Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result - Nadeem_Walayat
6.The Stock Market Crash of 2017 That Never Was But Could it Still Come to Pass? - Sol_Palha
7.[TRADE ALERT] Write This Gold Stock Ticker Down Now - WallStreetNation
8.UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Orphaned Poisoned Waters,Severe Chronic Water Shortage Imminent - Richard_Mills
10.How The Smart Money Is Playing The Lithium Boom - OilPrice_Com
Last 7 days
Sheffield Great Flood of 2007, 10 Years On - Unique Timeline of What Happened - 24th Jun 17
US Stock Market Correction Could be Underway - 24th Jun 17
Proof That This Economic Recovery Narrative is False - 24th Jun 17
Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - 24th Jun 17
Gold Summer Doldrums - 23rd Jun 17
Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride? - 23rd Jun 17
Nether Edge By Election Result: Labour Win Sheffield City Council Seat by 132 Votes - 23rd Jun 17
Grenfell Fire: 600 of 4000 Tower Blocks Ticking Time Bomb Death Traps! - 22nd Jun 17
Car Sales About To Go Over The Cliff - 22nd Jun 17
LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA - 22nd Jun 17
More Stock Market Fluctuations Along New Record Highs - 22nd Jun 17
Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - 22nd Jun 17
Green Party Could Control Sheffield City Council Balance of Power Local Election 2018 - 22nd Jun 17
Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle - 22nd Jun 17
Steem Hard Forks & Now People Are Making Even More Money On Blockchain Steemit - 22nd Jun 17
4 Steps for Comparing Binary Options Providers - 22nd Jun 17
Nether Edge & Sharrow By-Election, Will Labour Lose Safe Council Seat, Sheffield? - 21st Jun 17
Stock Market SPX Making New Lows - 21st Jun 17
Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now - 21st Jun 17
Either Bitcoin Will Fail OR Bitcoin Is A Government Invention Meant To Enslave... - 21st Jun 17
Strength in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks and Its Implications - 21st Jun 17
Inflation is No Longer in Stealth Mode - 21st Jun 17
CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” - 20th Jun 17
Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? - 20th Jun 17
Trump Backs ISIS As He Pushes US Onto Brink of World War III With Russia - 20th Jun 17
Most Popular Auto Trading Tools for trading with Stock Markets - 20th Jun 17
GDXJ Gold Stocks Massacre: The Aftermath - 20th Jun 17
Why Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Promotion is RUBBISH! - 20th Jun 17
7 Signs You Should Add Gold To Your Portfolio Now - 19th Jun 17
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators - 19th Jun 17
Wireless Wars: The Billion Dollar Tech Boom No One Is Talking About - 19th Jun 17
Amey Playing Cat and Mouse Game with Sheffield Residents and Tree Campaigners - 19th Jun 17
Positive Stock Market Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? - 19th Jun 17
Gold Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down - 19th Jun 17
Stock Market Higher Highs Still Likely - 18th Jun 17
The US Government Clamps Down on Ability of Americans To Purchase Bitcoin - 18th Jun 17
NDX/NAZ Continue downward pressure on the US Stock Market - 18th Jun 17
Return of the Gold Bear? - 18th Jun 17
Are Sheffield's High Rise Tower Blocks Safe? Grenfell Cladding Fire Disaster! - 18th Jun 17
Globalist Takeover Of The Internet Moves Into Overdrive - 17th Jun 17
Crazy Charging Stocks Bull Market Random Thoughts - 17th Jun 17
Reflation, Deflation and Gold - 17th Jun 17
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy - 17th Jun 17
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 17
Drones Upending Business Models and Reshaping Industry Landscapes - 16th Jun 17
Grenfell Tower Cladding Fire Disaster, 4,000 Ticking Time Bombs, Sheffield Council Flats Panic! - 16th Jun 17
Heating Oil Bottom Is In.(probably) - 16th Jun 17
Here’s the Investing Reason Active Funds Can’t Beat Passive Funds—and It Worries Me a Lot - 16th Jun 17
Is There Gold “Hype” and is Gold an Emotional Trade? - 16th Jun 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The MRI 3D Report

SPX Stock Market Correction Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Apr 15, 2017 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2356. After a rally to SPX 2366 early Monday the market started to pullback. After a decline to SPX 2337 Tuesday morning the market rallied to 2353 by Wednesday morning. Then the market declined into the end of the trading week, closing at the SPX 2329 low. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit rose. On the uptick: export/import prices. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Beige book, the NY/Philly FED, and industrial production. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

As suspected, the corrective activity since the early March all-time SPX 2401 high was confirmed as a Minor wave 4 correction this week. This suggests Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii ended at that high, and Minor wave 4 has been underway since then. When a correction unfolds for this long, six weeks, before being confirmed, it is usually near its end.

The long-term count remains unchanged, except for upgrading the tentative green Minor 3 label to dark blue. A Major wave 1 of Primary III bull market is underway. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in Apr/Jun 2016, and Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in Aug/Nov 2016. Minor wave 3 just completed last month, and Minor wave 4 is currently underway. When it does conclude Minor wave 5 should take the market to all-time highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

As noted above a Minor 4 downtrend was confirmed this week, from the Minor 3 high at SPX 2401. The correction looks like it is unfolding in a double three: abc-x-abc. Or simply Minute a, Minute b, and Minute c. Minute a unfolded in three waves bottoming at SPX 2322. Minute b rallied in three waves to SPX 2378. Minute c is already unfolding in three waves and has hit SPX 2329 as of Thursday.

Should Minute c = Minute a then we should see a low around SPX 2299. Should Minute c extend, at SPX 2260 = 1.50 Minute a, or at SPX 2250 = 1.62 Minute a. Fibonacci supports are at SPX 2280 = 38.2% Minor 3 retracement, or at SPX 2243 = 50.0% retracement. There is OEW pivot support at the 2286 and 2270 pivots. And finally, the previous 4th wave bottomed at SPX 2267 which is wave support. Combining all these parameters the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivot ranges appear to be the most likely support area. Medium term support is currently at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The short term count we had been tracking since early-November appeared to be unfolding quite nicely until, and even a few days after, the FED raised rates on March 15th. The market had hit a high at SPX 2401 on March 1st, pulled back to SPX 2355 by March 9th, then rallied to SPX 2390 on March 15th. After that the market pulled back about 20 points by March 20th, then started to rise into the 21st. When news broke that the Ryan healthcare bill was short of votes the market, and the short term pattern, started to breakdown. The market then made a low at SPX 2322 on March 27th. But the rally that followed was clearly corrective. It is clear on the hourly charts the healthcare bill failure helped terminate the uptrend.

Nevertheless the Minor 3 uptrend was the longest in time and price of the three impulsive uptrends in this ongoing bull market. Corrections, thus far, have been quite shallow at about 5+% and between 110 and 130 SPX points. You can do the math from the SPX 2401 high. Short term support is at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly negative and lost 0.3%.

European markets were all negative and lost 2.1%

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 1.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.1%.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 2.5%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30, the NAHB at 10am, and after the close a speech from FED vice chair Fischer.. Tuesday: industrial production, housing starts and building permits. Wednesday: the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: existing home sales and options expiration.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife