Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales - 8th Dec 18
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill - 8th Dec 18
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold - 8th Dec 18
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? - 7th Dec 18
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - 7th Dec 18
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - 7th Dec 18
The Secret Weapon for Getting America 5G Ready - 7th Dec 18
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb - 7th Dec 18
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - 7th Dec 18
How easy is it to find a job in the UK iGaming industry? - 6th Dec 18
Curry's vs Jessops - Buying an Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera - 5th Dec 18
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - 5th Dec 18
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - 5th Dec 18
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution - 5th Dec 18
Profit from the Global Cannabis Boom by Investing in the Beverage Industry - 4th Dec 18
MP's Vote UK Government Behaving like a Dictatorship, in Contempt of Parliament - 4th Dec 18
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? - 4th Dec 18
Best Christmas LED String and Projector Lights for 2018 - Review - 4th Dec 18
The "Special 38" Markets You Should Trade ebook - 4th Dec 18
Subverting BrExit - AG Confirms May Backstop Deal Means UK Can NEVER LEAVE the EU! - 3rd Dec 18
The Bottled Water Bamboozle - 3rd Dec 18
Crude Oil After November’s Declines - 3rd Dec 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks - 3rd Dec 18
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities - 3rd Dec 18
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - 3rd Dec 18
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds - 3rd Dec 18
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process - 3rd Dec 18
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - 3rd Dec 18
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold - 2nd Dec 18
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon - 2nd Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

As the Gold, Stocks, and Bond Markets Macro Turns…

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018 Apr 07, 2018 - 05:02 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

  1. Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
  2. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
  3. Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.

As we’ve noted, the two star Amigos (Steve Martin & Chevy Chase) were bracing for a smash against the yield Continuum ™ limiter and the conspicuous weakening of stocks vs. gold since February. The Martin Short Amigo is goofier, and on his own schedule. He’s a lesser light, after all. The two stars are making the headlines.

Beginning with Steve Martin’s character, the 30yr yield Continuum ™ hit the 100 month EMA ‘limiter’ and reversed. This does not have to be a long-term reversal. The point was for yields, which had been riding higher with stocks and risk ‘on’ assets, to hit and reverse or consolidate. What comes next is open to new analysis. We’d been expecting yields to rise to these limiters since last October and they have done so.

So in October and November we planned for yields to rise (bonds to decline) but in Q1 2018 as heavy hitting experts like Bill Gross, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones were proclaiming “bond bear!”right at the yield limiters while the CoT and sentiment profiles were positive for bonds, a consolidation (at least) was in the bag. Again, this indicator is now history and we move to the others.

While the major trend is still up in SPX/SPY vs. Gold/GLD, the daily view shows why Chevy Chase has his eyes closed. Amigo #1 is not painting a pretty picture in 2018. At some point this negativity would turn the long-term trend down.

A lower low to the 2017 low in SPX/Gold would go a long way toward flipping the macro over like a capsized boat (or ship of fools, if you like).

Finally, he of the unchanging trend. The Martin Short Amigo may be the last to get the memo that the happy-go-lucky riders are destined to hit their respective walls. The yield curve continues to flatten and one day when it stops flattening and starts steepening systemic stress under pains of deflationary contraction, inflationary excess or some bizarre global mix of the two will be indicated.

Aside from the Amigos, we have been watching the internals of the Semiconductor sector, which gave us the initial positive economic cycle clues in January-March of 2013 and a companion bullish indicator we used back then; cyclical Palladium vs. counter-cyclical Gold.

Well look here, daily PALL/Gold is tanking and as we noted in an NFTRH update during yesterday’s big up day in stocks, this was in negative divergence to any stock market joy.

Weekly PALL/Gold is quite concerning as well. If the time comes that you see those two moving averages crossed down, it will be a solid bear signal for the economic cycle and most of the risk ‘on’ assets floating along with it.

The above is by no means comprehensive. There are many more indicators and considerations that we track each step of the way. But I don’t believe in just presenting my views for people to consider without backing them up with real data and historical touch points.

The above, from the Amigos to the Metallic Indicators like PALL/Gold are part of a macro picture that needs to be respected. For example, yields rose with the post-election bull, stocks out performed gold with the good times since 2011, the yield curve has flattened with the boom and Palladium rose vs. Gold on the positive cycle. If some or all of these trends continue to turn and/or start to turn you can rationally expect outcomes very opposite to the previous trends.

Personally, I am and have been in ‘balance’ mode with a very high cash level (T-bill funds paying increasing income with each Fed rate hike) until enough indicators say ‘start to lean dude!’.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 40-55 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2018 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules