Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

Russian Strategic Bombers in Washington's Backyard

Politics / New Cold War Sep 10, 2008 - 04:56 PM GMT

By: STRATFOR

Politics Summary
Two Russian Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bombers reportedly landed in Venezuela on Sept. 10. If this is a Russian military foray into the Caribbean, it will be the first since the Cold War. The move also give Venezuela an opportunity to annoy the United States by letting Washington's old Cold War rival operate from its territory, in the United States' backyard.


Analysis

Two Russian Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bombers reportedly landed in Venezuela on Sept. 10, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Just two days before, the Russian navy confirmed claims by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that the two countries would conduct joint naval exercises in Venezuelan waters in November. That, in conjunction with rumors about similar flights to Cuba , is sufficient to spark concern over a potential renewed interest on the Kremlin's part in tinkering in the Caribbean.

Though largely a legacy platform from the Cold War, the Tu-160 is Russia's newest and longest-range strategic bomber. With a maximum unrefuelled range of more than 6,600 nautical miles, it has the legs to reach Venezuela — with plenty of distance to spare. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the bomber has been upgraded, and several new airframes are reportedly under production. They are employed primarily as long-range cruise missile carriers, and are not generally used in maritime interdiction. The Tu-160 is the quintessential reminder of the unique military position Moscow retains through its inheritance of late-Soviet technology and weapons.

Related Special Topic Page

While Russia has long maintained this military capability, this could be its first military foray into the Caribbean since the Cold War. And that is a line the Kremlin does not cross lightly or unconsciously.

It appears that, for most of the flight, the Blackjacks were escorted by NATO and U.S. warplanes — a reminder that they were quickly detected and intercepted and that they likely would have been destroyed quickly in a shooting war. But Washington is not in a shooting war with Russia; it will have little option but to tail the jets as they conduct exercises over international waters over the next few days before they are scheduled to return to Moscow.

For Venezuela, this is an opportunity to needle the United States by lending its territorial proximity to Russia. Caracas seeks to put a great deal of distance between itself and Washington, with which Chavez has long attempted to compete for regional leadership and influence. Venezuela also seeks to make Russia into its very own great power ally; but without a return to Cold War rivalries, Venezuela would have nothing to offer Moscow.

For Russia's part, the precedent has now been set, and it only remains to be seen how regular a presence the Kremlin will attempt to sustain in this regard. But the larger significance is that Russia is reminding the United States of a time when Cuba was a Soviet ally, when Nicaragua was in play and when Grenada was on the verge of becoming a major Soviet air base, forcing the United States to invade. Washington generally enjoys a great deal of geopolitical insulation from the troubles of the world on the far side of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. This is the heart of the Monroe Doctrine and affords the United States an enviable geopolitical position. But it also makes the Americans extremely sensitive to this very sort of jab by the Russians.

After suffering NATO in its own backyard for years, Russia is now on the verge of playing hardball with the United States in its front yard. Events thus far may be more of a signal to Washington to back off of Russia's periphery — in exchange, Moscow may leave the United States' sphere of interest alone. But given Washington's distraction in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia may never have a better chance to attempt to consolidate a foothold in the Caribbean. It may not necessarily be possible, and it may not necessarily succeed in the long run. But neither precludes Moscow from making the attempt — and in so doing, potentially significantly altering the global geopolitical landscape.

By George Friedman

This analysis was just a fraction of what our Members enjoy, Click Here to start your Free Membership Trial Today! If a friend forwarded this email to you, click here to join our mailing list for FREE intelligence and other special offers. Please feel free to distribute this Intelligence Report to friends or repost to your Web site linking to www.stratfor.com .

© Copyright 2008 Stratfor. All rights reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis.

STRATFOR Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules