Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market and Gold Stocks Trend Forecast Update - 25th Jul 17
Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks - 24th Jul 17
3 Stocks Sectors That Will Win in The Fed’s Great Balance-Sheet Unwind - 24th Jul 17
Activist Investors Are Taking Over Wall Street, Procter and Gamble Might Never Remain the Same - 24th Jul 17
Stock Market Still on Track - 24th Jul 17
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally - 24th Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - 22nd Jul 17
Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts - 22nd Jul 17
Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - 21st Jul 17
Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme - 21st Jul 17
GBP/USD Bearish Factors - 21st Jul 17
Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing - 21st Jul 17
Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? - 21st Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - 21st Jul 17
The Fed May Show Trump No Love - 20th Jul 17
The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis - 20th Jul 17
Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom - 20th Jul 17
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17
Bitcoin PullBack Is Over (For Now): Cryptocurrencies Gain Nearly A 50% In Last 48 Hours - 19th Jul 17
AAPL's 6% June slide - When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most - 19th Jul 17
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - 19th Jul 17
iGaming – Stock Prices - 19th Jul 17
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert Prechter - Book Review - 18th Jul 17
Ethereum Versus Bitcoin – Which Cryptocurrency Will Win The War? - 18th Jul 17
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny - 18th Jul 17
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 - 18th Jul 17
Why & How to Hedge the Growing Risks of Holding Stocks - 18th Jul 17
Relocation: Everything You Need to do for a Smooth Transition Abroad - 17th Jul 17
A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: It’s Time To Buy Brick And Mortar Retailers - 17th Jul 17
Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Price “Deja Vu” Corrective Sequence - 17th Jul 17
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? - 17th Jul 17
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario - 17th Jul 17
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - 17th Jul 17
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - 17th Jul 17
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices - 17th Jul 17
Stock Market More to Go - 17th Jul 17
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - 16th Jul 17
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction - 15th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts

SPX Stock Market Correction Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Apr 15, 2017 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2356. After a rally to SPX 2366 early Monday the market started to pullback. After a decline to SPX 2337 Tuesday morning the market rallied to 2353 by Wednesday morning. Then the market declined into the end of the trading week, closing at the SPX 2329 low. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit rose. On the uptick: export/import prices. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Beige book, the NY/Philly FED, and industrial production. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

As suspected, the corrective activity since the early March all-time SPX 2401 high was confirmed as a Minor wave 4 correction this week. This suggests Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii ended at that high, and Minor wave 4 has been underway since then. When a correction unfolds for this long, six weeks, before being confirmed, it is usually near its end.

The long-term count remains unchanged, except for upgrading the tentative green Minor 3 label to dark blue. A Major wave 1 of Primary III bull market is underway. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in Apr/Jun 2016, and Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in Aug/Nov 2016. Minor wave 3 just completed last month, and Minor wave 4 is currently underway. When it does conclude Minor wave 5 should take the market to all-time highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

As noted above a Minor 4 downtrend was confirmed this week, from the Minor 3 high at SPX 2401. The correction looks like it is unfolding in a double three: abc-x-abc. Or simply Minute a, Minute b, and Minute c. Minute a unfolded in three waves bottoming at SPX 2322. Minute b rallied in three waves to SPX 2378. Minute c is already unfolding in three waves and has hit SPX 2329 as of Thursday.

Should Minute c = Minute a then we should see a low around SPX 2299. Should Minute c extend, at SPX 2260 = 1.50 Minute a, or at SPX 2250 = 1.62 Minute a. Fibonacci supports are at SPX 2280 = 38.2% Minor 3 retracement, or at SPX 2243 = 50.0% retracement. There is OEW pivot support at the 2286 and 2270 pivots. And finally, the previous 4th wave bottomed at SPX 2267 which is wave support. Combining all these parameters the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivot ranges appear to be the most likely support area. Medium term support is currently at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The short term count we had been tracking since early-November appeared to be unfolding quite nicely until, and even a few days after, the FED raised rates on March 15th. The market had hit a high at SPX 2401 on March 1st, pulled back to SPX 2355 by March 9th, then rallied to SPX 2390 on March 15th. After that the market pulled back about 20 points by March 20th, then started to rise into the 21st. When news broke that the Ryan healthcare bill was short of votes the market, and the short term pattern, started to breakdown. The market then made a low at SPX 2322 on March 27th. But the rally that followed was clearly corrective. It is clear on the hourly charts the healthcare bill failure helped terminate the uptrend.

Nevertheless the Minor 3 uptrend was the longest in time and price of the three impulsive uptrends in this ongoing bull market. Corrections, thus far, have been quite shallow at about 5+% and between 110 and 130 SPX points. You can do the math from the SPX 2401 high. Short term support is at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly negative and lost 0.3%.

European markets were all negative and lost 2.1%

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 1.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.1%.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 2.5%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30, the NAHB at 10am, and after the close a speech from FED vice chair Fischer.. Tuesday: industrial production, housing starts and building permits. Wednesday: the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: existing home sales and options expiration.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife