Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Trend Relationship Video - 23rd Sep 18
US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade - 23rd Sep 18
Gerald Celente Warns Fed May Bring Down the Economy, Crash Markets - 23rd Sep 18
Top 3 Side Jobs for Day Traders - 23rd Sep 18
Gold Exodus to Reverse - 22nd Sep 18
Bitcoin Trader SCAM WARNING - Peter Jones, Dragons Den Fake Facebook Ads - 22nd Sep 18
China Is Building the World’s Largest Innovation Economy - 21st Sep 18
How Can New Companies Succeed in the Overcrowded Online Gambling Market? - 21st Sep 18
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

High Flying NDX/NAZ Hit an Air Pocket

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jun 10, 2017 - 01:46 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

An interesting end to a mostly choppy week. The market started the week at SPX 2439. After a tick up to the all-time high at SPX 2440 on Monday, the market pulled back to 2425 by Wednesday. Then after the ECB meeting, the much awaited Comey testimony, and the UK election fiasco, the SPX hit an all-time high at 2446 on Friday. After the high, however, the Tech sector went into freefall, pulling down the SPX to end the week at 2432. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.0%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: ISM, factory orders, consumer credit, the WLEI and the Q2 GDP estimate. On the uptick: weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, retail sales, and industrial production. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

The long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle wave 2 ended in 2009 at SPX 667. Primary I of Cycle wave I, during this new Super cycle wave 3, topped in 2015 at SPX 2135. Then after a bear market Primary wave II to SPX 1810 by early 2016, Primary wave III was underway.

Primary wave III is currently unfolding with Major 1 of the five Major waves. Major wave 1 has thus far divided into three of the five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate iii started to subdivide into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor wave 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 of Intermediate iii has been underway since April 2017.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The Minor 5 uptrend has been rising since April at SPX 2329. It is subdividing into five Minute waves, as did Minor waves 1 and 3. Minute wave i ended in May at SPX 2406, and Minute wave ii also ended in May at SPX 2353. Minute wave iii appears to have just ended on Friday at SPX 2446, and Minute wave iv is likely underway now. When it concludes the SPX should again rally to all-time highs. There does appear to be, however, a slight problem.

The Tech sector, which has been driving the general market high since November appears to have ended its uptrend on Friday. We can count 13-waves up from Nov-Jun for its Intermediate wave iii. Certainly it could extend further, but this would be more of an exception to a normal probability. The NDX/NAZ both have weekly/daily negative divergences, have completed 13-waves up during a lengthy seven-month uptrend, and were down more than 3% from their all-time high at one point just on Friday.

This potential activity suggests the SPX/DOW can complete their uptrends, and their Intermediate wave iii, but without much support from the Tech sector. The likely outcome is limited new highs, while the NDX/NAZ rebound off their lows. As a result we are adding in one more pivot we had planned to ignore until Friday’s events: SPX 2456. Medium term support is now at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the Minor wave 4 downtrend low at SPX 2329 in April the market has progressed in three Minute waves up to SPX 2446. The first wave Minute i advanced in 9-waves on our shortest time-frame, and the third advanced in 5-waves on the same timeframe. Plus, wave i was 77 points (2329-2406), and wave iii was longer at 93 points (2353-2446). On Friday, after that SPX 2446 high, the market sold off to SPX 2416 in a matter of hours. This selloff looks like Minute wave iv underway.

During Minute ii the market declined from a SPX 2406 all-time high to 2353 in just two-days. Then Minute iii was underway. This suggests Minute wave iv may end quite quickly as well. Possibly Monday/Tuesday. Then Minute wave v should be underway to new highs. With the Tech sector unlikely to make new highs in the weeks ahead. The Cyclical sector is unlikely to get very far in its Minute wave v. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just below neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets for the week were mixed ending collectively unchanged.

European markets for the week were also mixed ending with a 0.1% loss.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, while the NYSE gained 0.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 3.8%.

Gold is in an uptrend but lost 0.7%.

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 0.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Budget deficit at 2pm. Tuesday: the PPI. Wednesday: the CPI, retail sales, business inventories, and the FED is expected to raise rates 25 bps. Thursday: jobless claims, import/export prices, NY/Philly FED, industrial production, and the NAHB. Friday: housing starts, building permits, and consumer sentiment. Best to your week.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules