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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2008

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Dec 31, 2008 - 11:04 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the abysmal investment and economic year of 2008 draws to a close the following represent the 10 most popular financial markets analysis articles out of a pool of 5000 published during the year. For my financial markets outlook and forecasts special for 2009, subscribe to our always free newsletter.


1. The Great Depression 2008 - It can't happen to us....can it?9th Feb 2008 By Andy Sutton - Views 319,369

Webster's defines complacency as “1.satisfaction or contentment 2. smug self-satisfaction” There is probably not a better word to describe the current state of perception with regard to economic and financial malady. I had an interesting conversation the other night about exactly this topic and the individual I was speaking with had an overriding belief that we cannot suffer economically simply because the current generation is not prepared to deal with it. While I certainly agree with the latter assertion, the former continues to baffle me.

2. The Battle for America Has Begun- Strategic Forecasts14th May 2008 By Richard_C_Cook - Views 216,594

This article contains several forecasts, including the possible start of a major war with unforeseeable consequences, if the U.S. should happen to attack Iran . Of course it is in the nature of forecasts to be speculative. There are also forecasts that are intended to serve as warnings and thereby contribute to preventing the events under analysis from ever taking place.

3.UK House Prices Plunge Over the Cliff8th April 2008 By Nadeem Walayat - Views 211,597

UK house prices plunged by 2.5% in March (Halifax seasonally adjusted), the fall was far bigger than estimates and points to an acceleration in the pace of house price falls across the UK. The credit crisis is continuing to lead to a much tighter mortgage lending environment as highlighted in December's article . Mortgages continue to vanish from lenders shelves, with the total number of products having been reduced from 11,000 in May 2007 to just over 3000 today. The tightening is as a consequence of risk averse lenders seeking to repair their balance sheets from US mortgage related losses and batton down the hatches in advance of a surge in repossessions and mortgage defaults amongst UK borrowers.

4. Stock Market Trends for 20081st Jan 2008 By Clif_Droke - Views 208,753

The year 2007 was marked by pessimism, doom and gloom, and a never-ending fusillade of fear. The mainstream press never tired of hypnotizing into believing the stock market would collapse, a downfall which never materialized. With all the talk of the weak dollar and the predictions of a worsening liquidity crisis, prognosticators have all but written off the prospects for a bullish 2008. Calls for a recession in the year ahead are also on the rise. What these analysts have failed to grasp is that there never was a liquidity crisis to begin with. By definition, tight money is reflected by rising interest rates and falling money supply indicators. Just the opposite is the case today.

5. US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery5th Jan 2008 By John_Mauldin - Views 202,830

It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture. Will the Fed worry more about employment and recession or about the very real inflation pressures? Oil? Gold? Which way the dollar? I am going to make some unusual calls, as well as highlight what I think will be the next looming problem in the growing credit crisis. We'll try to cover it all in just a few pages.

6. US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse1st Feb 2008 By Mike_Whitney - Views 200,943

Somebody goofed. When Fed chairman Ben Bernanke cut interest rates to 3% yesterday, the price of a new mortgage went up. How does that help the flagging housing industry? About an hour after Bernanke made the announcement that the Fed Funds rate would be cut by 50 basis points the yield on the 30-year Treasury nudged up a tenth of a percent to 4.42%. The same thing happened to the 10 year Treasury which surged from a low of 3.28% to 3.73% in less than a week. That means that mortgages which are priced off long-term government bonds---will be going up, too.

7. How Safe is My FDIC-Insured Bank Account?14th Apr 2008 By Dr_Martenson - Views 192,873

Your bank account may not be as safe as you think (or hope). Taking a deeper look at the legal details and the financial depth of the FDIC reveals several troubling details that call into question how the FDIC would fare during a true banking crisis.  The US is coming out of a period of unusually low banking stress and failures. Since it is typical human behavior to let one's guard down during tranquil periods, we might legitimately ask if this has happened with respect to the FDIC. 

8. Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown:The 12 Steps to Financial Disaster12th Feb 2008 By Nouriel Roubini- Views 185,991

Why did the Fed ease the Fed Funds rate by a whopping 125bps in eight days this past January? It is true that most macro indicators are heading south and suggesting a deep and severe recession that has already started. But the flow of bad macro news in mid-January did not justify, by itself, such a radical inter-meeting emergency Fed action followed by another cut at the formal FOMC meeting.

9. The Real Reason for the Global Financial Crisis…the Story No One's Talking About 18th Sept 2008 By Shah Gilani - Views 151,903

Are you shell-shocked? Are you wondering what's really going on in the market? The truth is probably more frightening than even your worst fears. And yet, you won't hear about it anywhere else because “they” can't tell you. “They” are the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department, and they can't tell you what's really going on because there's nothing they can do about it, except what they've been trying to do – add liquidity.

10. Experts: Global Food Shortages Could ‘Continue for Decades' 22nd Feb 2008 By Joseph_Dancy- Views 140,859

Global inventories of grains are nearing historic lows, while twenty percent of the U.S. corn crop this coming year will be used for ethanol production. Meanwhile wheat, rice and soybean prices have reached all-time highs and corn prices have jumped to a 12-year high.

For my financial markets outlook and forecasts special for 2009, subscribe to our always free newsletter.

A happy and prosperous New Year to all!

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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