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Will Sheffield Labour Lose MP Seats in BrExit Election 2017?

ElectionOracle / Sheffield Jun 02, 2017 - 04:51 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

A perfect storm is about to hit the Labour party where even Labour MP's in the capital city of the Peoples Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire may not be immune to what is likely to transpire, a wipeout of the Labour party at the polls where the driving forces are BrExit, as Theresa May makes a convincing argument for requiring a large majority towards helping ensure the strongest possible hand during the BrExit negotiations without subversion from the Scottish Nationalists or Labour's borrow and spend agenda. After all Sheffield did vote for BrExit.


On top of Labour's poor national picture are the local issues of Labour city council incompetence and blind disregard for the repeated expressed wishes of the people of Sheffield to stop ordering Amey to take chainsaws to thousands of Sheffield's biggest and best Trees that has angered many tens of thousands of Sheffield residents with dozens of campaign groups having sprung up on the stumps of thousands of killed trees.

Watch the following two videos for a taste of Sheffield's Tree's issue's and the Labour city council and MP's blind disregard for what's best for Sheffield as they cosy up to Spanish Ferrovial family owned Amey to the tune of £2 billion pounds!

So all in all Labour faces a perfect storm both nationally and locally which means Labour could lose a Sheffield MP or two!

Ignoring YouGov that is gyrating all over the place as they attempt to corner the shock polls market. The Conservatives on average still lead Labour by a good 10-12%, against a 6% lead at the May 2015 election, which implies further seat losses on the Labours poor performance of May 2015.

The key dynamics at work will be the number of UKIP voters in each constituency most of whom are expected to vote for the Conservatives.

So will Sheffield Labour Lose any of their MP's at the June 8th election?

Sheffield Central

Labour Paul Blomfield 24308 55%
Green Party Jillian Creasy 6999 15.8%
Conservative Stephanie Roe 4917 11.1%
Liberal Democrat Joe Otten 4278 9.7%
       

The Conservative 10-12% poll lead is clearly nowhere near enough to unseat Paul Blomfield despite the best efforts of the Green Party. Nor are the Lib-Dems in any position to threaten Labour.

Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

Labour Gill Furniss 22663 56.6%
UKIP John Booker 8856 22.1%
Conservative Elise Dünweber 4407 11%
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Harston 1802 4.5%

Again Labours lead is far too large for any BrExit election upset in Sheffield Brightside. For instance even if all of the other parties combined would not be able to unseat Labour.

Sheffield Heeley

Labour Louise Haigh 20269 48.2%
UKIP Howard Denby 7315 17.4%
Conservative Stephen Castens 6792 16.2%
Liberal Democrat Simon Clement-Jones 4746 11.3%

Sheffield Heeley is another strong Labour seat. Where even if every UKIP voter this time voted for the Conservatives, they still would come nowhere near winning the seat.

Sheffield South East

Labour Clive Betts 21439 51.4%
UKIP Steven Winstone 9128 21.9%
Conservative Matt Sleat 7242 17.4%
Liberal Democrat Gail Smith 2226 5.3%

Sheffield South East is another rock solid Labour seat that would require a miracle for the Conservatives to win, one of every UKIP and Lib Dem voter.

So my conclusion is that it despite the people of Sheffield voting for BrExit, it looks like mission impossible for the Tories to unseat any of Sheffield's Labour MP's, despite city council incompetence by getting into bed with the Spanish Ferrovial family owned Amey for 25 years as they rip Sheffield bare of several more thousands of big trees as though Sheffield is being punished for voting for BrExit in June 2016.

So what about South Yorkshires lone Lib Dem, Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam?

Sheffield Hallam

Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 22,215 40%
Labour Oliver Coppard 19,862 35.8%
Conservative Ian Walker 7,544 13.6%
UKIP Joe Jenkins 3,575 6.4%

 

Which I will cover in my next article in this BrExit election series.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for the next analysis in this series as I countdown to my UK general election 2017 final forecast conclusion and to our youtube channel for videos in this and the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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