US Midterm Elections Forecast 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Several patrons have messaged me asking for my views on the mid-term US elections. Whilst I’ve not been following these elections too closely i.e. in terms of betting on them, nevertheless here is my view which is primarily based on the fact that usually the party that holds the White House tends to do badly in the mid-terms.

Trump’s approval ratings whilst off their lows further support the view that the Republicans are going to do badly tonight.

How badly ?

Well the key debate in the media is whether the Democrats will take the House for which they need to GAIN 23 seats for a total of at least 218 from the current 195, which represents a near 12% increase in their number of seats.

In terms of historic perspective swings to the Democrats  tend to start at 30 and range upto 100. Which suggest the Democrats are very likely to achieve their minimum target and more. Thus it is very probable that the Democrats will win the House with a sizeable majority. Probably ending the night on tally of over 230 seats, maybe as high as 240 seats.

SENATE
On the plus side for Republicans is that they are very likely to retain control of the Senate due to the fact that 42 republican seats are NOT up for election, leaving just 9 republican seats up for grabs of which the Democrats only stand a fighting chance in 2. So the odds of Democrats winning even 1 of the 2 possible seats is very low. And given that 26 Democrat seats are up for election then maybe the Republicans will get a surprise Senate seat win off the Democrats and increase their Senate majority!

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Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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