Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Consumer Spending Cutbacks Further Erode Retail Payrolls

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Nov 14, 2008 - 11:08 AM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe attached chart shows the deepening implications of falling retail sales on retail sector payrolls, highlighting the deteriorating role of the US consumer, especially as Democrats dampen hopes of any additional stimulus package before year-end.US Retail sales fell 2.8% in October vs expectations of a 2.1% decline, following a revised drop of 1.3%.

Sales excluding autos fell 2.2% against expectations of a 1.9% decline. The sales' decline marked the fourth straight monthly decrease, a pattern not seen in at least over the last 16 years . On a year-to-year basis, the decline is second straight annual decline, and only the fourth of such decline since 1992. Todays figures would highlight the dislocation of the US consumer, which was also borne in the 11th straight monthly decline in retail payrolls, surpassing the 8-month string of consecutive losses in 2001.

The higher than expected release of the preliminary November Univ of Michigan sentiment survey at 57.9 from Octobers 57.6 had a short-lived impact on appetite, even with the rise in the current conditions index to 61 from 58.4 and the marked decline in the 1-year inflation expectations index to a 2-year low of 2.9% from 3.9% . With stocks hovering between -2% and -1.2%, currencies are closely following the swing in risk pendulum.

EURUSD fails to break out of its $1.2730 trend line resistance charted from the Oct 29 high through the Nov 5 high. As long as stocks deepen their reversal from Thursdays gains, EURUSD is seen extending losses towards $1.2620s. One day after German growth was revealed to have slipped into recession by showing back to back quarterly declines, France escaped the recession by growing 0.1% in Q3, following a 0.3% contraction in Q2. But French payrolls did fall by 0.1% in Q3. Spain's Q3 GDP fell 0.2% after a 0.1% rise in Q2. Italy's Q3 GDP fell 0.5% following -0.4% in Q2, pushing the nation into its third recession in a decade.

GBPUSD retains composure after recovering from yesterdays latest 6-year lows of $1.4558, as sterling flexes its higher yielding muscle against USD, eyeing $1.4830. But the high expectations of further BoE rate cuts continue to limit sterlings gains, marking a clear resistance at $1.4920. USDJPY closely tracks equities, hovering within the 96-98 yen range, but overall resistance seen producing lower highs, limited at 98.20. Defensive flows are seen finding support at 96.60, with 96.20 providing a more solid foundation.

In the battle of high yielders, AUDNZD maintains its bullish tone after the Aussie hit a 5-week high of 1.1796, partly due to golds recovery and the worse than expected declines in NZ retail sales earlier this week. These dynamics are prevailing despite Australian rates standing at 5.25% versus 6.50% in New Zealand. Prolonged gains in risk appetite are seen favoring the Aussie towards 1.1900. Prolonged selling in equities is seen dragging AUDNZD towards 1.1680.

By Ashraf Laidi
CMC Markets NA

Ashraf Laidi is the Chief FX Analyst at CMC Markets NA. This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CMC Markets (US) LLC is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules