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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 22nd January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 22, 2009 - 09:04 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March renews this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1193.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1132.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1123.08.


The March NASDAQ 100 was up 4.00 pts. at 1185.50 as of 5:52 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 873.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 853.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 873.47. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 788.40. The March S&P 500 Index was down 6.20 pts. at 830.60 as of 5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend this week's decline below the previous reaction low crossing at 131-23. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 130-19. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 130-01.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 45.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11. Second support is December's low crossing at 38.00.

March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.42. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.92. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.48. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 134.26. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 112.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.63.

March Henry natural gas was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.520 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.429 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.429. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.529. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.520.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.85 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 87.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 88.37. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 85.49. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.25.

The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.165 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.897. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.165. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 128.110. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4587 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4503. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4587. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3612. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.3600.

The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9075 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8891. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9075. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .8613. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11048 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11158. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11049.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 850.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends Tuesday's rally, December's high crossing at 892.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 837.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 868.30. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 892.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 850.90. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing near 837.70.

March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.770 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.963 would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 11.505. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.770. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.972. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.963.

March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.16. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Wednesday's decline below the 20-day moving average, the reaction low crossing at 141.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 157.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 157.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 142.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 141.35.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee posted a key reversal up on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.49 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 26.16 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.69 are needed to temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of yesterday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 45.58 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 41.31 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 50.90 are needed to renew the rally off November's low.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.84 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 3/4. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.07. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.92 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 20 3/4-cents at 6.00 1/2.

Kansas City Wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/4 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 6.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend Wednesday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.98 3/4. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.24 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 9.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally and posted a new high for the year. The mid-range overnight close set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 321.50 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 35.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $0.35 at $65.35.

April hogs closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 64.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's gap crossing at 67.05. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.23. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 64.55. Second support is weekly support crossing at 64.37.

February bellies closed up $1.32 at $82.00.

February bellies closed higher on Wednesday posting an upside reversal as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

April cattle closed down $0.15 at 85.20.

April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 88.38 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

March feeder cattle closed down $0.40 at $91.35.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 95.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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