Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Asset Deflation Crashes Through the Window

Economics / Deflation Jan 01, 2005 - 11:33 PM GMT

By: Steve_Moyer

Economics

Sometimes you have to pay the piper, and we're going to have to pay the piper for a while. That's the way it is." ~ Frank Hamblen

The jig is up, my friends. The elephant that is asset deflation has slowly crashed through the big bay window straight onto our living room carpet and the no-fun part of speculative excess and leveraging (not to mention reckless borrowing and spending) has more than begun.

If you refuse to heed our advice, you will pay for it. Dearly.


One by one the commodities markets are going splat, proving once and for all that post-bubble phenomena will ultimately always win out over money-supply pumping, speculative frenzy, and the Pollyannaish, mistaken notion that "prices will always go up forever."

You don't even want to know how much money was bet on this naïve assumption. Most everyone jumped on board one way or another. "Prices always go up, right?" Isn't that what we've come to believe ever since our parents bought their houses for $10,000 -- you know, back when we were toddlers?

The commodities markets are figuring out that inflation is nowhere to be seen and that deflation is here. Crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gas, gold, silver, platinum....they're all joining in the deflation conga line. Inflation is getting priced right out of the equation. Interest rates are dropping, too.

That ol' yield curve inversion was right again, dad gummit.

Homebuilders are quaking in their boots as right before your very eyes, ordinary folks have figured out that if they wait 'til next year, prices will be lower. Soon they will figure out that prices will be a LOT lower. The speculators have run kicking and screaming from the housing market (step one) and the general consensus is already that the "housing boom is over." Lower interest rates aren't helping at all.

You should probably get accustomed to the following, coming-soon-to-the-business-section-of-your-local-newspaper phraseology: Oversupply, excess inventory, "hard landing," foreclosures, "upside-down" mortgages, contract cancellations, "fire-sales," bankruptcies, foreclosures, bank failures, credit crunch, credit contraction, bank crisis, Fannie Mae crisis, liquidity crisis, real estate deflation, asset deflation, price deflation, foreclosures, meltdown. Real estate values will fall from peak values somewhere in the range of 50% to 90%, depending on area, location, property type, "intrinsic value" and scarcity.

If you don't realize how much this economy has been built (on stilts) with money ordinary citizens borrowed against their homes, you really haven't been paying attention. With virtually no U.S. savings to back it up (why save when you are certain rising home prices will be there to bail your finances out?), there is nothing left to help withstand a hard landing in real estate. We've said all along we expect to see a Japan-style twelve-year gradual real estate deflation; more and more it seems there will be a huge ratcheting-down at some point, as well. Simply too much has been bet on the same horse. Geez, the whole world economy is essentially bet on the good ol' American zero-down, interest-only mortgage.

For those of you who think the Fed can engineer their way out of this inevitable mess, just understand that that money-supply concept is built on people maintaining their willingness to borrow even more money. But history shows that when folks see asset values declining (and debts mounting), they lose their appetite to borrow more and banks become much more hesitant to lend them money. Short of dropping cash from helicopters (hello, Ben Bernanke), the Fed will effectively be wielding a popgun in its effort to beat back that massive elephant.

All of you who made bets in the other direction have a chance to get out now before the real pain begins. If you have leveraged anything, it is time to de-leverage -- now! Sell your stocks, precious metals and all real estate (save for possibly your home and any property you won't mind owning for the next fifteen years while values decline relentlessly as the Greenspan bubbles deflate). If you are able to set aside a good chunk of cash (put it in "safe" vehicles, like the T. Rowe Price Treasury Money account), you will be in position to make a lot of money in the next decade or so. It is very likely you will be able to buy assets for prices significantly lower than they are today.

Keep in touch. We'll be here to guide you through the pain. The fact is you can prosper on the other side. Big time.

By Steve Moyer
StephenLMoyer@aol.com
PonderThis.net

Copyright © 2005-2006 Steve Moyer
He has been an investment real estate broker since 1982. He is a columnist and the assistant editor of the monthly newsletter, Ponder This .... www.ponderthis.net .


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules