Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Chaos Capitalists Short Countries - How Chanos Got China Wrong - 24th Apr
Artificial Intelligence Defines the Political News Narrative - 24th Apr 18
Stock Market "Oops, They Did It Again" - 24th Apr 18
Fox in the Henhouse: Why Interest Rates Are Rising - 23rd Apr 18
Stocks and Bonds, This is Not a Market - 23rd Apr 18
Happy Anniversary Silver Investors! - 23rd Apr 18
The Hottest Commodity Play In 2018 - 23rd Apr 18
Stock Market Correction Turns Consolidation - 23rd Apr 18
Silver Squeeze, Gold Fails & GDX Breadth - 23rd Apr 18
US Economy Is Cooked, the Growth Cycle has Peaked - 23rd Apr 18
Inflation, With a Shelf Life - 23rd Apr 18 - Gary_Tanashian
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Is Calling For A Continued Rally - 22nd Apr 18
SWEATCOIN - Get PAID to WALK! Incentive to Burn Fat and Lose Weight - Review - 22nd Apr 18
Sheffield Local Elections 2018 Forecast Results - 22nd Apr 18
How Long Does it take for a 10%+ Stock Market Correction to Make New Highs - 21st Apr 18
Sheffield Ruling Labour Party Could Lose 10 Council Seats at May Local Elections - 21st Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target - 21st Apr 18
Gold Price Nearing Bull Market Breakout, Stocks to Follow - 20th Apr 18
What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? - 20th Apr 18
Stock Market May "Let Go" - 20th Apr 18
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top - 20th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - 20th Apr 18
The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know - 20th Apr 18
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

SPX Stock Market Correction Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Apr 15, 2017 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2356. After a rally to SPX 2366 early Monday the market started to pullback. After a decline to SPX 2337 Tuesday morning the market rallied to 2353 by Wednesday morning. Then the market declined into the end of the trading week, closing at the SPX 2329 low. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit rose. On the uptick: export/import prices. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Beige book, the NY/Philly FED, and industrial production. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

As suspected, the corrective activity since the early March all-time SPX 2401 high was confirmed as a Minor wave 4 correction this week. This suggests Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii ended at that high, and Minor wave 4 has been underway since then. When a correction unfolds for this long, six weeks, before being confirmed, it is usually near its end.

The long-term count remains unchanged, except for upgrading the tentative green Minor 3 label to dark blue. A Major wave 1 of Primary III bull market is underway. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in Apr/Jun 2016, and Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in Aug/Nov 2016. Minor wave 3 just completed last month, and Minor wave 4 is currently underway. When it does conclude Minor wave 5 should take the market to all-time highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

As noted above a Minor 4 downtrend was confirmed this week, from the Minor 3 high at SPX 2401. The correction looks like it is unfolding in a double three: abc-x-abc. Or simply Minute a, Minute b, and Minute c. Minute a unfolded in three waves bottoming at SPX 2322. Minute b rallied in three waves to SPX 2378. Minute c is already unfolding in three waves and has hit SPX 2329 as of Thursday.

Should Minute c = Minute a then we should see a low around SPX 2299. Should Minute c extend, at SPX 2260 = 1.50 Minute a, or at SPX 2250 = 1.62 Minute a. Fibonacci supports are at SPX 2280 = 38.2% Minor 3 retracement, or at SPX 2243 = 50.0% retracement. There is OEW pivot support at the 2286 and 2270 pivots. And finally, the previous 4th wave bottomed at SPX 2267 which is wave support. Combining all these parameters the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivot ranges appear to be the most likely support area. Medium term support is currently at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The short term count we had been tracking since early-November appeared to be unfolding quite nicely until, and even a few days after, the FED raised rates on March 15th. The market had hit a high at SPX 2401 on March 1st, pulled back to SPX 2355 by March 9th, then rallied to SPX 2390 on March 15th. After that the market pulled back about 20 points by March 20th, then started to rise into the 21st. When news broke that the Ryan healthcare bill was short of votes the market, and the short term pattern, started to breakdown. The market then made a low at SPX 2322 on March 27th. But the rally that followed was clearly corrective. It is clear on the hourly charts the healthcare bill failure helped terminate the uptrend.

Nevertheless the Minor 3 uptrend was the longest in time and price of the three impulsive uptrends in this ongoing bull market. Corrections, thus far, have been quite shallow at about 5+% and between 110 and 130 SPX points. You can do the math from the SPX 2401 high. Short term support is at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly negative and lost 0.3%.

European markets were all negative and lost 2.1%

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 1.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.1%.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 2.5%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30, the NAHB at 10am, and after the close a speech from FED vice chair Fischer.. Tuesday: industrial production, housing starts and building permits. Wednesday: the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: existing home sales and options expiration.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules