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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Why 90% of Traders Lose

InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade Jan 08, 2019 - 10:11 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

InvestorEducation

The failure rate for financial market and commodity traders has remained at a consistently high 90% for many decades, this despite all of the advances in information technology, flood of new learning materials that is churned out annually, therefore why is it that 90% of traders still end up losing?

Learn to TradeIn my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact listening to those 90% of failed traders who proceeded them that went on to comprise what is trading markets sales industry, perpetually churning out a never ending stream of materials, methods and signal services of how to trade, that invariably don't pan out in reality.

Then there is the commentariat, again 90% of which comprises failed traders. Who may have tried to trade but failed so have gone on to become market reporters, mostly providing rear view mirror in hindsight market commentary, or so vague in outlook that all eventualities are covered as they hope to become the next big media stars, appearing on the likes of CNBC so as to turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards a similar fate.


This explains why the mainstream financial press can literally miss WHOLE Bull and Bear markets despite trends that end up spanning many, many years. They can be recognised by their rhetoric such as the perpetual end of the trend is imminent mantra that is based on fundamentally flawed understanding of what actually moves markets, which is why they failed to succeed in trading in the first place.

Given that 90% of traders fail, it can be assumed that that at least 90% of those that provide financial commentary are failed traders that spend their time churning out books, materials and commentary rather than actually engaging in trading which culminates in the big name media whores that we see prancing between make up rooms and TV Studio's, usually regurgitating what other failed traders have already stated or make such weak statements that they can easily be applied to any outcome i.e. that the market will definitely fall, but then again it may definitely rise.

The media whores are well practiced in applying such phraseology that ensures that they can always claim victory for publicity purposes whatever the actual outcome is, as the viewers are left to perceive whatever they want to in the media whore sales men's commentary, based on their own pre-existing market bias. The mainstream financial media is more than eager to push the selectively edited past commentary that results in nothing more than blatant misleading advertisements masquerading as financial market commentary. Stop for a moment and dissect what the latest utterance of a media whore actually is and you will soon realise the game of deception that is being played in an attempt to hook you in towards ultimately purchasing a product or service.

This is the reality of what traders face where perhaps as little as 3% of the material floating out there is produced by successful traders because successful traders are primarily going to be focused on trading rather than writing about trading or marketing trading services, with probably only enough spare time to occasionally share their ideas and thoughts on market direction, compare this against the book factories that churn out as many as several titles per year that virtually ensures that at least 95% of your trading book shelf is packed full of garbage, totally useless, and you know it!

Still it could be worse, academic economists inhabit a zone that is based purely on mumbo jumbo that is guaranteed to result in unforeseen outcomes, for academic economists tend to be the second greatest media whores just a step down from politicians, who exist purely to give off the air of authority and certainty as though economics is a science when in reality it is pseudo science more akin to the art of psychologically managing the general populations expectations aka economic propaganda than in determining any sense of economic reality.

Economic theories are just that theories that have been modeled on selective editing of past economic data for political purposes which every trader should know (failing or successful) is just over optimised back fitting onto selective past trends that proves totally worthless going forward. Which is why I am skeptical of economic data, take what it suggests with a giant pinch of salt.

So given the twin forces at work of an markets sales industry, coupled with pseudo science of economics blasted at full volume across the media, then it is no wonder that new traders drowning in the swamp of misinformation are also going to end up becoming FAILED TRADERS.

Therefore in this series of articles and videos, (most of which will be exclusive to Patrons) I will share my real secrets for successful trading, based on my over 30 years of trading experience which includes being one of the few who actually foresaw AND BEAT the Great Crash of 1987.

Planned lessons include:

1. The Real Secret for Successful Trading

2. How to Determine Trend

3. TRIGGERS - Buy & Sell, Stops and Limits

4. Trading Check List

Your Analyst,

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

The rest of this analysis is first being made Patrons who support my work. So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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