Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold, Silver & HUI Stocks Big Pictures - 28th Sep 20
It’s Time to Dump Argentina’s Peso - 28th Sep 20
Gold Stocks Seasonal Plunge - 28th Sep 20
Why Did Precious Metals Get Clobbered Last Week? - 28th Sep 20
Is The Stock Market Dow Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern? - 28th Sep 20
Gold Price Setting Up Just Like Before COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready! - 27th Sep 20
UK Coronavirus 2nd Wave SuperMarkets Panic Buying 2.0 Toilet Paper , Hand Sanitisers, Wipes... - 27th Sep 20
Gold, Dollar and Rates: A Correlated Story - 27th Sep 20
WARNING RTX 3080 AIB FLAWED Card's, Cheap Capacitor Arrays Prone to Failing Under Load! - 27th Sep 20
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelerting Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Strong US Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices

Commodities / Crude Oil Jul 28, 2018 - 04:00 PM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Commodities

The strength of the U.S. dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices.

President Trump's trade war with China, which is still in its early stages, has already battered the yuan. The dollar has gained more than 8 percent against the Chinese currency since March. As Reuters points out, in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive.


But it isn't just the yuan that has been knocked down a peg or two by the greenback. The U.S. dollar index is at its strongest in a year, pushed along by steady rate tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve and solid GDP growth.

There is a bit of a feedback effect at hand as well. As the Fed tightens rates and pushes up the dollar, emerging market currencies suffer from sudden shocks, sometimes severe. Argentina, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa have seen significant depreciations in their currencies this year. As capital flees some of these emerging markets and flows into safe haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar, it only magnifies the divergence between the greenback and other currencies.

The problem for many emerging markets is that oil prices have been going up at the same time. Typically, oil prices trade inversely to the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive to much of the world, so oil prices typically fall as the dollar rises. But the dollar and oil have been climbing in tandem for much of this year. This amplifies the pain for many consumers around the world.

Painful price increases threatens oil demand. To some extent, governments around the world are trying to cushion the blow through price caps, fuel subsidies and currency support. Those market interventions from several countries could keep oil demand growth from diving too much, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note in early June.

But those measures come at a huge cost to public coffers, and might not be enough to stave off demand destruction and/or economic slowdown. The hit to oil demand will be much larger than would be the case if the dollar had not strengthened. Dealing with a rise in oil prices is one thing, but for motorists in emerging markets to swallow double-digit price increases at the pump, driven by weakening currencies relative to the dollar, is an entirely different thing.

Even Donald Trump is a bit wary of the strengthening dollar, recognizing that it poses challenges to the U.S. economy. "I'm not thrilled," Trump said in a CNBC interview last week "Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don't really — I am not happy about it. But at the same time I'm letting them do what they feel is best."

It's an odd position, however, since Trump's trade war with China is helping to push the dollar and the yuan in opposite directions. China's central bank has also taken the opportunity to loosen its grip over the yuan, which will save it from having to blow huge sums of reserves to keep the currency fixed, as it did during the summer of 2015. Of course, the U.S. has complained to China for years, demanding less intervention to artificially suppress the value of the yuan. Now that the yuan is sinking, Washington isn't pleased. "This really shows the folly of waging trade war," said Zhang Bin, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the FT. "China wants to promote market-based reform [of the exchange rate]. Isn't this what America has been hoping for?"

Because China is a voracious consumer of commodities, including crude oil, the compounding effect of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a weaker yuan creates new headwinds for the oil market. In fact, even as oil prices suffered a correction over the past few weeks, prices have not continued on a downward trajectory, even as other commodities have suffered from a deeper rout. Copper, for instance, is down 18 percent since May. "A looming trade war and uncertainty about Chinese demand weigh on commodity prices and related currencies," Georgette Boele, currency and metals strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV, told Bloomberg. "As long as there's nervousness about China, commodities will remain exposed to the trade war."

Commodity prices are often a key barometer for global demand, which is to say that the recent selloff has some analysts worried about the health of the global economy.

The oil supply outages in Venezuela, Libya and Iran could yet drive oil prices much higher. But the strength of the U.S. dollar is a major roadblock. If the supply outages do not materialize, there is much more room on the downside for oil prices.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Link to original article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Strong-Dollar-Could-Cap-Oil-Prices.html

© 2018 Copyright OilPrice.com - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

OilPrice.com Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules