Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17
Does Stripping Streets of ALL of their Trees Impact House Prices (Sheffield Example)? - 15th Nov 17
The Trump Administration’s IP Battle Against China - 15th Nov 17
5 Ways Bitcoin can Improve its Odds of Becoming the Future of Money - 15th Nov 17
These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big - 15th Nov 17
Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection - 14th Nov 17
Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast - 14th Nov 17
The Unbearable Slowness Of Fourth Turnings - 14th Nov 17
Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More - 14th Nov 17
Could This Be The End for Tesla? - 14th Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Fourth Cycle: More Evidence of Stock Market Downturn - 14th Nov 17
Why Having Good Credit Is Important If You Want to Invest - 14th Nov 17
The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts - 13th Nov 17
How the US Has Secretly Subsidized China to Produce Eco-Unfriendly Solar Panels - 13th Nov 17
The Increasingly Unstable Middle East Must Be On Every Investor’s Radar - 13th Nov 17
Stock Market Critical Supports are Being Challenged - 13th Nov 17
The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 - 13th Nov 17
Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally, Will Stocks Continue Higher? - 13th Nov 17
Is Hillary Just the “Fall Guy” for the Intel Agencies and their Moneybags Bosses? - 12th Nov 17
Stock Market Correction Phase - 12th Nov 17
Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - 12th Nov 17
Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - 11th Nov 17
E-franc, E-krona... E-volution? - 11th Nov 17
Gold Investment Stalled - 11th Nov 17
Smart Ways to Get Loans Online - 11th Nov 17
What Can Pot Teach Us About Economics and Government? - 10th Nov 17
Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? - 10th Nov 17
Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? - 10th Nov 17
Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation - 10th Nov 17
The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday - 10th Nov 17
Where to Start Your Cryptocurrency Company - 10th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Trading Free Week

UK CPI Inflation Explodes Higher to 5.2%

Economics / Inflation Oct 14, 2008 - 04:41 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe inflationary spike higher continued on release of September's inflation data which saw the CPI measure burst through 5% to hit 5.2% from 4.7% the month before. CPI crossed above the RPI inflation measure for the first time in 7 years which now stands at 5%, as the below graph illustrates.


However inflation data is lagging the real economy by between 5 and 8 months and does not yet reflect the sharp slowdown of the UK economy over the last 3 months, nor is the impact of the fall in oil prices from $147 to $80 over the last 2-3 months. Therefore this implies inflation data will start to become muted in the coming months in advance of a similarly sharp drop on par with the spike higher. On a further negative for the government September RPI data is used for indexation of pensions and benefits which is likely to cost an additional of as much as £5 billion, as well as igniting public sector demands for higher pay deals despite the onset of recession.

However as I pointed out in the UK interest rate forecast for 2009 that cuts in interest rates and bailouts will result higher inflation further out and therefore puts sterling at a risk of foreign investors starting to view the UK as a big version of Iceland. I first wrote that the Bank of England would be forced by the government to abandon inflation targeting and cut interest rates no matter how high inflation rose as long ago as in May of this year UK House Prices Tumbling- Interest Rate Conundrum. The interest rate forecast continues to imply deep cuts regardless of the rate of inflation, having been confirmed by last Thursday's panic 0.5% co-ordinated cut by the BoE, US Fed and ECB.

UK interest Rate Forecast for 2009

The Bank of England continues to forecast that UK CPI inflation will be at 2% in 2 years time, which is precisely the same perpetual forecast that the Bank of England has been making since it was assigned the 2% inflation target some 5 years ago, during which time the Bank of England has only hit its target for 5 months or 8% of the time, just as the Bank of England 2 years ago was forecasting that UK inflation would be at 2% for September 2008 when it is clearly far from 2%.

Some in-experienced mainstream television commentators are mistakenly stating that prices will fall in the near future. That is incorrect the rate of overall prices rises will reduce, but we are not heading for falling prices as both the currency factor and the huge explosion in government borrowing due to the extra debt burden of £500 billion banking system bailout would cost the tax payer approx £25 billion a year in extra interest which effectively nearly doubles the countries official government debt of £590 billion which tends to exclude in what can be termed as creative accounting other public sector debt, such as un-funded public sector pension liabilities of more than £800 billion with other hidden debt totaling £100 billion would put real UK public debt at some £2 trillion or some 160% of annual GDP which is far above the governments official limit of 40% of GDP. However economic contraction will shrink UK GDP and hence the gap between spending and income will be again be filled by more debt. Therefore we could see public debt rise to as much as 100% of GDP and if the hidden debt is included, a rise to 200% of GDP. This is highly inflationary and is the primary reason for the relative weakness of sterling, as real returns turn further negative (inflation minus base rate = -0.70%).

My UK CPI inflation forecast covering the anticipated trend for the next 12 months will be published within the next 2 weeks, in advance of the UK Housing market forecast for the next few years as an update to the existing forecast as of August 2007.

Remember to subscribe to our FREE weekly newsletter for the Stock Market Crash Investment Strategies as well as the Real Secrets of Successful Trading on the 21st anniversary of 1987, that are to be emailed later this week.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife