Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Global Economic Outlook Suggests Concerted Interest Rate Cuts

Interest-Rates / Global Economy Oct 28, 2008 - 03:11 AM GMT

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Interest-Rates

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial panic that began in early September has been a body blow to global business confidence and the global economy which, according to the Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody's Economy.com , is now in recession.

How bad is the shape of the US and global economy?


As part of my ongoing research, I study a large array of economic statistics - usually in graphic form. Below are a number of charts, together with cryptic comments, that I have just compiled in order to cast some light on the economic outlook. As the saying goes, a picture tells a thousand words …

The recession in global manufacturing is intensifying.

grafiek-1.jpg

grafiek-2.jpg

Latest reports have it that China has joined the manufacturing recession.

grafiek-3.jpg

The global non-manufacturing (services) sector has also caved in, especially in the light of what is happening in the global banking sector.

grafiek-4.jpg

Even before the collapse of the global banking system a global recession was on the cards.

The US economy probably grew by 1.5% in the third quarter on a year ago basis, registering the first negative quarter-on-quarter growth. The liquidity crisis and the resulting stalling of global trade must have impacted severely on the purchasing managers' indices in October (to be published in November) and could be suggesting that the contraction of the US real GDP has gathered momentum.

grafiek-5.jpg

The same applies to Japan.

grafiek-6.jpg

The UK economy is also heading for zero growth compared to a year ago.

grafiek-7.jpg

Economic growth in Europe has stalled.

grafiek-8.jpg

China is not providing any relief either as growth is losing momentum rather rapidly.

grafiek-9.jpg

The poor global economic environment is reflected in lower commodity prices.

grafiek-10.jpg

As far as the current state of the US economy is concerned, the US 10-year government bond yield is an excellent indicator of the current state of the MZM money-supply velocity and is indicating that the velocity has stabilized at the lower levels.

grafiek-11.jpg

Given a constant velocity of 1.64, the current MZM money supply (mid-October) and a 4% inflation rate, it means the US economy has contracted by approximately 2% in the current quarter (the largest decline since 1980) or more than 7% quarter on quarter annualized, or -3% year on year (largest since 1982).

grafiek-12.jpg

Is there any light at the end of the tunnel? Desperate times call for desperate measures.

The Fed's bail-out of the banks and significant injection of funds have only addressed the solvency of banks and nothing has followed through to the economy. Not only is growth in money in circulation declining,

grafiek-13.jpg

but the actual money supply is also shrinking.

grafiek-14.jpg

To ensure that the money supply does not fall back to the trend line the Fed needs to pump $700 billion into the economy - incidentally the same as the recently enacted $700 billion bail-out law to inject money into banks.

Therefore, expect the same trend in the Fed funds rate as in previous recessions.

grafiek-15.jpg

Consumer confidence is the backbone of the US economy due to its relationship with the velocity of money supply in the economy.

grafiek-16.jpg

grafiek-17.jpg

The Fed needs to restore consumer confidence urgently to get the economy out of its current malaise. One major factor could be to relieve the interest burden on households. In fact, the Fed needs to cut the Fed funds rate aggressively and significantly in the near future. Failing to do so will effectively mean that the Fed is tightening its monetary policy,

grafiek-18.jpg

as the significant drop in commodity prices and especially the oil price will result in the US CPI inflation rate falling to approximately 1% in the next three months.

grafiek-19.jpg

In short, expect the FOMC to cut the Fed funds rate by at least 50 basis points on Wednesday, to be followed by a further rate cut probably by December or January next year. The European Central Bank and a number of other central banks will have to ease in a coordinated fashion.

Failure by the central banks to ease decisively will endanger the US and global economy even more as deflation looms around the corner.

Note :
All the graphs used in this post are based on data from I-Net Bridge.

 

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

By Dr Prieur du Plessis

Dr Prieur du Plessis is an investment professional with 25 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management.

More than 1200 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns (including his blog, Investment Postcards from Cape Town : www.investmentpostcards.com ). He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment.

Prieur is chairman and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management , which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and other African countries.

Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin , Dallas-based author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental Index™ methodology in the Pan-African area.

Prieur is 53 years old and live with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town , South Africa . His leisure activities include long-distance running, traveling, reading and motor-cycling.

Copyright © 2008 by Prieur du Plessis - All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Prieur du Plessis Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules