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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Sep 19, 2019 - 07:10 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

History may not repeat itself to the letter but it certainly rhymes. That’s what the Fed watchers would say now. The Fed cut the interest rates for the second time this year and the price of gold declined again. What is going on?

Fed Trims Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on September 17-18th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the second time this year:


Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

Interestingly, the decision was again not unanimous, as Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren wanted to keep the rates unchanged. It suggests that there is important internal opposition to further cuts in interest rates. On the other hand, James Bullard also dissented, but because he wanted to slash the federal funds rate by 75 basis points. Wow, does he sense the impeding recession?

Apart from the cut to lower level and Bullar’s dissent, the newest FOMC statement hasn’t changed much. It just noted that household spending growth had been recently strong, while business investment and exports had weakened.

The fresh economic projections were also largely unchanged from June. The forecasts for GDP and the unemployment rate barely moved compared to the June economic projections. More importantly, the outlook for inflation stayed as before, which means that the FOMC does not see disinflationary risks but believes that inflation will reach the target in 2021. If this is the case, there is no rationale for further interest rate cuts. And indeed, although the FOMC reduced them yesterday, they showed little appetite for further moves. The dot plot reveals that the median assessment of appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 1.9 percent for this and the next year. It is, of course, lower than in March, but this is exactly the level at which the federal funds rate stands right now. In other words, the FOMC members do not see further interest rates cuts in 2019 or 2020. What is more, the dot plot suggests one 25-basis point hike in 2021 and another in 2022.

Implications for Gold

The price of gold plunged below $1,500 after the release of the FOMC statement, as the chart below shows.

Chart 1: Gold prices from September 17 to September 19, 2019


Our Readers should not be surprised. We repeated many times that “buy the rumor, sell the news” is a very common trading strategy in the gold market. Just as gold prices were increasing after interest rate hikes in 2018, they are falling after the cuts.

Moreover, just as in July, the cut was hawkish or less dovish than expected. President Trump was clearly dissatisfied with “only” a 25-basis points move. He tweeted: “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!” Poor Powell, he tries his best, but nobody loves him – neither the President, neither Wall Street.

Traders expected either a larger move or hints for further cuts in the remaining of 2019, but the dot plot suggests that the Fed will pause later this year. In other words, the dot plot seems to confirm Powell’s description of the July’s cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” not as the “beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”.

In his latest press conference, Powell confirmed his view. He said:

What we believe we’re facing here, what we think we’re facing here is a situation which can be addressed and should be addressed with moderate adjustments to the federal funds rate.

As you can see, “moderate adjustments,” not aggressive cutting. We can just repeat our previous comment on this: “Not good news for gold”. You see, although the cut and the pause in the tightening cycle is fundamentally positive for the gold market (it removes a downward pressure on the prices), the yellow metal will probably not rally without the aggressive long rate cutting cycle.

However, despite Powell’s claims that the recent cuts are just an adjustment, we could see a more aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. This week, the New York Fed made an emergency injection of more than $125 billion to end a liquidity squeeze in the money market. It may be just an aberration, but history teaches us that such aberrations signal more problems in the financial markets in the future – and such problems usher in better times for gold bulls.

If you enjoyed the above analysis, we invite you to check out our other services. We provide detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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