Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger - 12th Aug 22
Apple Exec Gets World's 1st iPhone 14 for Daughters 14th Birthday Surprise Present Unboxing! - 12th Aug 22
Steps to remember while playing live roulette online - 12th Aug 22
China Bank Run Protests - Another Potential Tiananmen Square Massacre? - 11th Aug 22
Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? - 11th Aug 22
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Heading Lower – Setup Like 1989-03 - 11th Aug 22
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? - 11th Aug 22
There's a Hole in My Bucket Dear Liza, UK Summer Heatwave Plants Watering Problem Song - 11th Aug 22
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis - 9th Aug 22
FREETRADE Want to LEND My Shares to Short Sellers! - 8th Aug 22
Stock Market Unclosed Gap - 8th Aug 22
The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... - 8th Aug 22er
WARNING Corsair MP600 NVME2 M2 SSD Are Prone to Failure Can Prevent Systems From Booting - 8th Aug 22
Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Stock Market Opinions - 6th Aug 22
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! - 6th Aug 22
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING - 5th Aug 22
Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air - 5th Aug 22
SILVER’S BAD BREAK - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State - 4th Aug 22
Should We Be Prepared For An Aggressive U.S. Fed In The Future? - 4th Aug 22
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? - 4th Aug 22
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt - 4th Aug 22
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? - 4th Aug 22
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 - 3rd Aug 22
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ - 3rd Aug 22
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing - 3rd Aug 22
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" - 31st July 22
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 - 31st July 22
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation - 31st July 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Oct 01, 2019 - 08:25 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.


And then we have political chaos, both in the UK where we have a crippled Prime Minister trying to trigger a general election so that Britain can get the damn Brexit done and dusted instead of the permanent paralysis that the UK finds itself in, one of a REMAIN Westminster majority determined to subvert the will of the people where the latest ploy deployed is the so called SURRENDER ACT aimed at ensuring that Britain can NEVER actually LEAVE the EU hence the Governments desperate attempts to trigger a general election that Westminster's REMAIN MP's are running scared of.

Which brings us to the United States and the launch of formal Impeachment inquiry by the Democrats against Trumps various nefarious activities. The only surprising thing is that it's taken this long to get things going for before Trump took office I imagined he would been ejected from office by now. So has done well to be still around in the White house. Nevertheless it is inducing market uncertainty.

That and growing economic uncertainty in advance of soon to kick in corporate earnings season all of which have contributed towards putting downward pressure on stock prices these past few weeks that saw the Dow retreat from it's attempt at setting a new all time high early September with it's last close at 26,820.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019

My in-depth analysis of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in a forecast for the Dow to trend towards 28,000 by Mid September 2019 before correcting into October.

My last update of 31st August 2019 had the Dow at a significant deviation from the trend forecast of -4.5%.

However that analysis concluded to expect a strong September with the Dow at targeting a trend to at least 27,400 for a probable double top pattern ahead of a seasonal weak October that 'should' set the stage for a Santa rally.

31st August 2019 - Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide

This analysis suggests the Dow should have another run higher at it's all time high during September, i.e. target a break of 27,360 before it can reach 28,000 by perhaps early October. However, more probable now is that the Dow is unable to break above 27,360 and turns lower for October with a double top pattern of sorts.

So in conclusion, in terms of the bull market, nothing much has changed, were still trending towards 28,000, even if we fails to get there this time i.e. by the end of September ahead of a weak October. Likewise expectations for later in the year remain largely intact i.e. a santa rally towards Dow 30k. The prospects for which I will seek to update towards the end of September.

Which brings us to the current state and the conclusion of my trend forecast.

The Dow had a strong September, hitting the 1st target high of 27,300 before turning lower to the last close of 26820 with a pattern that resembles a double top of sorts. Therefore this analysis will seek to determine the trend for the remainder of 2019, where my existing expectations are for a weak October, followed by a strong November / December towards a new all time high as iterated in my updates of the past 6 months.

The rest of this analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast into the end of 2019 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019

  • Yield Curve Inversion Current State
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • ELLIOTT WAVES 
  • Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Long-term Trend Analysis
  • MACD
  • VIX
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis

  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • US Dollar Index
  • NASDAQ
  • EuroDollar Futures
  • EUR/RUB

Recent Analysis includes:

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in