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STOCKS BEAR MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENT BIG PICTURE

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Sep 28, 2022 - 10:24 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

As my recent excerpt from my forthcoming mega-piece on the stock market illustrated, there is a 80% probability that the bear market has bottomed and so far it has not done anything to negate this probability. Therefore it looks like we are coming out of our 6th MAJOR discounting event since the BIG Financial Armageddon BAD BEAR MARKET bottomed in March 2009.

Zoom out of hourly and daily charts and see the true magnitude of the 2022 bear market that has so many worried of much worse to come.MSM coverage of the financial markets is akin to a fly buzzing around that needs swatting!


We have had the good fortune to have SIX DISCOUNTING EVENTS! What more could an investor ask for? If some one offered you Google today for 25% less than it was trading at yesterday would you buy it? YES? Then what are you waiting for? Google is 26% cheaper today than where it was at the start of the year!

Since my HAL9000 in December messaged me to expect a BEAR MARKET during 2022. That's at least a 20% drop from Dow 37,000, 29,600 which has been my price target since. Stocks Many of the target stocks having bid themselves up to loony toon prices during 2021 such as Nvidia, AMD, Amazon and many others have fallen much harder than 20%, many have near HALVED (AMD) and some fallen by 2/3rds (Nvidia)! What more could one ask for from a discounting event when focused on BUYING the DEVATION FROM THE HIGHS because unlike INFLATION this bear market IS TRANSITORY!

That has been my consistent message for the duration of this bear market. For the worst thing one can do is to know a bear market is coming but then FAIL to capitalise upon it because one got side tracked with irrelevance of trying to catch the exact bottom. There is no real benefit from in hindsight seeing that yes, the Dow bottomed near 29,600 that we will only know for sure when looking in the rear view mirror. What does it achieve unless one had managed to do the heavy lifting by actually getting INVESTED in target stocks during DISCOUNTING EVENT.

They call it a bear market, but it's not, it's a discounting event, 2008-2009 was a BEAR MARKET, 2000 to 2002 was a BEAR MARKET, 2022 is DISCOUNTING EVENT! That I eagerly anticipated and aimed to capitalise upon for the Greater the Deviation from the High then the Greater the BUYING Opportunity being Presented! Which in this respect has offered some fantastic opportunities, many of our wishes have come true! For instance back when Nvidia was high on cocaine at over $320, I was stating that I would not be surprised if Nvidia falls to below $140 a share. Hence marking my time until sub $140 materialised to near double my position to 35% invested in this key AI stock.

And so it has been for the duration of this "bear market", where the primary objective was on capitalising on this discounting event, i.e. new lows in target stocks to get invested so as to capitalise upon the next phase of this BULL MARKET that will likely run for another 5 years during which time we will perhaps get a couple more discounting events before we face a the prospects of a BEAR MARKET proper!

One needs to learn to embrace discounting events by understanding what they are and what they mean, instead I get the impression that perhaps as a function of an emotional response on reaction to FALLING prices the exact opposite tends to happen i.e. it appears the more stock prices fall the less inclined investors become to actually invest as the decline generates reasons for why it should continue.

TO GET DISCOUNTS PRICES MUST FALL!

I continue to bite the cherries as they come along whilst adding fresh funds so as to capitalise on the 6th discounting event since this bull market began in March 2009 because I embrace -

This analysis is an excerpt from September the Stock Markets WORST Month of the Year Could Deliver a Buying Opportunity that was as first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis includes -

Including access to my soon to be published extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed 1 year trend forecast into September 2023.

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your watching the British pound burn at the official rate of 9.4% per annum analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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