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Stock & Commodity Markets Analysis and Commentary

Commodities / Commodities Trading Aug 22, 2008 - 09:14 AM GMT

By: INO

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe STOCK INDEXES Stock Market Analysis
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday extending this week's decline and spiked below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1893.90. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing near 1893.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1994.18 is the next upside target.


The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1246.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1287.15 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The Dow closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,492. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11,221 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,566 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

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INTEREST RATES Interest Rates Analysis

September T-bonds closed down 10/32's at 117-24.

September T-bonds closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 118-17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 118-08. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 118-17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117-01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-03.    

ENERGY MARKETS Energy Commodity Markets Analysis
October crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.03 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Today's rally was triggered by rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. objected to Russia's invasion of Georgia, while Russia was upset by Poland's agreement to host a U.S. missile defense system. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 125.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 125.48. First support is the 10-day movi ng average crossing at 115.22. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 108.98.

September heating oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.64 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 347.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 313.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 335.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 347.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 313.50. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 302.40.

September unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.32 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 311.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 289.33 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 306.54. Second resistance level is the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 311.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.32. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 289.36.

September Henry natural gas closed higher due to technical short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this summer's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.591 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends this summer's decline, last December's low crossing at 7.420 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.388. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.591. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 7.780. Second support is last December's low crossing at 7.420.

CURRENCIES Currency Market Analysis

The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.68 signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.18 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this summer's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 78.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.56. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 78.14. First support is today's low crossing at 76.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average resistance crossing at 75.18.

The September Euro closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.129 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.659 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.659 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 148.800. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.659. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 146.090. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 144.917.

The September British Pound closed higher due to technical short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1.8280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8759 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8759. Second resistance is broken support marked by May's low crossing at 1.9196. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.8471. Second support is weekly support crossing near 1.8280.

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9169 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9355 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9355 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9225. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9355. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .9057. Second support is February's low crossing at .9030.

The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.49 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If September extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of the November-August decline crossing at 97.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.78. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 97.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.15. Second support is August's low crossing at 93.14.  

The September Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9191 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If September extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9344 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9123 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9259. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9344. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9123. Second support is last week's low crossing at .9050.

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PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals Market Analysis
October gold closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 818.60 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 862.40 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 862.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 755.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 841.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 848.80. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 744.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 755.90.

September silver closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.938 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the August 2007 low crossing at 12.080 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13.875. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.938. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 12.200. Second support is last August's low crossing at 12.080.

September copper closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.57 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 375.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 356.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 375.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.57. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.22.

FOOD & FIBER Agricultural Commodities Analysis

September coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends yesterday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1370 09. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 14.225 is the next upside target.  

September cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.46 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 30.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.77 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

October sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 14.69 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 12.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

October cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 72.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 63.10 is the next downside target.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

December Corn closed up 22 1/2-cents at 6.17 1/2.

December corn gapped up and closed higher on Thursday spiking above the previous reaction high crossing at 6.22. Profit taking tempered some of today's gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 6.50 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 6.50 1/4. First support is today's gap crossing at 5.97 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70 3/4.  

December wheat closed up 22 3/4-cents at 9.22 1/4.

December wheat gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. If December extends this month's rally, June's high crossing at 9.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 23 1/2-cents at 9.50 3/4.

December Kansas City Wheat gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, June's high crossing at 10.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.68 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

December Minneapolis wheat closed up 27 1/4-cents at 9.82 1/4.

December Minneapolis wheat gapped up and closed higher on Thursday extending this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, gap resistance crossing at 10.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX Agricultural Commodities Analysis

November soybeans closed up 48-cents at 13.48.

November soybeans gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday extending Wednesday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.97 1/2. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last week's low, the July 31st reaction high crossing at 14.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

December soybean meal closed up $5.00 at $358.57.

December soybean meal gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 348.20. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 3.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 327.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

December soybean oil closed up 250 pts. at 56.35.

December soybean oil gapped up and closed limit up and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.98 on Thursday confirming that a double bottom with April's low has been posted. The limit up close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the August 4th gap crossing at 57.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

LIVESTOCK LiveStock Futures Analysis

October hogs closed down $0.32 at $74.77.

October hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.20. A short covering rally tempered some of today's losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 71.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.97 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.20. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.97. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 74.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.35.

February bellies closed down $0.67 at $98.57.

February bellies closed lower on Thursday but the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's gap crossing at 96.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews last week's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target.

October cattle closed up $1.30 at 106.30.

October cattle closed higher on Thursday due to technical short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 103.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 108.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

October feeder cattle closed down $0.65 at $112.52.

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday due to higher grain and meal prices, as it remains poised to extend this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 110.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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