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Trading Commodity Markets

SPX Showing Weakness, but No Breakdown, Yet

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 May 10, 2017 - 02:13 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The SPX futures have been testing yesterday’s low, but no breakdown, yet. I am still treating the peak at 2403.87 as wave [a] of 5. Since it is an (a)-(b)-(c) wave already, it may be complete, but we will not have confirmation until SPX declines beneath the Wave 4 low at 2379.75.

ZeroHedge reports, “Just as the reflation trade appeared to be finding its latest wind, after a modest rise in oil prices over the past 24 hours (now that Andurand has finished liquidating his book) and a halt to the commodity rout in China, Trump threw the markets for a loop again with his firing of James Comey, which has implications on everything from Trump's tax policy (most likely delayed due to more infighting between, and within, the two parties) to US geopolitics (will Trump launch another attack, this time against N. Korea to deflect from this scandal?)”


VIX futures are hugging the flat line this morning.

ZeroHedge commented yesterday, “Momentum Trader: It’s going to zero!

Sales: Protection is worthless. Why pay up for protection, it always turns out worthless?

Quant Trader: The skew and relative steepness makes timing critical on any purchase. The theta decay is virtually impossible to overcome.

Desk Head: Why aren’t we selling more?”

The NYSE Hi-Lo Index appears to be declining, but no signal, yet. The mid-Cycle and 50-day MA are at 100.42 and 87.82, respectively. The real bogey appears to be the last low at 35.00 for a confirmed sell signal.

TNX appears to have made its reversal this morning. Money flows appear to have reversed back into Treasuries.

The Shanghai Index made a Trading Cycle bounce yesterday. The bounce may last until Friday or possibly Tuesday, at the latest. However, by any standards, this decline is just starting.

The next Master Cycle low appears to be due in mid-June.

WTI may be in its second phase of the correction in which it may test the underside of the neckline. The interesting thing is that it appears to have another Master Cycle low due in a week or so due to the extension of the last one. The next low may also be extended, but we will have to evaluate it as it comes..

SPX Showing Weakness, but No Breakdown, Yet

The SPX futures have been testing yesterday’s low, but no breakdown, yet. I am still treating the peak at 2403.87 as wave [a] of 5. Since it is an (a)-(b)-(c) wave already, it may be complete, but we will not have confirmation until SPX declines beneath the Wave 4 low at 2379.75.

ZeroHedge reports, “Just as the reflation trade appeared to be finding its latest wind, after a modest rise in oil prices over the past 24 hours (now that Andurand has finished liquidating his book) and a halt to the commodity rout in China, Trump threw the markets for a loop again with his firing of James Comey, which has implications on everything from Trump's tax policy (most likely delayed due to more infighting between, and within, the two parties) to US geopolitics (will Trump launch another attack, this time against N. Korea to deflect from this scandal?)”

VIX futures are hugging the flat line this morning.

ZeroHedge commented yesterday, “Momentum Trader: It’s going to zero!

Sales: Protection is worthless. Why pay up for protection, it always turns out worthless?

Quant Trader: The skew and relative steepness makes timing critical on any purchase. The theta decay is virtually impossible to overcome.

Desk Head: Why aren’t we selling more?”

The NYSE Hi-Lo Index appears to be declining, but no signal, yet. The mid-Cycle and 50-day MA are at 100.42 and 87.82, respectively. The real bogey appears to be the last low at 35.00 for a confirmed sell signal.

TNX appears to have made its reversal this morning. Money flows appear to have reversed back into Treasuries.

The Shanghai Index made a Trading Cycle bounce yesterday. The bounce may last until Friday or possibly Tuesday, at the latest. However, by any standards, this decline is just starting.

The next Master Cycle low appears to be due in mid-June.

WTI may be in its second phase of the correction in which it may test the underside of the neckline. The interesting thing is that it appears to have another Master Cycle low due in a week or so due to the extension of the last one. The next low may also be extended, but we will have to evaluate it as it comes..

Regards,

Tony

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Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

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