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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Volatility

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: EWI

"Note the succession of higher closing low relative to higher highs in..."

First, just a quick basic fact about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the stock market's "fear gauge": the lower the reading, the higher the complacency among investors. Higher readings indicate increased investor nervousness.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 07, 2021

Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 07, 2021

Volatility Spike Shocks Markets – Resets Trend Systems / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent volatility spike in the VIX prompted a very quick downturn in price levels across all US major Indexes over the past few trading days  This sharp decline, although only lasting four trading days, prompted many systems to warn of a potentially much deeper price correction.  As of the close of trading on Friday, January 29, 2021, it looked like a deep correction in price was setting up.  Our proprietary BAN Trader Pro system also generated a “trend reset” trigger on Friday.  This means our systems expected a change in trend, suggesting a bearish price trend was setting up, based on this spike in volatility and what appeared to be a moderately deep price trend. 

VIX Hiccup Shocks Market Traders

The reality is that this downside trend move took place while a number of other factors were playing out.  First, the Reddit group was targeting certain sectors/symbols in addition to the fact that the markets had already rallied a substantial amount since the November 2 election.  This spike in the VIX index shocked a number of people and suggested a change in price trend.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

Have We Seen The Peak In The Stock Market VIX? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent price breakdown in the US stock market (near the end of February 2020) prompted a very big spike in the VIX – could we see another HUGE spike with a deeper price selloff in the near future?

Our researchers believe this first downside price rotation in the US stock market may be just the first downside move in what may become a “waterfall” price event where price declines in a series of downside price waves reaching an ultimate support level.  The way the VIX works is to attempt to normalize implied volatility based on available options call and put data over a 30-day span.  The process of normalizing this data attempt to eradicate outlier data from the equation.  Thus, a VIX level of 40 has likely resulted in completed data that attempts to eliminate outlier data points that may have resulted in a much higher VIX value.

After this recent rally in the VIX level, the current normalization process will likely take the current range of the VIX (options data) into consideration for future VIX levels.  Thus, in order for the VIX to reach levels above 40 again, a much bigger downside price move would have to take place – possibly pushing the SPY to levels near $260 or lower.  A move like this would have to happen in an aggressive type of price decline in order for the VIX to rally back above 40.  Is this something we should expect in the near future?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Stock Market VIX Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

VIX

VIX is in a falling range from 26 to 13. Which should be bullish for stocks. However, the pattern is resembling that of October / November last year, which was a prelude to the Decembers steep sell off. August saw a higher high and September a high low. So we could be witnessing the calm before the storm.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's my quick look at the VIX

VIX

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 04, 2019

Stock Market VIX Likely to Pop Before March 21 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon.  Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.

Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently.  We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 10, 2018

What happens to the Stock Market when VIX closes below 14 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Troy_Bombardia

VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Stock Market Volatility Attributed to 'Shenanigans' / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Michael Ballanger explores the maneuvering he believes underlies current market fluctuations.

Back in January, I discussed the likelihood that global equity markets were approaching simultaneous tipping points beyond which legions upon legions of GenX-ers and Millennials would be thrown to the wolves by failing to recognize the financial mania engulfing them. I alluded to it being "Time for the Beast to Exhale," and within a few days, my volatility trade (UVXY) exploded to the upside as the "beast," better known as the global stock market ascent, finally exhaled and fell 3,300 Dow Jones points in a week.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 02, 2017

Volatility: Dead - or Just "Sleeping"? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: EWI

Learn about the danger of "quiet markets" (and what happens after)

Watch as our own Murray Gunn explains why you shouldn't get too comfortable with the lack of volatility in the markets.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

Former Lehman Brothers Trader: Traders Shorting VIX Will Blow Themselves Up / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : The New York Times’ DealBook had a great piece of journalism a couple of days ago about short VIX carry monkeys. Well, that is what I call them.

The article features a former Target logistics manager who has goosed his net worth up to $12 million by betting that the VIX will go down. He is in the process of raising $100 million for a VIX-smashing hedge fund.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Stock Market XIV Starting To Crack And The VIX Ends Its Streak / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Submissions

Mike Golembesky: Recent Price Action

This week the XIV continued to grind higher finally reaching a high of 96.98 on Wednesday afternoon. This high was followed by a very small move to the downside late in the day on Wednesday.

Thursday morning saw a slight recovery but by the noon lunch hour, the XIV started showing signs of weakness. By 12:30 the XIV began to move sharply lower finally bottoming at the 89.28 level, some 7.5% off of the high of the day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 30, 2017

Three Main Lies About Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Adam_ODell

Volatility gets a bad rap.

The media typically portrays it as the financial world’s evil villain personified, saying things like…

“Volatility reared its ugly head on Monday.”

Or…

“Volatility is striking fear into the heart of the masses.”

You can almost picture the CGI monster Hollywood would create – the “Volatility Viper” – with its ten snake heads and blood-dripping fangs, snapping at Wall Street suits as they run for their lives.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 23, 2017

Risk measurement? Volatility doesn’t cut it / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Submissions

Henrique Schneider writes: Almost every investor and almost every portfolio use volatility as an indication of risk. There’s nothing awfully wrong with that. But some investors and some portfolios reduce risk to volatility. And this is a serious error, since gauging on volatility is myopic, misinformed and revenue-averse. Why?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Stock Market VIX Cycles Set to Explode in March/April 2017 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My recent analysis of the markets has shown what I believe to be an explosion in market volatility set to starting happening between February 21, 2017 and March 30, 2017.  The historical VIX cycles have been running about 18~22 week intervals for expansion and extreme volatility levels.  The period August 2015 to January 2016 represented roughly 5 months.  The period between January 2016 to June 2016 represented roughly 5 months.  The period between June 2016 to Early November 2016 represented roughly 5 months (just a little short of 5 months in reality).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

This Election Marks the Beginning of Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Volatility is high going into this election (because nobody knows what will happen, and there is a lot at stake). People think that after the election, the uncertainty will be out of the way, and volatility will subside.

Will it?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Stock Market VIX / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

The current VIX Index (Volatility Index) chart is posted below going back to 2015.

Please note the following: The long term trend has been down with each successive peak being lower. (A lower VIX correlates with a higher stock market and a higher VIX with a lower stock market.)

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Stock Market Caution ... / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

Time goes on, but risk levels remain high ... here is why ...

Take a look at this 10 year chart of the VIX that we posted below and observe two things.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Is Stock Market VIX Really OK? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

Yesterday, the VIX closed at 15.58, so it looks like it is okay. But is it really?

The verdict is actually not in yet ... take a look at October, April and now. April was the lowest reading, with October and now not as low as it was in April. With that condition, there remains a possibility of an inverted Head & Shoulder pattern which would have upside implications for the VIX.

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