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Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017?

ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Nov 28, 2019 - 07:45 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.


The mainstream media is reporting that Yougov called the 2017 general election correctly by forecasting a hung parliament with the Tories falling to just 302 seats against the eventual tally of 318, Labour on 269 against 262 actual. Which would have been the most accurate of the 2017 general election forecasts were it not for one niggling fact.

That was NOT their primary forecast for 2017! What Yougov did was to publish TWO CONTRARY forecasts. Where the MRP basis was a secondary forecast against their PRIMARY projection for the Tories to win an INCREASED majority!

So that there is no confusion, here is what the Yougov site looked like hours before polling day.

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority"

Instead the most accurate predictor of the 2017 General Election was UK HOUSE PRICES! As it had been for 2015, and 2010!

So why is the mainstream press peddling half truths? When Yougov clearly called it for Tories to increase their majority? This illustrates why the mainstream press is dieing because it really is just FAKE NEWS!

The starting point for any forecast for the December 2019 General election would be an analysis of what were the most accurate predictors for the 2017 General election, as lessons learned to applied to this election towards resolving in a most probable outcome forecast.

So these are my 9 key lessons learned from 2017 towards accurately forecasting the outcome of the December 12th general election.

Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017

And here is what UK house prices are forecasting for the 2019 general election UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast (that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work).

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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