point I recommended selling again. Lo and behold, gold fell rapidly to $1,124 in mid-December.

Gold is now very oversold again, but on a shorter-term basis, and its due for a minor rally to around $1,250. But given how oversold it has gotten, it could even go back to a slight new high near to $1,400. That could come by mid-February or so.

We’re currently betting against gold in our model Boom & Bust portfolio, and sitting pretty on that position. To project our profits while waiting for this mini-boom, Charles Sizemore, our Portfolio Manager, instructed subscribers to increase their stop loss in case this stronger rally ensues. But if it does get to near $1,400 again, that will be an even better time to bet against gold.

In the January Leading Edge issue, I’ll look at all major markets through the lens of the smart and dumb traders at the Commitment of Traders Report (www.cotbase.com). Of the commodities it looks at, gold has a bit more bounce potential ahead than oil and copper, but not likely for long. Here’s what that looks like…



The commercial hedgers are the smaller segment – the “smart money” – because they always go against the trends to hedge.

The large speculators are the “dumb money.” They simply follow the trends up and down and are always wrong at major tops and bottoms.

Gold hit a record divergence in dumb money net long at 320,000 and the smart money net short at 340,000… more so than even at the secondary top in late 2012 before the big crash into 2013-2015.

In other words, that was a bear market bounce, as I forecast at the beginning of 2016.

Gold then dropped 250 points into mid-December and is now bouncing again after being very oversold on a shorter-term basis.

The record divergence of July has not been erased yet. That would require going back to near neutral or slightly negative on this market. Currently the dumb money is still 100,000 long and the smart money 110,000 short.

That means there is much more to come on the downside after this short-term bounce resolves itself – again, likely by mid-February.

Silver had an even larger divergence a bit later into early August and looks to have even more downside potential.

My forecast of $700 gold and $10 silver is increasingly likely by the end of this year and almost certain in the next few years.

This rally will be the last chance for gold holdouts to get out!

The ultimate downside for gold at the bottom of the 30-year commodity cycle, between early 2020 and late 2022, is $400 or lower to erase the bubble that began accelerating in 2005. For silver those targets are as low as $5.

That’s when I would start to recommend buying gold and silver again longer term, with a target of $4,000-plus for gold by 2038-2040. The next 30-year commodity cycle could be the greatest ever seen because it will be driven by the demographically growing and still-urbanizing emerging world. They’re the ones who’ll be producing and consuming most of the gold and other commodities – especially India.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2016 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules