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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash

Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets Apr 22, 2017 - 06:43 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The French people, European Union and financial markets are counting down to a potential seismic history shattering election result event, perhaps bigger than Britains' BrExit, perhaps even a bigger shock than Trump winning the US Election, for a Le Pen / Melenchon extremes of the far right and far left result would mark the starting point for the DEATH of the Euro-zone and soon afterwards the European Union.


The market consequences of which will me immediate and severe as the French stock market would literally haves sleep walked into such an election outcome. The CAC40 would crash by at least 10% and probably by more than 15% triggering a contagion plunge across the worlds stock markets as the financial shockwave's rippled out from Paris.

And similarly the euro has remained stable all year, which means the market is primed for a shock wave event that could send the Euro plunging to a new low for 2017, which could even be along the lines of that which Sterling suffered in the aftermath of BrExit of upwards of 10% plunge. A huge move for one of the worlds major reserve currencies as the markets started to discount the possibility of the death of the Euro!

French and most other european bond markets would crash sending interest rates soaring, the only nation to buck the trend would likely be the German bond market as investors would rush to buy German bund's.

A Run on French Banks?

Stocks, bonds and the euro plunging could trigger panic amongst French savers, who fearing the worst rush to draw their savings out of the French banks triggering a run on the banks acting to pour fuel onto the crisis that could see the Euro-zones second largest economy introduce capital controls along the lines of the Greek debt crisis, limiting the amount of euros that french bank customers can draw at ATM's and cashiers. This would be disastrous for confidence in the French economy that would enter a death spiral result in a loss of GDP even worse than experienced in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

As a reminder, Le Pen would seek to take France out of the Euro-zone via a FrExit EU referendum and is so far to the right that she emerges on the far left with many of her polices appearing to match that of the extreme left Melenchon, anti-market, anti-free trade, where Melenchon like Le Pen is also anti-German pro Putin and would seek to impose a host of anti-market pro socialism reforms including a 100% tax rate on those earning above e360,000 triggering a French recession, and where his policies of stimulus through printing hundreds of billions of euro debt would also inevitably mean France would be forced to leave the Euro-zone, as the ECB controls the printing of Euro's and not the central banks of Euro zone members.

Therefore a Le Pen vs Melenchon first round outcome would result in an immediate blood bath on the financial markets, the Euro would plunge and the CAC40 stocks index would crash, sending euro bond markets into free fall as interest rates soared.

As for what I deem to be the most probable outcome for both the first and second rounds of the french presidential election, see my most recent video analysis -

Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017

The BrExit War

The BrExit war series of videos is based on my following in-depth analysis that explain what Britain needs to do to win the BrExit War that the UK is engaged in with the European Union.

The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to our youtube channel for videos in the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

JustAnotherExBanker
24 Apr 17, 16:44
Le Pen is not right wing!

Nadeem,

I have no idea why the British media continually refer to Marine Le Pen as a right-winger. If they looked at her party's manifesto they'd find it's full of Socialist policies - state intervention all the way.

Even more left-wing is the British National Party. Their 2015 General Election manifesto read like Labour's one from 1945 on steroids.

Therefore, Le Pen is National Socialist in the true sense of the expression (not Nazi but with policies which would lead France to its doom).

Thanks,

Rob.


Nadeem_Walayat
25 Apr 17, 09:38
National Socialist

As I said above, go far right enough and you will emerge on the extreme left.

The extreme left and extreme right like to think they are on opposing sides but in reality they are the same.


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